Bumbling Biffo and the By-Election Bruhaha
So, our glorious leader has stated that the three lingering by-elections (Donegal South West, Dublin South & Waterford) won't happen until next year, but it should be in the spring. This is him presumably trying to get his act in order before the courts force him to. He's muttered all sorts of things about their being more important things the government needs to deal with, such as the run in to the budget and the like, ignoring, again, that the Donegal South West seat has been vacant since summer of 2009. I'm not sure if he truly believes that the people are stupid enough to fall for this, or if he's stupid enough to believe it himself.
The simple fact is, as with all parliamentary politics, that the numbers are against him. Biffo currently has a very slim majority indeed and having three seats unoccupied suits him. He knows that FF won't win the seats and that would leave him on a knife edge. He is, at the same time, trying to get the independent FFers (and any other independents he can) as close to the inside of the tent as possible. That will, of course, cost him, but as he's been paying any price for power for some time now, I don't think that will matter. Central to all of this, as always, are the Greens, but again, they don't appear to have hit bottom yet. Three seats suddenly being occupied by the opposition might be enough of a moment.
So what does all this mean? If Biffo can't get the independents into some sort of lock then we're probably looking at an election a year early (three seats go in the spring, gov lose a vote, it all falls down). Even if the independents can be locked in, of course, it's still a dodgy way to run a country, similar to the kind of coalition they would have had in the UK if Labour and the LibDems had made a deal. Won't that be fun.
Of course, as always, the Greens might suddenly wake up and find out the nightmare is real, or they might grow a pair, but I gave up hope on that one some time ago.
The simple fact is, as with all parliamentary politics, that the numbers are against him. Biffo currently has a very slim majority indeed and having three seats unoccupied suits him. He knows that FF won't win the seats and that would leave him on a knife edge. He is, at the same time, trying to get the independent FFers (and any other independents he can) as close to the inside of the tent as possible. That will, of course, cost him, but as he's been paying any price for power for some time now, I don't think that will matter. Central to all of this, as always, are the Greens, but again, they don't appear to have hit bottom yet. Three seats suddenly being occupied by the opposition might be enough of a moment.
So what does all this mean? If Biffo can't get the independents into some sort of lock then we're probably looking at an election a year early (three seats go in the spring, gov lose a vote, it all falls down). Even if the independents can be locked in, of course, it's still a dodgy way to run a country, similar to the kind of coalition they would have had in the UK if Labour and the LibDems had made a deal. Won't that be fun.
Of course, as always, the Greens might suddenly wake up and find out the nightmare is real, or they might grow a pair, but I gave up hope on that one some time ago.