How I think it will play out

[eric_tse]

Contrary to many opinions that the sky is falling, I think the future will not be so bleak. The rising gas prices are actually strengthening my opinion, because they already force people to change their lifestyles despite the fact that gas is still pretty cheap here. So here it goes:

1. As the prices rise, the public transportation will start to

Comments

Re: Electric Cars

[evilref]

I think the point I was trying to make is that since the future cannot "look pretty much like the present but with more electricity".
I appreciate that the OP thinks that with some wisdom and good leadership, the transition could be something better than TEotWaWKI. I would agree, in some places, for some people: my biggest concern is not commuting or cars, but agriculture, population and food.
My comments on electric cars were more directed at the notion (suddenly very popular in the media, I notice) that electric cars can save our suburban way of life. They can't.
It is true that 25% could be saved with conservation -- and let's get on and do it -- but even then, there is a problem with the required current not being available in the suburbs. If your car has a 100litre tank, then replacing that with electric means a 20kWh battery. Charging that in 4 hours means 5kW, or a 45A receptacle; charging in 60 minutes in a freeway/motorway service station requires a 20kW receptacle (60A 3-phase over there, 30A 3-phase over here). Now perhaps you can imagine a diner with parking for 200 cars all drawing 20kW each while their owners have lunch. It can be done, but it also needs a 4MW substation and the appropriate overhead carriers to attach it to the grid.
There is more to the grid than the power stations. The producers and the consumers need to be linked. Get it wrong, and you have another New York Blackout.

Re: Electric Cars

[albionwood]

OK, we're back in agreement, then. No future scenario I can imagine preserves the current individual transport paradigm. We need a radical change in the way we think about mobility. Such change probably cannot be accomplished quickly without systemic shock (with widespread rage as a potentially catastrophic side effect), so I hope it can happen gradually as a result of steadily increasing prices.

If such a change can be effected, then retooling the electric grid doesn't seem impossible to me. Sure, it's a big job, but so was building it in the first place. America historically has accomplished this kind of rebuilding several times; only our self-absorption keeps us from doing it again.