Governments in the Balkans Need Political Courage for Reforms
16/12/2002
Nicholas Whyte is the International Crisis Group's Balkans Programme director and is responsible for co-ordinating field research, analysis, policy prescription and advocacy activities in the region. In this interview, he refers to current concerns and the future of Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo and Serbia.
By Valentin Nesovski for Southeast European Times in Skopje - 16/12/02
Southeast European Times: The situation in the Balkans seems to be improving. Do you think there will be a period of stabilisation in the region?
Nicholas Whyte: Hopefully. Who can tell the future? The single most important development in the last three years has been the removal of [former Yugoslav President Slobodan] Milosevic from power, and that has meant Serbia is no longer as big a factor for instability in the region. And it is interesting that, of course, Macedonia had its own conflict last year and that was the only conflict in the last ten years in which Serbia was not involved, and it was the only conflict in the last ten years that was contained and resolved within a few months.
Southeast European Times: In your opinion, what are the key issues that have to be resolved in order to achieve further economic stabilisation and better mutual understanding among the people of the Balkans?
Whyte: Economic development is of crucial importance. I think the problem is not so much what to do but when to do it, to develop the political will to do it, and it is really a question of governments having the political courage to move ahead with reforms or not. One of the reasons the Balkan countries, except Slovenia, have not progressed is because the governments have not really reformed economically. But the other issue that I think is of crucial importance to the region's stability is the final status of Kosovo. While the question remains open, you will find extremists all over the region continuing to indulge in wishful thinking about what they can do to redraw maps to their liking. I think that's something that needs to be moved on quickly. I'm encouraged by what I see from the comments of Kofi Annan, Michael Steiner and Nebojsa Covic. It's very good that they are now talking about dialogue between Pristina and Belgrade, and I think they are going to resolve this issue.
Southeast European Times: What do you see as the future of Kosovo?
Whyte: Probably it will become independent, or something that is pretty much the same as independence even if it is not called that. I think the interests of Belgrade dictate this, actually. As Serbia comes closer to the EU it will find less and less enthusiasm about hanging on to a claim over Kosovo. That's where I see the likely movements in this. The international community will have to assist in the transformation, but that's what I see as the likely outcome. But the outcome in essence is not important - it's the path to that outcome that's important. And it is very important that the final status is made through dialogue and through peaceful, legal and democratic means, because we've too often changed the borders in the Balkans through war.
Southeast European Times: There are some signs from NATO that Macedonia, Croatia and Albania are the most likely candidates for the next cycle of NATO enlargement. Do you think that full membership for those countries may be a sign of momentum towards a final settlement and peace in this part of Europe?
Whyte: Well, nothing is ever final in the world of politics, but it will certainly be a very important marker. I think there is little dispute - there is no question those three countries are expected, I would say, to join NATO in 2006. And there are a couple of others not mentioned in that bracket that we'll also have to think about - one is Serbia, or Yugoslavia, which, if it hadn't been for the illegal arms issue, would have joined Partnership for Peace. If they sort out the issue of arms exports [to Iraq], they could possibly join Partnership for Peace next year, and they would be one of the candidates for NATO in 2006 or 2007 as well.
Southeast European Times: How long will Bosnia and Herzegovina remain a protectorate?
Whyte: It will take until Bosnia's political leaders realize that it is better to run a more open political system where, rather than controlling the economy themselves through the traditional means of Yugoslav control, they try to develop more modern European states. I am not one who believes that revising the Dayton agreement will help. I've never felt that revising Dayton will lead to a massive progress straight away. My simple point is that if you have a new Dayton agreement, you will see the same politicians. There has been speculation about how you could engineer the voting system to bring in different or better politicians. The political leadership that is there is there because it has the support of the people. The future of Bosnia is to be supported by its neighbours, and Bosnia will really make progress when both Croatia and Serbia are making progress.
Southeast European Times: The International Crisis Group has had a proposal for resolving the name issue between Macedonia and Greece. Do you think this issue can be resolved in the near future?
Whyte: It is a question of political will. We put forward one proposal. I don't know whether the final solution is that proposal or a different one, but I do think it's very important as a signal from the international community that Macedonia be taken seriously as a state. Partly in terms of Macedonia's internal stability, but more importantly in terms of natural justice, I think that solutions must be found.
Southeast European Times: There is an ongoing debate in Brussels about establishing EU rapid reaction forces. According to some statements from EU representatives, their first mission will be in Macedonia in the spring. Do you think EU forces can replace NATO peace missions in the whole Balkan region?
Whyte: Ultimately, yes. I think that's what we expect to see in ten years or so. The question is whether there will still be peacekeeping forces in Macedonia in six months. I think it's quite possible there will not be. Quite possibly, the situation there will be sufficiently stable that no peacekeeping forces will be necessary at all.
