BCS Bowl Preview: Fiesta
For weeks there was controversy about who the Fiesta Bowl would pick from many good teams. The list included Auburn, Miami, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oregon, and possibly Penn State. In the end, there wasn't much of a choice to be made. With LSU and Va Tech being upset in their conference championship games, Notre Dame and Ohio State gained automatic bids, eliminating Auburn, Miami, and Oregon from consideration. After selecting Notre Dame first and seeing the Orange Bowl snatch up Penn State, the Fiesta was left with Ohio State and West Virginia to choose from... which probably wasn't a hard choice.
And so we have Ohio State vs Notre Dame. Two storied programs, two teams with identical 9-2 records. The all-time series is tied 2-2, though Ohio State leads the "games that took place in most of our lifetimes" series 2-0.
The position comparisons
Quarterback: Each quarterback is both the star and the leader of his team's offense. Both are probably among the nation's top ten quarterbacks. Quinn is averaging 330 yards per game with an efficiency rating of 162.9, 3rd and 4th in the country respectively. While Smith's 194 yards per game does not crack the top 50 (though remember that he split time with Zwick for the first third of the season - which is more an issue of disrupting team rhythm than the yards given up which aren't many), his rating of 158.4 is still good enough to be #6 in the nation in that category. Smith also has a dimension that Quinn does not - he is a legitimate threat to run, and at times Ohio State has run the shotgun-option plays that mirror what the Texas Longhorns like to do with Vince Young. Both quarterbacks have experience as juniors.
Edge: Notre Dame
Runningbacks: Another similarity as Walker and Pittman have been the unsung weapons for their respective offenses, getting big yards and scores while more high-profile quarterbacks and wide receivers get the media spotlight. Each back averages a shade over 100 yards per game and both have rushed for six touchdowns on the season. Pittman is averaging 0.7 yards per carry more than Walker, though Walker makes up for that by being more of a threat as a short-field receiver. Both players are sophomores. Pittman has once again done this against better defenses, but he has done it was the help of a better line.
Edge: Draw
Wide Receivers: Another matchup that shouldn't disappoint. Ohio State's duo of Santonio Holmes and Ted Ginn Jr were expected to lead one of the nation's elite receiving corps in 2005. And while they have not met those expectations, they remain a formidable pair with the potential to turn any play into a gamebreaker. Third option Gonzalez has developed into a legitimate threat in the second half of the season. On Notre Dame's side, this was something few saw coming. Jeff Samardzija is the nation's fourth-leading receiver, and Stovall comes in at #23. These two have combined for 26 touchdowns. Not only that, but it is fun to just say Samardizja's name, as anyone who has watched The U is well aware.
Edge: Notre Dame
Tight Ends: Not as glorified of a matchup as the above three, but if Notre Dame is going to win this is one they will have to bring to the spotlight. Fasano has become a very reliable target for Quinn, and is the team's third-leading receiver. Hamby is probably most famous for dropping a potential touchdown in Ohio State's three point loss to Texas.
Edge: Notre Dame
Offensive Line: Despite being a pass-oriented team, Notre Dame's line has given up just 16 sacks on the season. Ohio State has given up 17 sacks... though you have to wonder how many of those are QB runs that were stopped behind the line. Still, I'm sure Smith's scrambling has also reduced that count, so we'll call pass-blocking a draw. Running the ball, Ohio State averages 4.4 yards per carry to Notre Dame's 3.7. You also have to consider that Ohio State's line have faced the likes of the Texas and Penn State defensive lines, widely considered to be among the nation's best.
Edge: Ohio State
Defensive Line: Though Notre Dame's defense has been widely criticized, you can't blame the defensive line and rush defense for that. The front four gave up 119.4 yards per game to come in 26th in the nation (albeit, with aggressive run-supporting safeties) which, considering the caliber of UND's offense that gives them a little room for error, isn't bad. We also must wonder where they would rank had they not faced Reggie Bush in mid-season. Then, you look at the Buckeyes. First in the nation against the run at under 75 yards per game. Nine rushing touchdowns given up, despite playing in the Big Ten and facing Texas in their second game. Kudla has given offenses nightmares with his relentless pursuit of the quarterback, any any one of these players would be getting more recognition were it not for the three linebackers behind them. The holes will be few and small.
