if I die in a quake today I want my headstone to read "Ken Ring is still wrong"
There are on average 5 supermoons a year. According to Richard Nolle, we can expect natural disasters to occur within +/- 3 days of a supermoon, giving a 7 day window, meaning that there should be approximately 35 days in the year that the Earth is particularly susceptible to the forces of supermoons. This equates to 10% of the year. It follows that if earthquakes occur at random intervals, they would have a probability of occurring by chance within the supermoon effect window 10% of the time.
Between 1900 and today there have been 87 earthquakes with magnitudes of 8.0 or greater. If supermoons have a real, measurable effect, we should expect more than 10% of these earthquakes to have fallen within +/- 3 days of a supermoon. In total, 6 earthquakes of 8.0 magnitude or greater have fallen within this window, which is just under 7% of all such earthquakes, and less than would be expected by pure chance.
And for those who insist on moving the goalposts to within 1 or 2 weeks of a supermoon:
Within +/- 1 week of a supermoon:
Approximately 75 days of the year lie within 7 days of a supermoon. This is 21% of the year. If supermoons have a real, measurable effect on earthquakes of magnitude 8.0 or greater we would expect more than 21% of them to have occurred within 7 days of a supermoon. Since 1900, 13 out of 87 earthquakes of this magnitude, or 15% have fallen within 7 days of a supermoon, which is less than we would expect by pure chance.
Within +/- 2 weeks of a supermoon:
Approximately 145 days of the year lie within 14 days of a supermoon. This is 40% of the year. If supermoons have a real, measurable effect on earthquakes of magnitude 8.0 or greater we would expect more than 40% of them to have occurred within 14 days of a supermoon. Since 1900, 31 out of 87 earthquakes of this magnitude, or 36% have fallen within 14 days of a supermoon, which is less than we would expect by pure chance.
So using simple calculations of data on earthquakes and supermoons from the last 110 years, we can see that earthquakes of magnitude 8.0 or greater do not occur with a greater frequency within 3 days (as prescribed by Nolle), 1 week, or 2 weeks of a supermoon.
What about the elusive EXTREME supermoon?
No earthquakes of magnitude 8.0 or greater have ever occurred within 3 or 7 days of an extreme supermoon. 1 earthquake of this magnitude (the disaster in Japan) has ever occurred within 14 days or less. Using this 1 incidence of a large-scale earthquake occurring within 8 days (not the +/-3 days that Nolle prescribed), and ignoring every single other extreme supermoon since 1900 that did not cause a large-scale earthquake is nothing but anomaly hunting or “the exception that proves the rule”.
-- Jessiessica, #452 on No, the "supermoon" didn't cause the Japanese earthquake
I feel absolutely no guilt whatsoever in saying that Ken Ring and other proponents of "the moon causes earthquakes" are utterly and completely contemptible. It doesn't matter if they're being malicious. (Personally I think Ring is just plain greedy and seeking limelight.) By "predicting" quakes right now, particularly in Christchurch where everyone is very aware of the risk, they are doing the equivalent of shouting "fire!" in a crowded room. It's criminally irresponsible. Any fatal road accidents that happen among people leaving the city this weekend were/are/will be their fault.
Some people think statements like this are too harsh or that we're bullying Ken Ring. Apparently he's very upset by the reaction to his announcements.
I DON'T CARE. He's a charlatan and a fraud who's trying to make a few bucks by terrifying people.
Think about this: the aftermath of an earthquake can cost a government billions of dollars. There are a lot of earthquakes. Scientists have been trying to come up with ways to predict earthquakes for at least something like a century, because if they could do it, it would save countless lives. That kind of information would be worth more than I can even comprehend.
Which means supporters of Ken Ring must either think that all these scientists are so incompetent that either they never thought to check the effect of the moon (or they did check but weren't smart enough to see any correlation), or that every single one of them is involved in some kind of conspiracy in which they have all agreed to just ignore this method of predicting devastating natural disasters far in advance for some unknown reason. They are, however, smart enough to show fake proof of why the moon has no effect whatsoever, and also to fake up the statistics, even though the statistics are easy for laymen to check.
More likely is that they simply haven't thought through the progression of logic to reach the natural and inevitable conclusion. Which is another thing that makes me angry. Ken Ring's nonsense would have a pretty small effect if people were in a rational state of mind. Some people would still believe it, because there's a scary number of people who will accept things at face value even when they're easily looked into, but right now a lot of people aren't rational. We're tired. We're stressed. We've lost people and possessions and places dear to us. It's hard not to let emotions get the better of you, and it's very easy to give in to fear, even if logically, rationally, you don't really believe it's going to happen. He's not just shouting "fire" - he's shouting "fire" in a building that's just been rebuilt after burning down, in a room full of people uncomfortably aware that it could happen again, who are still trying to get their shit together after the last one.
Some defend themselves by claiming open-mindedness, but that doesn't, can't, apply, when the proof is already out there that he's wrong. I could do an entire post solely made of links to articles proving his utter wrongness. There's no need to wait to see if he's right. Even if there had been a huge earthquake right before noon, he'd still not be right, because his method doesn't work.
Which is really pathetic, when you consider that his method is pretty much akin to throwing out as many predictions as possible, as vaguely worded as possible, so as to catch as many earthquakes as possible.
But you know, apparently he never meant exactly the 20th, even though he specified that it would be shortly before noon. (He also said it would be in Christchurch, then in the south island, and another time that there would be a severe weather even somewhere in the world, and before Boxing Day reckoned there wouldn't be another big quake in Christchurch except actually there would and also a 6.3 totally counts as a 7+, right?)