Nicholas Whyte is the International Crisis Group's Balkans Programme director and is responsible for co-ordinating field research, analysis, policy prescription and advocacy activities in the region. In this interview, he refers to current concerns and the future of Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo and Serbia.
By Valentin Nesovski for Southeast European Times in Skopje - 16/12/02
Southeast European Times: The situation in the Balkans seems to be improving. Do you think there will be a period of stabilisation in the region?
Nicholas Whyte: Hopefully. Who can tell the future? The single most important development in the last three years has been the removal of [former Yugoslav President Slobodan] Milosevic from power, and that has meant Serbia is no longer as big a factor for instability in the region. And it is interesting that, of course, Macedonia had its own conflict last year and that was the only conflict in the last ten years in which Serbia was not involved, and it was the only conflict in the last ten years that was contained and resolved within a few months.
Southeast European Times: In your opinion, what are the key issues that have to be resolved in order to achieve further economic stabilisation and better mutual understanding among the people of the Balkans?
Whyte: Economic development is of crucial importance. I think the problem is not so much what to do but when to do it, to develop the political will to do it, and it is really a question of governments having the political courage to move ahead with reforms or not. One of the reasons the Balkan countries, except Slovenia, have not progressed is because the governments have not really reformed economically. But the other issue that I think is of crucial importance to the region's stability is the final status of Kosovo. While the question remains open, you will find extremists all over the region continuing to indulge in wishful thinking about what they can do to redraw maps to their liking. I think that's something that needs to be moved on quickly. I'm encouraged by what I see from the comments of Kofi Annan, Michael Steiner and Nebojsa Covic. It's very good that they are now talking about dialogue between Pristina and Belgrade, and I think they are going to resolve this issue.
Southeast European Times: What do you see as the future of Kosovo?
Whyte: Probably it will become independent, or something that is pretty much the same as independence even if it is not called that. I think the interests of Belgrade dictate this, actually. As Serbia comes closer to the EU it will find less and less enthusiasm about hanging on to a claim over Kosovo. That's where I see the likely movements in this. The international community will have to assist in the transformation, but that's what I see as the likely outcome. But the outcome in essence is not important - it's the path to that outcome that's important. And it is very important that the final status is made through dialogue and through peaceful, legal and democratic means, because we've too often changed the borders in the Balkans through war.
Southeast European Times: There are some signs from NATO that Macedonia, Croatia and Albania are the most likely candidates for the next cycle of NATO enlargement. Do you think that full membership for those countries may be a sign of momentum towards a final settlement and peace in this part of Europe?
Whyte: Well, nothing is ever final in the world of politics, but it will certainly be a very important marker. I think there is little dispute - there is no question those three countries are expected, I would say, to join NATO in 2006. And there are a couple of others not mentioned in that bracket that we'll also have to think about - one is Serbia, or Yugoslavia, which, if it hadn't been for the illegal arms issue, would have joined Partnership for Peace. If they sort out the issue of arms exports [to Iraq], they could possibly join Partnership for Peace next year, and they would be one of the candidates for NATO in 2006 or 2007 as well.
Southeast European Times: How long will Bosnia and Herzegovina remain a protectorate?
Whyte: It will take until Bosnia's political leaders realize that it is better to run a more open political system where, rather than controlling the economy themselves through the traditional means of Yugoslav control, they try to develop more modern European states. I am not one who believes that revising the Dayton agreement will help. I've never felt that revising Dayton will lead to a massive progress straight away. My simple point is that if you have a new Dayton agreement, you will see the same politicians. There has been speculation about how you could engineer the voting system to bring in different or better politicians. The political leadership that is there is there because it has the support of the people. The future of Bosnia is to be supported by its neighbours, and Bosnia will really make progress when both Croatia and Serbia are making progress.
Southeast European Times: The International Crisis Group has had a proposal for resolving the name issue between Macedonia and Greece. Do you think this issue can be resolved in the near future?
Whyte: It is a question of political will. We put forward one proposal. I don't know whether the final solution is that proposal or a different one, but I do think it's very important as a signal from the international community that Macedonia be taken seriously as a state. Partly in terms of Macedonia's internal stability, but more importantly in terms of natural justice, I think that solutions must be found.
Southeast European Times: There is an ongoing debate in Brussels about establishing EU rapid reaction forces. According to some statements from EU representatives, their first mission will be in Macedonia in the spring. Do you think EU forces can replace NATO peace missions in the whole Balkan region?
Whyte: Ultimately, yes. I think that's what we expect to see in ten years or so. The question is whether there will still be peacekeeping forces in Macedonia in six months. I think it's quite possible there will not be. Quite possibly, the situation there will be sufficiently stable that no peacekeeping forces will be necessary at all.