Oscar Nomination Predictions 2009
Tomorrow is almost as much fun as Christmas morning for me, since that is when the nominees for the 81st Annual Academy Awards will be announced. As you might have gleamed, I'm just slightly obsessed with the Oscars, the way Bugs Bunny is just slightly obsessed with carrots (incidentally, only one Bugs Bunny cartoon--1958's Knighty Knight Bugs--won for Best Animated Short).
So, how obsessed am I? Well, last night, I made my predictions for each and every feature-length category (even I'm not crazy enough to try to predict the three short-subject categories). And now, submitted for your approval, is my predictions, along with commentary for the major categories.
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button will be the leading nominee. I predicted 13 nominations for it, but I really don't think it's going to get that many. But which nomination to drop? The Dark Knight is right behind with 11, and Slumdog Millionaire with 9.
Best Picture of the Year:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
Alt: Revolutionary Road
These five have been pretty much joined at the hip together for several weeks. Button and Slumdog are mortal locks, the other three less so. But what will beat them out? Wall-E is too animated, Doubt and The Reader don't have the critical support, The Wrestler and Gran Torino are actor's showcases, and Rachel Getting Married is too arty. Even the film that I think has the best chance of crashing, Revolutionary Road has been compared unfavorably to Mad Men. So, I'm pretty confident that those five will be the five nominees.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role:
Richard Jenkins The Visitor
Frank Langella Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn Milk
Brad Pitt The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke The Wrestler
Alt: Clint Eastwood Gran Torino
Langella, Penn, and Rourke are locks, and will be fighting it out among themselves for the statue. Brad Pitt is also very likely to make it in. That leaves one spot between Leonardo DiCaprio, Clint Eastwood, and Richard Jenkins. Revolutionary Road and Gran Torino are end of the year releases and the two stars have been frequent nominees of late, but my hunch is that veteran character actor Jenkins will snag the last spot for his summer sleeper.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role:
Anne Hathaway Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins Happy-Go-Lucky
Meryl Streep Doubt
Kristin Scott Thomas I Loved You So Long
Kate Winslet Revolutionary Road
Alt: Angelina Jolie Changeling
Hathaway, Streep, and Winslet are locks, with Winslet leading the race to finally snag her first Oscar. Hawkins isn’t a lock yet, but she’s been moving up in recent weeks, and is a strong bet for the fourth spot. Angelina Jolie has been a front-runner for a nomination since Cannes, but the film was unimpressive, and the constant tabloid coverage can’t help. That opens the door for veteran Melissa Leo, but Frozen River was little seen. So, for that matter, was I Loved You So Long, but Kristin Scott Thomas is a prior nominee, which I think will give her the edge.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role:
Josh Brolin Milk
Robert Downey, Jr. Tropic Thunder
Phillip Seymour Hoffman Doubt
Heath Ledger The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon Revolutionary Road
Alt: Dev Patel Slumdog MIllionaire
Ledger is guaranteed to become the first posthumous acting nominee since Massimo Troisi for Il Postino, and is a favorite to become the first posthumous acting winner since Peter Finch for Network. Brolin and Hoffman are also solid choices, and Downey’s performance seems like a good place to honor this year’s comeback kid. For the fifth slot, Slumdog’s Dev Patel seems like a good bet, but he’s little-known, and it doesn’t help that his role is unquestionably the lead role in the film. So, I’m guessing that the nomination will go to Michael Shannon, as the voice of truth in Revolutionary Road.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role:
Penelope Cruz Vicky Christina Barcelona
Viola Davis Doubt
Taraji P. Henson The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei The Wrestler
Kate Winslet The Reader
Alt: Debra Winger Rachel Getting Married
In what’s likely the most fluid category, only Winslet and Cruz are guaranteed to hear their names called Thursday morning. Davis is also a strong possibility. The last two slots are fairly open. Henson and Tomei seem like good bets, but the last two slots could just as easily go to the Rachel Getting Married duo of Debra Winger and Rosemarie DeWitt, or to Golden Globe nominee Rebecca Hall of Vicky Christina Barcelona.
