Water is Wet

Apr 26, 2006 11:37

Water is Wet ( Read more... )

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mycroftca April 26 2006, 18:39:15 UTC
US policy for generations is to fight to keep open such lines of trade via the seaways. If Iran does that, they will give Bush the causus bellorum that he's looking for to excuse attacking/invading Iran.

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roadskoller April 26 2006, 21:28:28 UTC
You're right you know.

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nilajean April 26 2006, 21:38:44 UTC
No, Bush is already hard at work manufacturing his causus bellorum by hyperinflating their nuclear program. This is what they'll do *after* Bush orders the attack.

It's a sad day for America when Khameini is the rational one.

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mycroftca April 26 2006, 22:44:42 UTC
If the US attacks, the first thing that they'll do is destroy the Iranian capability of closing the strait. So, this is simply pompous bluster.

The biggest problem is that the Iranians are refusing UN inspectors to view their program. If they aren't pursuing nuclear weapons, then allowing the inspectors takes all the wind out of Bush's sails. In addition, their own rhetoric espouses unprovoked nuclear attacks on Israel, a US ally. If they'd just shut up about this, they'd also stop inflaming the situation.

They are bringing it on themselves, especially in view of what just happened on their borders.

Question: Is it possible that they want to provoke a war with the US? Have you considered that?

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nilajean April 27 2006, 14:58:47 UTC
Unfortunately, that "If the US attacks" isn't nearly as big as I'd like it to be. This is entirely too much like the build-up to the war in Iraq, and too many people too high up are telling us (now that it's too late, of course) that the intelligence was fixed around the policy of getting Saddam out of power ( ... )

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mycroftca April 27 2006, 17:45:26 UTC
To "throw a nuke at Israel", they first have to already have a nuke, which is possible, especially if they've bribed a Russian for one, and then they have to have some means of delivery. The Iraqi Scud attacks on Israel were fired at the extreme limits of their capabilities; Iran is even farther from Israel. I'm not sure that they would be capable of "throw"ing...

Perhaps they could ship one in by sea?

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mycroftca April 27 2006, 17:57:27 UTC
D'OH!

You're right. And thank the Goddess for it.

But, you know, other than saving Israel for a time, the scenario remains the same. I don't think we're going to have any easier a time with Iran than Iraq. They have a bigger army, a more disciplined army and for the most part the people are actually behind their leaders. We may pull off another regime change, but will we actually win the war?

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