Preseason NFL Predictions, Picks for Week 1
It's time to revive an old tradition - Year Three of my NFL picks against the spread. I believe you all know the rules. First, my predictions for the season:
AFC East
1. NE (seed: 2)
2. Miami (WC1)
3. Buffalo
4. NY Jets
AFC North
1. Pittsburgh (seed: 3)
2. Cincinnati
3. Cleveland
4. Baltimore
AFC South
1. Indianapolis (seed: 1)
2. Jacksonville
3. Houston
4. Tennessee
AFC West
1. Kansas City (seed: 4)
2. San Diego (WC2)
3. Denver
4. Oakland
NFC East
1. Dallas (seed: 4)
2. Philadelphia (WC2)
3. NY Giants
4. Washington
NFC North
1. Chicago (seed: 3)
2. Minnesota
3. Detroit
4. Green Bay
NFC South
1. Carolina (seed: 1)
2. Tampa Bay
3. New Orleans
4. Atlanta
NFC West
1. Seattle (seed: 2)
2. St. Louis (WC1)
3. Arizona
4. San Francisco
Playoffs
PITTSBURGH over San Diego, KANSAS CITY over Miami; Philadelphia over CHICAGO, DALLAS over St. Louis
Kansas City over INDIANAPOLIS, Pittsburgh over NEW ENGLAND; CAROLINA over Philadelphia, SEATTLE over Dallas
Kansas City over PITTSBURGH; CAROLINA over Seattle
Super Bowl XLI: Panthers 34, Chiefs 28
Call me biased, I don't care. On to the picks:
NFL Picks - Week 1
Miami (+1) over PITTSBURGH
Kind of a slam dunk actually. Charlie Batch is a decent backup, but not good enough to beat another playoff-caliber team at full strength.
TAMPA BAY (-3) over Baltimore
In case you didn't get it from the predictions, I think the Steve McNair Experiment is going to be one of the biggest train wrecks in the history of football. I just don't believe the guy has much left in the tank. Tampa usually starts strong, especially if they're against a weak opponent.
New Orleans (+3) over CLEVELAND
The Saints will be the most improved team in the league this season. Write it down. In ink. I like the Browns this season, but Charlie Frye will need some more time before he blossoms.
CAROLINA (-6) over Atlanta
The Panthers drafted Thomas Davis exclusively to be a Vick-stopper, and he fulfilled that role to perfection in his rookie year as the Panthers finally broke the Vick curse. Expect it to continue as the Falcons still can't be expected to throw effectively.
Seattle (-6) over DETROIT
Everyone's talking about the "new Lions", but all I see are the same old underachievers with a better QB. It'll get them maybe 6 or 7 wins especially in the running joke that is the NFC North, but it's not going to get them further than that. Shaun Alexander has some time before being bitten by the Madden Curse.
Philadelphia (-4.5) over HOUSTON
Rant: How is it that I target Reggie Brown as my sleeper (he's Philly's best wideout but no one is talking about him), and I end up with him in almost no leagues? He is going to have a breakout season this year. Damn you and your auto-rankings, Yahoo Sports.
TENNESSEE (-3) over NY Jets
It's going to be very painful to watch the Jets this season. I mean, like, real bad. The Kellen Clemens Era begins around Week 3.
KANSAS CITY (-2.5) over Cincinnati
Probably the best matchup of opening weekend as Larry Johnson tangles with Chad Johnson. Expect a lot of points in this game.
ST. LOUIS (+3.5) over Denver
I think the Rams can surprise some people this year. Steven Jackson still has untapped potential and Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce (can you believe this guy is still in the league?) are still reliable targets. The Broncos are in for a world of trouble once the fans start clamoring for Jay Cutler, which starts about a month ago.
NEW ENGLAND (-9) over Buffalo
I'm pretty sure Bill Belichick could make 11 Deion Sanders into a cohesive defensive unit at this point.
JACKSONVILLE (-2.5) over Dallas
I'm still waiting for Byron Leftwich to just start taking over. The next generation of great MAC quarterbacks needs to begin and end with Roethlisberger, and then him. The TO Era will get off to a sloppy start.
GREEN BAY (+3.5) over Chicago
My Upset Pick of the Week. The Bears took a while to get rolling last year and I think the same will hold true this season. Green Bay is about to decompose with all the grizzled vets they have lying around, but they'll pull this one out.
ARIZONA (-7.5) over San Francisco
As the Niners draw closer and closer to Brady Quinn, they're going to start asking themselves, "Is this Alex Smith Experiment worth investing more time in, or do we pull the plug and go with a Weis-coached star? Hmmmm..."
Indianapolis (-3.5) over NY GIANTS
I suppose the networks should be billing this as a "Manning Brothers" showdown rather than a battle of QBs with a combined three playoff wins in nine seasons. That probably sounds a bit better. Colts will romp in this one.
WASHINGTON (-4.5) over Minnesota
So lemme get this straight: the Skins devote all this time and money to plucking great offensive playmakers (Portis, Randle El, Lloyd, Moss, to a lesser extent TJ Duckett) and they still start Mark Fucking Brunell at QB? Well, it'll work this week. But not much longer.
San Diego (-3) over OAKLAND
Another team that has a good shot at obtaining Brady Quinn: The Oakland Raiders. Phil Rivers is my other sleeper fantasy pick - look for him to grasp the offense pretty well and pretty quickly.