Edge: Ohio State
Linebackers: Hoyt and Mays anchor a Notre Dame group that, though not spectacular, has risen to the occasion for the season. For the most part they have hit the gaps well and taken away the short field. Ohio State has three linebackers named Carpetner, Hawk, and Schlegel. Perhaps you've heard of them?
Edge: Ohio State
Secondary: This has been the weak spot for Notre Dame's defense, despite Zbikowski possibly being their best defensive player. The problem has been the corners. Wooden and Richardson have consistently given up big plays to the tune of 257.5 yards per game and one of the worst passing defenses in the country. Youboty, Salley and Whitner anchor an Ohio State group that has given up just 200.8 passing yards per game and has surrendered 8 touchdowns, compared to Notre Dame's 16.
Edge: Ohio State
Kicking: DJ Fitzpatrick has struggled recently, culminating in a number of missed field goals and even a missed PAT against Stanford... a single point that nearly cost the program some $14 million and a slot in the BCS. Ohio State always seems to have good kickers, and Josh Huston is no exception. He is one of just seven kickers to have 100+ points for the year. But Buckeyes beware: two of Huston's misses came in the Texas and Penn State games. With the way Tressel coaches, losing those 3 points can be the difference in the game.
Edge: Ohio State
Punting: DJ Fitzpatrick has been a sound punter, averaging a shade over 40 per kick. AJ Trepasso also averages a shade over 40. Brady Quinn leads the nation in punting average with one boot going 48 yards.
Edge: Draw
Returns: When they play well, there's no return tandem like Ginn and Holmes. In a few games this season, though, they've coughed up the ball numerous times. Notre Dame has gotten consistent play out of Zbikowski, Hord, and Grimes. Statistically, Ohio State should have the edge on kickoff returns while Notre Dame has the edge on punt returns. If I were a coach, I'd take Holmes and Ginn as my return men.
Edge: Ohio State
Return Coverage: Neither team is going to be hurt by their kick coverage. Ohio State tends to have one of the elite special teams units for the past several seasons, but Notre Dame impressed with their handling of Reggie Bush on the PR.
Edge: Draw
Coaching: Charlie Weis has won three Super Bowls. His offensive genius is legendary. Jim Tressel has won a National Championship and has owned the series against Michigan. For someone who "can't win the big game," 1-0 in the NC, 2-0 in BCS bowls, 3-1 in all bowls (the loss coming his first season), and 4-1 against the arch-rival isn't all that bad. Frankly, I don't know why some Buckeye fans are so down on him as a coach. He recruits well and the program has done very well under him.
Edge: Notre Dame
What happens when...
Notre Dame rushes: This is frankly not an area where the Irish can expect a lot of success... any yards over 70 should be thought of as a bonus. However, with a defense as skilled and fast as Ohio State's, it is crucial that Notre Dame consistently make the effort to run the ball in order to maintain balance. Quinn is going to have a tough enough time passing against this defense without the likes of AJ Hawk pinning back his ears and blitzing on third and long.
Edge: Ohio State
Notre Dame passes: Despite allowing few yards per game, teams have statistically passed decently against Ohio State (115.8 team defense pass efficiency, #33 in nation), which leads one to believe that a superb QB like Quinn can find the holes he needs, particularly with a pair of standout receivers. The question is whether or not he will have time to throw the deep ball, and whether or not his receivers can help him by gaining good YAC against a defense that excels at tackling. Charlie Weis will have a few tricks up his sleeve to get Samardizja a deep ball or two, and will try to use Fasano to test Ohio State's ability to defend the TE as a receiver. The OSU-Michigan game should provide footage of how to be successful passing the ball against this defense. (Just try not to pay too much attention to them holding Hart & Co to 32 yards on the ground.)