This entry was originally posted at http://keieeeye.dreamwidth.org/169313.html. Feel free to comment there instead because LJ is a poo.
Between 1900 and today there have been 87 earthquakes with magnitudes of 8.0 or greater. If supermoons have a real, measurable effect, we should expect more than 10% of these earthquakes to have fallen within +/- 3 days of a supermoon. In total, 6 earthquakes of 8.0 magnitude or greater have fallen within this window, which is just under 7% of all such earthquakes, and less than would be expected by pure chance.
And for those who insist on moving the goalposts to within 1 or 2 weeks of a supermoon:
Within +/- 1 week of a supermoon:
Approximately 75 days of the year lie within 7 days of a supermoon. This is 21% of the year. If supermoons have a real, measurable effect on earthquakes of magnitude 8.0 or greater we would expect more than 21% of them to have occurred within 7 days of a supermoon. Since 1900, 13 out of 87 earthquakes of this magnitude, or 15% have fallen within 7 days of a supermoon, which is less than we would expect by pure chance.
Within +/- 2 weeks of a supermoon:
Approximately 145 days of the year lie within 14 days of a supermoon. This is 40% of the year. If supermoons have a real, measurable effect on earthquakes of magnitude 8.0 or greater we would expect more than 40% of them to have occurred within 14 days of a supermoon. Since 1900, 31 out of 87 earthquakes of this magnitude, or 36% have fallen within 14 days of a supermoon, which is less than we would expect by pure chance.
So using simple calculations of data on earthquakes and supermoons from the last 110 years, we can see that earthquakes of magnitude 8.0 or greater do not occur with a greater frequency within 3 days (as prescribed by Nolle), 1 week, or 2 weeks of a supermoon.
What about the elusive EXTREME supermoon?
No earthquakes of magnitude 8.0 or greater have ever occurred within 3 or 7 days of an extreme supermoon. 1 earthquake of this magnitude (the disaster in Japan) has ever occurred within 14 days or less. Using this 1 incidence of a large-scale earthquake occurring within 8 days (not the +/-3 days that Nolle prescribed), and ignoring every single other extreme supermoon since 1900 that did not cause a large-scale earthquake is nothing but anomaly hunting or “the exception that proves the rule”.
-- Jessiessica, #452 on No, the "supermoon" didn't cause the Japanese earthquake
I feel absolutely no guilt whatsoever in saying that Ken Ring and other proponents of "the moon causes earthquakes" are utterly and completely contemptible. It doesn't matter if they're being malicious. (Personally I think Ring is just plain greedy and seeking limelight.) By "predicting" quakes right now, particularly in Christchurch where everyone is very aware of the risk, they are doing the equivalent of shouting "fire!" in a crowded room. It's criminally irresponsible. Any fatal road accidents that happen among people leaving the city this weekend were/are/will be their fault.
Some people think statements like this are too harsh or that we're bullying Ken Ring. Apparently he's very upset by the reaction to his announcements.
I DON'T CARE. He's a charlatan and a fraud who's trying to make a few bucks by terrifying people.
Think about this: the aftermath of an earthquake can cost a government billions of dollars. There are a lot of earthquakes. Scientists have been trying to come up with ways to predict earthquakes for at least something like a century, because if they could do it, it would save countless lives. That kind of information would be worth more than I can even comprehend.
Which means supporters of Ken Ring must either think that all these scientists are so incompetent that either they never thought to check the effect of the moon (or they did check but weren't smart enough to see any correlation), or that every single one of them is involved in some kind of conspiracy in which they have all agreed to just ignore this method of predicting devastating natural disasters far in advance for some unknown reason. They are, however, smart enough to show fake proof of why the moon has no effect whatsoever, and also to fake up the statistics, even though the statistics are easy for laymen to check.
More likely is that they simply haven't thought through the progression of logic to reach the natural and inevitable conclusion. Which is another thing that makes me angry. Ken Ring's nonsense would have a pretty small effect if people were in a rational state of mind. Some people would still believe it, because there's a scary number of people who will accept things at face value even when they're easily looked into, but right now a lot of people aren't rational. We're tired. We're stressed. We've lost people and possessions and places dear to us. It's hard not to let emotions get the better of you, and it's very easy to give in to fear, even if logically, rationally, you don't really believe it's going to happen. He's not just shouting "fire" - he's shouting "fire" in a building that's just been rebuilt after burning down, in a room full of people uncomfortably aware that it could happen again, who are still trying to get their shit together after the last one.
Some defend themselves by claiming open-mindedness, but that doesn't, can't, apply, when the proof is already out there that he's wrong. I could do an entire post solely made of links to articles proving his utter wrongness. There's no need to wait to see if he's right. Even if there had been a huge earthquake right before noon, he'd still not be right, because his method doesn't work.
Which is really pathetic, when you consider that his method is pretty much akin to throwing out as many predictions as possible, as vaguely worded as possible, so as to catch as many earthquakes as possible.
But you know, apparently he never meant exactly the 20th, even though he specified that it would be shortly before noon. (He also said it would be in Christchurch, then in the south island, and another time that there would be a severe weather even somewhere in the world, and before Boxing Day reckoned there wouldn't be another big quake in Christchurch except actually there would and also a 6.3 totally counts as a 7+, right?)
This entry was originally posted at http://keieeeye.dreamwidth.org/169313.html. Feel free to comment there instead because LJ is a poo.