AFC East
1. NE (seed: 2)
2. Miami (WC1)
3. Buffalo
4. NY Jets
AFC North
1. Pittsburgh (seed: 3)
2. Cincinnati
3. Cleveland
4. Baltimore
AFC South
1. Indianapolis (seed: 1)
2. Jacksonville
3. Houston
4. Tennessee
AFC West
1. Kansas City (seed: 4)
2. San Diego (WC2)
3. Denver
4. Oakland
NFC East
1. Dallas (seed: 4)
2. Philadelphia (WC2)
3. NY Giants
4. Washington
NFC North
1. Chicago (seed: 3)
2. Minnesota
3. Detroit
4. Green Bay
NFC South
1. Carolina (seed: 1)
2. Tampa Bay
3. New Orleans
4. Atlanta
NFC West
1. Seattle (seed: 2)
2. St. Louis (WC1)
3. Arizona
4. San Francisco
Playoffs
PITTSBURGH over San Diego, KANSAS CITY over Miami; Philadelphia over CHICAGO, DALLAS over St. Louis
Kansas City over INDIANAPOLIS, Pittsburgh over NEW ENGLAND; CAROLINA over Philadelphia, SEATTLE over Dallas
Kansas City over PITTSBURGH; CAROLINA over Seattle
Super Bowl XLI: Panthers 34, Chiefs 28
Call me biased, I don't care. On to the picks:
NFL Picks - Week 1
Miami (+1) over PITTSBURGH
Kind of a slam dunk actually. Charlie Batch is a decent backup, but not good enough to beat another playoff-caliber team at full strength.
TAMPA BAY (-3) over Baltimore
In case you didn't get it from the predictions, I think the Steve McNair Experiment is going to be one of the biggest train wrecks in the history of football. I just don't believe the guy has much left in the tank. Tampa usually starts strong, especially if they're against a weak opponent.
New Orleans (+3) over CLEVELAND
The Saints will be the most improved team in the league this season. Write it down. In ink. I like the Browns this season, but Charlie Frye will need some more time before he blossoms.
CAROLINA (-6) over Atlanta
The Panthers drafted Thomas Davis exclusively to be a Vick-stopper, and he fulfilled that role to perfection in his rookie year as the Panthers finally broke the Vick curse. Expect it to continue as the Falcons still can't be expected to throw effectively.
Seattle (-6) over DETROIT
Everyone's talking about the "new Lions", but all I see are the same old underachievers with a better QB. It'll get them maybe 6 or 7 wins especially in the running joke that is the NFC North, but it's not going to get them further than that. Shaun Alexander has some time before being bitten by the Madden Curse.
Philadelphia (-4.5) over HOUSTON
Rant: How is it that I target Reggie Brown as my sleeper (he's Philly's best wideout but no one is talking about him), and I end up with him in almost no leagues? He is going to have a breakout season this year. Damn you and your auto-rankings, Yahoo Sports.
TENNESSEE (-3) over NY Jets
It's going to be very painful to watch the Jets this season. I mean, like, real bad. The Kellen Clemens Era begins around Week 3.
KANSAS CITY (-2.5) over Cincinnati
Probably the best matchup of opening weekend as Larry Johnson tangles with Chad Johnson. Expect a lot of points in this game.
ST. LOUIS (+3.5) over Denver
I think the Rams can surprise some people this year. Steven Jackson still has untapped potential and Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce (can you believe this guy is still in the league?) are still reliable targets. The Broncos are in for a world of trouble once the fans start clamoring for Jay Cutler, which starts about a month ago.
NEW ENGLAND (-9) over Buffalo
I'm pretty sure Bill Belichick could make 11 Deion Sanders into a cohesive defensive unit at this point.
JACKSONVILLE (-2.5) over Dallas
I'm still waiting for Byron Leftwich to just start taking over. The next generation of great MAC quarterbacks needs to begin and end with Roethlisberger, and then him. The TO Era will get off to a sloppy start.
GREEN BAY (+3.5) over Chicago
My Upset Pick of the Week. The Bears took a while to get rolling last year and I think the same will hold true this season. Green Bay is about to decompose with all the grizzled vets they have lying around, but they'll pull this one out.
ARIZONA (-7.5) over San Francisco
As the Niners draw closer and closer to Brady Quinn, they're going to start asking themselves, "Is this Alex Smith Experiment worth investing more time in, or do we pull the plug and go with a Weis-coached star? Hmmmm..."
Indianapolis (-3.5) over NY GIANTS
I suppose the networks should be billing this as a "Manning Brothers" showdown rather than a battle of QBs with a combined three playoff wins in nine seasons. That probably sounds a bit better. Colts will romp in this one.
WASHINGTON (-4.5) over Minnesota
So lemme get this straight: the Skins devote all this time and money to plucking great offensive playmakers (Portis, Randle El, Lloyd, Moss, to a lesser extent TJ Duckett) and they still start Mark Fucking Brunell at QB? Well, it'll work this week. But not much longer.
San Diego (-3) over OAKLAND
Another team that has a good shot at obtaining Brady Quinn: The Oakland Raiders. Phil Rivers is my other sleeper fantasy pick - look for him to grasp the offense pretty well and pretty quickly.