Best Achievement in Directing:
Che Steven Soderbergh
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button David Fincher
The Dark Knight Christopher Nolan
Milk Gus Van Sant
Slumdog Millionaire Danny Boyle
Alt: Revolutionary Road Sam Mendes
The Directors Branch is generally more adventurous than the rest of the Academy, which is why I’m going out on a limb and predicting a nomination for Steven Soderbergh, for his four-hour, two-part biography of the revolutionary leader, even though the film itself has no shot at Best Picture. It was easy to leave out Frost/Nixon’s Ron Howard. Of the five directors of my predicted Best Picture nominees, he’s the only one to have a prior win. Indeed, of the other four, only Gus Van Sant has been nominated for directing before. If it’s not Soderbergh or Howard, Sam Mendes will probably have the edge for Revolutionary Road, over Jonathan Demme for Rachel Getting Married.
Best Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button Eric Roth, Robin Swicord
Doubt John Patrick Shanley
Frost/Nixon Peter Morgan
Revolutionary Road Justin Haythe
Slumdog Millionaire Simon Beaufoy
Alt: The Dark Knight Jonathan Nolan, Christopher Nolan, David S. Goyer
Best Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen:
Milk Dustin Lance Black
Rachel Getting Married Jenny Lumet
Vicky Christina Barcelona Woody Allen
Wall-E Andrew Stanton, Pete Docter, Jim Reardon
The Wrestler Robert D. Siegel
Alt: The Visitor Thomas McCarthy
Best Achievement in Animated Features:
Kung-Fu Panda
Wall-E
Waltz With Bashir
Alt: Bolt
Best Foreign Language Film:
The Badder Meinhof Complex Germany
The Class France
Departures Japan
Revanche Austria
Waltz With Bashir Israel
Alt: Everlasting Moments Sweden
Best Documentary:
Encounters At the End of the World
I.O.U.S.A.
Man on Wire
Standard Operating Procedure
Trouble the Water
Alt: Pray the Devil Back to Hell
Best Achievement in Art Direction:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button Donald Graham Burt
The Dark Knight Nathan Crowley
Doubt David Gropman
Milk Bill Groom
Slumdog Millionaire Mark Digby
Alt: Iron Man J. Michael Riva
Best Achievement in Cinematography:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button Claudio Miranda
The Dark Knight Wally Pfister
Revolutionary Road Roger Deakins
Slumdog Millionaire Anthony Dod Mantle
Vicky Christina Barcelona Javier Aguirresarobe
Alt: Che Peter Andrews
Best Achievement in Costume Design:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button Jacqueline West
The Dark Knight Alexandra Byrne
The Duchess Michael O’Connor
Milk Danny Glicker
Revolutionary Road Albert Wolsky
Alt: Slumdog Millionaire Suttirat Larlarb
Best Achievement in Film Editing:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button Angus Wall, Kirk Baxter
The Dark Knight Lee Smith
Frost/Nixon Mike Hill, Dan Hanley
Milk Elliot Graham
Slumdog Millionaire Chris Dickens
Alt: Wall-E Stephen Schaffer
Best Achievement in Makeup:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Tropic Thunder
Alt: Hellboy II: The Golden Army
Best Achievement in Music (Original Score):
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button Alexandre Desplat
Frost/Nixon Hans Zimmer
Revolutionary Road Thomas Newman
Slumdog Millionaire A.R. Rahman
Wall-E Thomas Newman
Alt: Milk Danny Elfman
Best Achievement in Music (Original Song):
“Down to Earth” Wall-E
“Gran Torino” Gran Torino
“I Thought I Lost You” Bolt
“Jai Ho” Slumdog Millionaire
“The Wrestler” The Wrestler
Alt: “Another Way to Die” Quantum of Solace
Best Achievement in Sound Editing:
The Dark Knight
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
Iron Man
Slumdog Millionaire
Wall-E
Alt: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Best Achievement in Sound Mixing:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Quantum of Solace
Wall-E
Alt: Slumdog Millionaire
Best Achievement in Visual Effects:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Alt: Journey to the Center of the Earth
So, how obsessed am I? Well, last night, I made my predictions for each and every feature-length category (even I'm not crazy enough to try to predict the three short-subject categories). And now, submitted for your approval, is my predictions, along with commentary for the major categories.