Edge: Notre Dame
Ohio State rushes: The last time Notre Dame faced a mobile quarterback like Troy Smith (Drew Stanton), they gave up a ton of yards both in the air and on the ground. Smith runs the ball more often than Stanton, which will really force Irish defenders to stay in their lanes and thus opens up the middle. And you know Coach Tressel loves to run the ball...
Edge: Ohio State
Ohio State passes: I could say the line about facing a mobile QB like Stanton again, but that would be unnecessary. Stanford threw for nearly 350 yards against this defense. Pass defense is Notre Dame's biggest weakness, and Ohio State has two big-time wide receivers who are itching to prove something after a lackluster regular season. So long as Troy Smith passes like it's the second half of the season and not the first, it could be a long night for the Irish secondary, particularly if Ginn gets some opportunities to try out his moves in the open field. Notre Dame's safeties do not have the speed to keep up with Ginn or Holmes, so if they tighten the gap by cheating up in run support, look for the deep ball. Then again, the Buckeyes would prefer to run the ball 60% of the time or more if it's working, safeties cheating up or not.
Edge: Ohio State
Overall
Notre Dame offense-Ohio State defense would be a great matchup on its own. With a month to prepare, I'd expect Charlie Weis to have one heck of a gameplan put together, and the Irish should put points on the scoreboard. The problem for Notre Dame is the other matchup. Ohio State's offense has kicked it into high gear, and the Irish haven't exactly been shutting teams down.
The Story
People who judge Notre Dame on their "almost beating" of USC tend to believe that, by some sort of transitive property, that makes the Irish match up well with just about anyone else in the NCAA. Notre Dame somewhat neutralized USC's mighty offense by keeping them off the field for nearly 40 minutes, taking advantage of a suspect Trojan defense to have long time-consuming drives that kept Leinart & Co not only off the field but also out of rhythm. While Notre Dame may score some points on Ohio State, their offense will not be able to completely dictate the pace of the game or do whatever it wants. Ohio State is also one of the least-penalized teams in the NCAA, which means they won't give up all the free yards that Notre Dame got that October afternoon in South Bend. When Notre Dame scores, expect Ohio State to answer with a score of their own. As the game progresses, Ohio State's superior lines will start to assert themselves, opening up the game for their linebacking corps and their nimble quarterback to deliver the knockout blows.
Prediction
Ohio State by 10.
And so we have Ohio State vs Notre Dame. Two storied programs, two teams with identical 9-2 records. The all-time series is tied 2-2, though Ohio State leads the "games that took place in most of our lifetimes" series 2-0.
The position comparisons
Quarterback: Each quarterback is both the star and the leader of his team's offense. Both are probably among the nation's top ten quarterbacks. Quinn is averaging 330 yards per game with an efficiency rating of 162.9, 3rd and 4th in the country respectively. While Smith's 194 yards per game does not crack the top 50 (though remember that he split time with Zwick for the first third of the season - which is more an issue of disrupting team rhythm than the yards given up which aren't many), his rating of 158.4 is still good enough to be #6 in the nation in that category. Smith also has a dimension that Quinn does not - he is a legitimate threat to run, and at times Ohio State has run the shotgun-option plays that mirror what the Texas Longhorns like to do with Vince Young. Both quarterbacks have experience as juniors.
Edge: Notre Dame
Runningbacks: Another similarity as Walker and Pittman have been the unsung weapons for their respective offenses, getting big yards and scores while more high-profile quarterbacks and wide receivers get the media spotlight. Each back averages a shade over 100 yards per game and both have rushed for six touchdowns on the season. Pittman is averaging 0.7 yards per carry more than Walker, though Walker makes up for that by being more of a threat as a short-field receiver. Both players are sophomores. Pittman has once again done this against better defenses, but he has done it was the help of a better line.
