... The trouble with declaring Roy-san a wolf is that unless he is entirely inept, he has very little reason to make up a clue at this point and draw suspicion towards himself in precisely the manner he has -- Unless it's to clear himself and Lady-san with his "AK,L OKAY, S.S WOLF" interpretation, which is always a possibility. (Himself via receiving the clue, Lady-san (and of course Ash-san, hello there!) vie not being Sano-san.)
You mention that Lady-san is your other most suspicious figure; she is mine as well. I suggest that rather than casting immediate suspicion towards Roy-san, we hold the suspicion in our hearts and cast our votes towards Lady-san. You see:
1) If all of the reasons you have assumed we are sheep are true, then we are left with Roy-san, Tobias-san, and Lady-san as possible wolves. Two of the three are wolves, and it is hard to judge which, but we have a 66.6666(etc)% chance of getting one through sheer random guesswork. If Lady-san is suspicious to you, why not Lady-san?
2) For various reasons, I find it hard to believe that Kenobi-san and Roy-san might both be wolves (I can expand if people want, but it's a little out of place in a point-form list). I do suspect one of them is a wolf, though of course I may be incorrect. I think Roy-san is the more likely wolf. However, if we put them aside as a pair under that theory, then one of Tobias-san and Lady-san is a wolf. Random chance is a bit more uncomfortable here, but again, when picking between two, you pick the one you already suspect.
3) Lady-san has been around but refusing to talk. Ah, of course, so has Tobias-san, but Tobias-san seems to be around at different hours, when there was little discussion going on, while Lady-san dropped a comment here and there when there was discussion going on, but did not contribute. She may, of course, just be observing, but it shows a caution that caught my eye.
4) Given that Roy-san's interpretation of the clue clears Lady-san (and Ash-san) as sheep, if we put Lady-san up and find her to be a wolf, his interpretation (or the clue itself) is obviously false. (Not necessarily both clue and interpretation are false, though that is a possibility. The clue might be genuine and he may be misinterpreting it, or it might be false and milked for safety.) Of course, this is a very risky proposition.
It is for these reasons that for now I am casting a temporary suspicion vote on Lady-san. I may move it if other things turn up later, of course.
Ah, also, I may be a little late to the voting this evening, but I should not miss it. I've got a prior committment from around 7 pm - 1 am EST (counting in projected travel time!).
As for what he might mean to gain... clearing Lady, at the least. Even if he is voted out, the Shepherd may not announce whether he was sheep or wolf, and if Lady were a wolf and cleared, likely a sheep would be next voted out. I believe Mustang knew that Ying suspected him, which may be one reason she was killed, as well as revenge for Sano-san, as she was the first to level suspicion against him. The wolves may also be becoming nervous; as time passes, pressure grows, and wolves win as a team, so he may feel that risking drawing attention to himself is worth it. Lady has been acting terribly suspiciously; Mustang may be hoping to cover that over, as he has been under suspicion before, and Lady is, to be frank, fairly obvious.
As for voting, so long as I feel I am voting for a wolf, it does not matter to me which one we remove first; if those I believe to be sheep agree on Lady, then I am agreed as well.
... The trouble with declaring Roy-san a wolf is that unless he is entirely inept, he has very little reason to make up a clue at this point and draw suspicion towards himself in precisely the manner he has -- Unless it's to clear himself and Lady-san with his "AK,L OKAY, S.S WOLF" interpretation, which is always a possibility. (Himself via receiving the clue, Lady-san (and of course Ash-san, hello there!) vie not being Sano-san.)
You mention that Lady-san is your other most suspicious figure; she is mine as well. I suggest that rather than casting immediate suspicion towards Roy-san, we hold the suspicion in our hearts and cast our votes towards Lady-san. You see:
1) If all of the reasons you have assumed we are sheep are true, then we are left with Roy-san, Tobias-san, and Lady-san as possible wolves. Two of the three are wolves, and it is hard to judge which, but we have a 66.6666(etc)% chance of getting one through sheer random guesswork. If Lady-san is suspicious to you, why not Lady-san?
2) For various reasons, I find it hard to believe that Kenobi-san and Roy-san might both be wolves (I can expand if people want, but it's a little out of place in a point-form list). I do suspect one of them is a wolf, though of course I may be incorrect. I think Roy-san is the more likely wolf. However, if we put them aside as a pair under that theory, then one of Tobias-san and Lady-san is a wolf. Random chance is a bit more uncomfortable here, but again, when picking between two, you pick the one you already suspect.
3) Lady-san has been around but refusing to talk. Ah, of course, so has Tobias-san, but Tobias-san seems to be around at different hours, when there was little discussion going on, while Lady-san dropped a comment here and there when there was discussion going on, but did not contribute. She may, of course, just be observing, but it shows a caution that caught my eye.
4) Given that Roy-san's interpretation of the clue clears Lady-san (and Ash-san) as sheep, if we put Lady-san up and find her to be a wolf, his interpretation (or the clue itself) is obviously false. (Not necessarily both clue and interpretation are false, though that is a possibility. The clue might be genuine and he may be misinterpreting it, or it might be false and milked for safety.) Of course, this is a very risky proposition.
It is for these reasons that for now I am casting a temporary suspicion vote on Lady-san. I may move it if other things turn up later, of course.
Ah, also, I may be a little late to the voting this evening, but I should not miss it. I've got a prior committment from around 7 pm - 1 am EST (counting in projected travel time!).
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As for voting, so long as I feel I am voting for a wolf, it does not matter to me which one we remove first; if those I believe to be sheep agree on Lady, then I am agreed as well.
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