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button will be the leading nominee. I predicted 13 nominations for it, but I really don't think it's going to get that many. But which nomination to drop? The Dark Knight is right behind with 11, and Slumdog Millionaire with 9.
Best Picture of the Year:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
Alt: Revolutionary Road
These five have been pretty much joined at the hip together for several weeks. Button and Slumdog are mortal locks, the other three less so. But what will beat them out? Wall-E is too animated, Doubt and The Reader don't have the critical support, The Wrestler and Gran Torino are actor's showcases, and Rachel Getting Married is too arty. Even the film that I think has the best chance of crashing, Revolutionary Road has been compared unfavorably to Mad Men. So, I'm pretty confident that those five will be the five nominees.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role:
Richard Jenkins The Visitor
Frank Langella Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn Milk
Brad Pitt The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke The Wrestler
Alt: Clint Eastwood Gran Torino
Langella, Penn, and Rourke are locks, and will be fighting it out among themselves for the statue. Brad Pitt is also very likely to make it in. That leaves one spot between Leonardo DiCaprio, Clint Eastwood, and Richard Jenkins. Revolutionary Road and Gran Torino are end of the year releases and the two stars have been frequent nominees of late, but my hunch is that veteran character actor Jenkins will snag the last spot for his summer sleeper.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role:
Anne Hathaway Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins Happy-Go-Lucky
Meryl Streep Doubt
Kristin Scott Thomas I Loved You So Long
Kate Winslet Revolutionary Road
Alt: Angelina Jolie Changeling
Hathaway, Streep, and Winslet are locks, with Winslet leading the race to finally snag her first Oscar. Hawkins isn’t a lock yet, but she’s been moving up in recent weeks, and is a strong bet for the fourth spot. Angelina Jolie has been a front-runner for a nomination since Cannes, but the film was unimpressive, and the constant tabloid coverage can’t help. That opens the door for veteran Melissa Leo, but Frozen River was little seen. So, for that matter, was I Loved You So Long, but Kristin Scott Thomas is a prior nominee, which I think will give her the edge.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role:
Josh Brolin Milk
Robert Downey, Jr. Tropic Thunder
Phillip Seymour Hoffman Doubt
Heath Ledger The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon Revolutionary Road
Alt: Dev Patel Slumdog MIllionaire
Ledger is guaranteed to become the first posthumous acting nominee since Massimo Troisi for Il Postino, and is a favorite to become the first posthumous acting winner since Peter Finch for Network. Brolin and Hoffman are also solid choices, and Downey’s performance seems like a good place to honor this year’s comeback kid. For the fifth slot, Slumdog’s Dev Patel seems like a good bet, but he’s little-known, and it doesn’t help that his role is unquestionably the lead role in the film. So, I’m guessing that the nomination will go to Michael Shannon, as the voice of truth in Revolutionary Road.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role:
Penelope Cruz Vicky Christina Barcelona
Viola Davis Doubt
Taraji P. Henson The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei The Wrestler
Kate Winslet The Reader
Alt: Debra Winger Rachel Getting Married
In what’s likely the most fluid category, only Winslet and Cruz are guaranteed to hear their names called Thursday morning. Davis is also a strong possibility. The last two slots are fairly open. Henson and Tomei seem like good bets, but the last two slots could just as easily go to the Rachel Getting Married duo of Debra Winger and Rosemarie DeWitt, or to Golden Globe nominee Rebecca Hall of Vicky Christina Barcelona.