Edge: Draw
Wide Receivers: Another matchup that shouldn't disappoint. Ohio State's duo of Santonio Holmes and Ted Ginn Jr were expected to lead one of the nation's elite receiving corps in 2005. And while they have not met those expectations, they remain a formidable pair with the potential to turn any play into a gamebreaker. Third option Gonzalez has developed into a legitimate threat in the second half of the season. On Notre Dame's side, this was something few saw coming. Jeff Samardzija is the nation's fourth-leading receiver, and Stovall comes in at #23. These two have combined for 26 touchdowns. Not only that, but it is fun to just say Samardizja's name, as anyone who has watched The U is well aware.
Edge: Notre Dame
Tight Ends: Not as glorified of a matchup as the above three, but if Notre Dame is going to win this is one they will have to bring to the spotlight. Fasano has become a very reliable target for Quinn, and is the team's third-leading receiver. Hamby is probably most famous for dropping a potential touchdown in Ohio State's three point loss to Texas.
Edge: Notre Dame
Offensive Line: Despite being a pass-oriented team, Notre Dame's line has given up just 16 sacks on the season. Ohio State has given up 17 sacks... though you have to wonder how many of those are QB runs that were stopped behind the line. Still, I'm sure Smith's scrambling has also reduced that count, so we'll call pass-blocking a draw. Running the ball, Ohio State averages 4.4 yards per carry to Notre Dame's 3.7. You also have to consider that Ohio State's line have faced the likes of the Texas and Penn State defensive lines, widely considered to be among the nation's best.
Edge: Ohio State
Defensive Line: Though Notre Dame's defense has been widely criticized, you can't blame the defensive line and rush defense for that. The front four gave up 119.4 yards per game to come in 26th in the nation (albeit, with aggressive run-supporting safeties) which, considering the caliber of UND's offense that gives them a little room for error, isn't bad. We also must wonder where they would rank had they not faced Reggie Bush in mid-season. Then, you look at the Buckeyes. First in the nation against the run at under 75 yards per game. Nine rushing touchdowns given up, despite playing in the Big Ten and facing Texas in their second game. Kudla has given offenses nightmares with his relentless pursuit of the quarterback, any any one of these players would be getting more recognition were it not for the three linebackers behind them. The holes will be few and small.
Edge: Ohio State
Linebackers: Hoyt and Mays anchor a Notre Dame group that, though not spectacular, has risen to the occasion for the season. For the most part they have hit the gaps well and taken away the short field. Ohio State has three linebackers named Carpetner, Hawk, and Schlegel. Perhaps you've heard of them?
Edge: Ohio State
Secondary: This has been the weak spot for Notre Dame's defense, despite Zbikowski possibly being their best defensive player. The problem has been the corners. Wooden and Richardson have consistently given up big plays to the tune of 257.5 yards per game and one of the worst passing defenses in the country. Youboty, Salley and Whitner anchor an Ohio State group that has given up just 200.8 passing yards per game and has surrendered 8 touchdowns, compared to Notre Dame's 16.
Edge: Ohio State
Kicking: DJ Fitzpatrick has struggled recently, culminating in a number of missed field goals and even a missed PAT against Stanford... a single point that nearly cost the program some $14 million and a slot in the BCS. Ohio State always seems to have good kickers, and Josh Huston is no exception. He is one of just seven kickers to have 100+ points for the year. But Buckeyes beware: two of Huston's misses came in the Texas and Penn State games. With the way Tressel coaches, losing those 3 points can be the difference in the game.
Edge: Ohio State
Punting: DJ Fitzpatrick has been a sound punter, averaging a shade over 40 per kick. AJ Trepasso also averages a shade over 40. Brady Quinn leads the nation in punting average with one boot going 48 yards.
Edge: Draw
Returns: When they play well, there's no return tandem like Ginn and Holmes. In a few games this season, though, they've coughed up the ball numerous times. Notre Dame has gotten consistent play out of Zbikowski, Hord, and Grimes. Statistically, Ohio State should have the edge on kickoff returns while Notre Dame has the edge on punt returns. If I were a coach, I'd take Holmes and Ginn as my return men.
Edge: Ohio State
Return Coverage: Neither team is going to be hurt by their kick coverage. Ohio State tends to have one of the elite special teams units for the past several seasons, but Notre Dame impressed with their handling of Reggie Bush on the PR.
