There aren't a lot of huge surprises in this year's
list, but there are a few shockers.
The main surprise is the intense love that The Reader got. It's a decent movie, but I didn't think it had a shot at Best Picture. Plus, Kate Winslet, despite all the promotion of her for Best Supporting Actress for the film, ended up as a lead nominee (bumping her expected nomination for Revolutionary Road into the toilet). I'm guessing this category correction would also explain why Dev Patel didn't get in, despite 10 other nods for Slumdog. The Reader's Best Picture nod knocked The Dark Knight off the Best Picture list, meaning no comic book movie has yet to be nominated for Best Picture.
Other oddities--
I expected it, but it seems that the Academy has something against Michael Sheen when he's playing real people. No nomination for his Tony Blair in The Queen, and no nomination for him playing David Frost in Frost/Nixon.
Apparently, Waltz With Bashir is one of the five best non-English language movies released in the world last year, but it's not one of the year's best animated films. Who knew that Bolt was that brilliant?
I'm not shocked that there were only three Original Song nominees this year (it really wasn't a very good year for movie songs), but to not nominate Bruce Springsteen in favor of two Bollywood numbers from Slumdog?
Not one nomination for Gran Torino, despite the Academy's intense love of Old Man Clint.
I went 5-for-5 on Actor and Supporting Actor and 4-for-5 on Supporting Actress. However, I only went 2 1/2-for-5 on Actress (right on Winslet, wrong on the movie).
Picture and Director matched up exactly. That doesn't happen very often at all.
Looking for an instant guess on who's going to win, I'll say Slumdog, Boyle, Langella, Winslet, Ledger, and Cruz. But it wouldn't shock me if I go 0-for-that list.