Best Achievement in Directing:
Che Steven Soderbergh
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button David Fincher
The Dark Knight Christopher Nolan
Milk Gus Van Sant
Slumdog Millionaire Danny Boyle
Alt: Revolutionary Road Sam Mendes
The Directors Branch is generally more adventurous than the rest of the Academy, which is why I’m going out on a limb and predicting a nomination for Steven Soderbergh, for his four-hour, two-part biography of the revolutionary leader, even though the film itself has no shot at Best Picture. It was easy to leave out Frost/Nixon’s Ron Howard. Of the five directors of my predicted Best Picture nominees, he’s the only one to have a prior win. Indeed, of the other four, only Gus Van Sant has been nominated for directing before. If it’s not Soderbergh or Howard, Sam Mendes will probably have the edge for Revolutionary Road, over Jonathan Demme for Rachel Getting Married.
Best Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button Eric Roth, Robin Swicord
Doubt John Patrick Shanley
Frost/Nixon Peter Morgan
Revolutionary Road Justin Haythe
Slumdog Millionaire Simon Beaufoy
Alt: The Dark Knight Jonathan Nolan, Christopher Nolan, David S. Goyer
Best Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen:
Milk Dustin Lance Black
Rachel Getting Married Jenny Lumet
Vicky Christina Barcelona Woody Allen
Wall-E Andrew Stanton, Pete Docter, Jim Reardon
The Wrestler Robert D. Siegel
Alt: The Visitor Thomas McCarthy
Best Achievement in Animated Features:
Kung-Fu Panda
Wall-E
Waltz With Bashir
Alt: Bolt
Best Foreign Language Film:
The Badder Meinhof Complex Germany
The Class France
Departures Japan
Revanche Austria
Waltz With Bashir Israel
Alt: Everlasting Moments Sweden
Best Documentary:
Encounters At the End of the World
I.O.U.S.A.
Man on Wire
Standard Operating Procedure
Trouble the Water
Alt: Pray the Devil Back to Hell
Best Achievement in Art Direction:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button Donald Graham Burt
The Dark Knight Nathan Crowley
Doubt David Gropman
Milk Bill Groom
Slumdog Millionaire Mark Digby
Alt: Iron Man J. Michael Riva
Best Achievement in Cinematography:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button Claudio Miranda
The Dark Knight Wally Pfister
Revolutionary Road Roger Deakins
Slumdog Millionaire Anthony Dod Mantle
Vicky Christina Barcelona Javier Aguirresarobe
Alt: Che Peter Andrews
Best Achievement in Costume Design:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button Jacqueline West
The Dark Knight Alexandra Byrne
The Duchess Michael O’Connor
Milk Danny Glicker
Revolutionary Road Albert Wolsky
Alt: Slumdog Millionaire Suttirat Larlarb
Best Achievement in Film Editing:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button Angus Wall, Kirk Baxter
The Dark Knight Lee Smith
Frost/Nixon Mike Hill, Dan Hanley
Milk Elliot Graham
Slumdog Millionaire Chris Dickens
Alt: Wall-E Stephen Schaffer
Best Achievement in Makeup:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Tropic Thunder
Alt: Hellboy II: The Golden Army
Best Achievement in Music (Original Score):
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button Alexandre Desplat
Frost/Nixon Hans Zimmer
Revolutionary Road Thomas Newman
Slumdog Millionaire A.R. Rahman
Wall-E Thomas Newman
Alt: Milk Danny Elfman
Best Achievement in Music (Original Song):
“Down to Earth” Wall-E
“Gran Torino” Gran Torino
“I Thought I Lost You” Bolt
“Jai Ho” Slumdog Millionaire
“The Wrestler” The Wrestler
Alt: “Another Way to Die” Quantum of Solace
Best Achievement in Sound Editing:
The Dark Knight
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
Iron Man
Slumdog Millionaire
Wall-E
Alt: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Best Achievement in Sound Mixing:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Quantum of Solace
Wall-E
Alt: Slumdog Millionaire
Best Achievement in Visual Effects:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Alt: Journey to the Center of the Earth