Edge: Draw
Coaching: Charlie Weis has won three Super Bowls. His offensive genius is legendary. Jim Tressel has won a National Championship and has owned the series against Michigan. For someone who "can't win the big game," 1-0 in the NC, 2-0 in BCS bowls, 3-1 in all bowls (the loss coming his first season), and 4-1 against the arch-rival isn't all that bad. Frankly, I don't know why some Buckeye fans are so down on him as a coach. He recruits well and the program has done very well under him.
Edge: Notre Dame
What happens when...
Notre Dame rushes: This is frankly not an area where the Irish can expect a lot of success... any yards over 70 should be thought of as a bonus. However, with a defense as skilled and fast as Ohio State's, it is crucial that Notre Dame consistently make the effort to run the ball in order to maintain balance. Quinn is going to have a tough enough time passing against this defense without the likes of AJ Hawk pinning back his ears and blitzing on third and long.
Edge: Ohio State
Notre Dame passes: Despite allowing few yards per game, teams have statistically passed decently against Ohio State (115.8 team defense pass efficiency, #33 in nation), which leads one to believe that a superb QB like Quinn can find the holes he needs, particularly with a pair of standout receivers. The question is whether or not he will have time to throw the deep ball, and whether or not his receivers can help him by gaining good YAC against a defense that excels at tackling. Charlie Weis will have a few tricks up his sleeve to get Samardizja a deep ball or two, and will try to use Fasano to test Ohio State's ability to defend the TE as a receiver. The OSU-Michigan game should provide footage of how to be successful passing the ball against this defense. (Just try not to pay too much attention to them holding Hart & Co to 32 yards on the ground.)
Edge: Notre Dame
Ohio State rushes: The last time Notre Dame faced a mobile quarterback like Troy Smith (Drew Stanton), they gave up a ton of yards both in the air and on the ground. Smith runs the ball more often than Stanton, which will really force Irish defenders to stay in their lanes and thus opens up the middle. And you know Coach Tressel loves to run the ball...
Edge: Ohio State
Ohio State passes: I could say the line about facing a mobile QB like Stanton again, but that would be unnecessary. Stanford threw for nearly 350 yards against this defense. Pass defense is Notre Dame's biggest weakness, and Ohio State has two big-time wide receivers who are itching to prove something after a lackluster regular season. So long as Troy Smith passes like it's the second half of the season and not the first, it could be a long night for the Irish secondary, particularly if Ginn gets some opportunities to try out his moves in the open field. Notre Dame's safeties do not have the speed to keep up with Ginn or Holmes, so if they tighten the gap by cheating up in run support, look for the deep ball. Then again, the Buckeyes would prefer to run the ball 60% of the time or more if it's working, safeties cheating up or not.
Edge: Ohio State
Overall
Notre Dame offense-Ohio State defense would be a great matchup on its own. With a month to prepare, I'd expect Charlie Weis to have one heck of a gameplan put together, and the Irish should put points on the scoreboard. The problem for Notre Dame is the other matchup. Ohio State's offense has kicked it into high gear, and the Irish haven't exactly been shutting teams down.
The Story
People who judge Notre Dame on their "almost beating" of USC tend to believe that, by some sort of transitive property, that makes the Irish match up well with just about anyone else in the NCAA. Notre Dame somewhat neutralized USC's mighty offense by keeping them off the field for nearly 40 minutes, taking advantage of a suspect Trojan defense to have long time-consuming drives that kept Leinart & Co not only off the field but also out of rhythm. While Notre Dame may score some points on Ohio State, their offense will not be able to completely dictate the pace of the game or do whatever it wants. Ohio State is also one of the least-penalized teams in the NCAA, which means they won't give up all the free yards that Notre Dame got that October afternoon in South Bend. When Notre Dame scores, expect Ohio State to answer with a score of their own. As the game progresses, Ohio State's superior lines will start to assert themselves, opening up the game for their linebacking corps and their nimble quarterback to deliver the knockout blows.
Prediction
Ohio State by 10.