The Dog Races
While everyone has been focused on the presidential race, especially after Romney declared Ryan to be his VP pick, there have been a lot of things happening. The Tennessee race got interesting because the Democrats have officially renounced the candidate who won the primary there. Tonight, Tommy Thompson won the Republican Senate primary race in Wisconsin and WWE titan Linda McMahon won in Connecticut, beating out an actual lawmaker to do so. As fans of the US system will know, we put up 1/3 of the Senate for vote every two years. Each Senator serves a six-year term, but the chamber can change pretty quickly. This has the potential of being one of those years. While a number of Republicans are retiring, such as Olympia Snowe (R-ME), many retiring are Democrats, such as Daniel Akaka (D-HI), Jeff Bingaman (D-NM), Herb Kohl (D-WI) Ben Nelson (D-NE) and Jim Webb (D-VA) and one is Joe Lieberman (who was facing certain defeat anyway). They are retiring for all kinds of reason like Health (Akaka, Kohl) and some are just sick of the Senate (Webb, Snowe, Bingaman) and some are just wanting to get out while the getting is good (Nelson, Lieberman). This has left the Senate in a precarious position for the Democrats since this means there are more of their seats to defend. The upside for Democrats is that it is a presidential year, and that means more voters are going to the polls anyway. The downside is they are defending a lot more territory than they were hoping for. While to defend everything is to defend nothing, the Democrats are hoping to paint the Republican Senate hopefuls a singular force, rather than individuals. And they have better luck this year than most.
Oldest news first, let's go with the Tennessee Senate race. VERY loyal fans of MidnightRanter will remember I strongly dislike the man who is currently the Senator from the Volunteer State: Bob Corker. He ran a racist and inflammatory ad against a great man, Harold Ford Jr. which cost Ford the election despite being the better candidate. Well, Corker is up for re-election, and the Democrats never really cared much about this seat since they assumed it was pretty safe for the Republicans. There was a primary with seven names on it, including actress Park Overall. She came in third with 15%. The winner was a man named Mark Clayton, who has now been disavowed like a bad Mission:Impossible member because of his leadership position in an anti-gay lobbying group called Public Advocate. The party wants nothing to do with this guy, and rightfully so. Some in the Republican party have been quick to embrace him for his anti-gay rights views, so Corker probably has this in the bag. The Democratic party has been telling people to write-in the name of their favorite candidate, but write in campaigns RARELY work well; Sen. Murkowski of Alaska is the last person to win in a write-in campaign since Strom Thurmond in 1954. So, in this race, it looks like Corker hangs in there, but he really needs to be taken out of office sooner rather than later.
So, on we move to Connecticut where Linda McMahon is the official Republican candidate for the senate there. She is, of course, the wife of WWE founder and chief Vince McMahon. She was also an executive in that organization, which she is using as why she should have office: she's a proven job creator. Of course, she's leaving out the bit where she ran in 2010 and lost hard. But, she did win the primary, beating out former House member Christopher Shays, the official last of the New England Rockefeller Republicans. Shays was an actual politician who did actual political work for actual reasons. He was a professional politician, and that made him easy pickings for someone like McMahon in an anti-establishment year. McMahon has, predictably, swung to the Tea Party side of things and defeated Shays by promising the moon and sky while cutting taxes; the new American dream. The Democrat running for this seat is Chris Murphy, who has been in the House since 2007. Murphy has been a strong Democrat in the House, and has a solid voting record behind him. Liberman retired because he knew he would lose if he were to run again; about 66% of people in the Nutmeg State said they would vote for anyone but Lieberman. He has been in office since 1989 and is getting a little long in the tooth for the Senate. Good money puts him in, eventually, a lobbying role for Israel or, if possible, running for the Knesset. So, he is out, Connecticut is looking for someone more stable than Lieberman, so it comes to Murphy and McMahon. Murphy is more likely to win owing both to being a veteran of nasty campaigns and McMahon having already lost one. Murphy is raising a war chest to compete with the billionaire family, which might negate her great advantage.
Wisconsin reported last, so here they are. Former governor and Bush 43 cabinet secretary Tommy Thompson beat out a varied field to come in on top. He got 34% of the vote, compared to Eric Hovde who got 31%. The next runners up were former House member Mark Neumann and and Assembly speaker Jeff Fitzgerald. Hovde was a Tea Party favorite against the former establishment man, but Thompson pulled it out, barely. The Democrats wanted to put up Russ Feingold, who held a Senate seat before, but he refused, so the Democrats have put up Tammy Baldwin, a member of the House since 1999. She is one of the most liberal members of the House and the highest ranking lesbian in the Congress (which is only remarkable because it's the tenth thing people care about her, but it does make her the first openly gay challenger in a Congressional race). In generic polling, she had been coming ahead by hefty margin, but those kinds of polls are rarely indicative of anything in reality. How she'll do against Thompson is anyone's guess. Thompson was the Secretary for Health and Human Services and even ran for president for about five minutes back in 2008. Hovde was a businessman (surprised?) who was funding a lot of his own campaign. Thompson had to overcome a lot of issues about his health (he's 70), and so he dropped and did 50 pushups on command. It'll be a great fight there because Ryan is from the Wisconsin 1st, so there will be a lot more excitement there politically.
All of these races have something in common: they're ALL aberrations in one form or another. By any serious political measure, these are all really stupid races. But, Congressional approval is down near 10% right now, which means it's an open field for anyone. It's especially open for those who are looking to buck the system. Virginia will likely be another tight race, as former governor Kaine goes against former governor and senator George "Macaca" Allen. In previous races, a lot of these places had "blue dogs" running, which is a term for more conservative members of the Democratic party. Tennessee used to have something called the "yellow dog" rule, which was basically "the Democratic Party could nominate a yellow dog and it would still win". While that hasn't been true for at least 20 years, it's really not true now since they pretty much DID nominate a yellow dog and he's still gonna lose big. McMahon shouldn't be a candidate, and no way should she beat a real politician for the primary, but she did. The Democrats should have been better organized than to just let the guy who's name came up first win the Democratic nomination, but that's why Clayton won. Tammy Baldwin should have lost her seat years ago, but right now, she's in a pretty good fight against a former Bushie. . .who was not the most conservative guy on the ballot. In any event, all these races could get a little bloody, but if the Democrats want to hang on to the Senate, they need to win two out of three.
But that's what an election year is, a lot of fun races everyone else misses.
So it is written, so do I see it.
Oldest news first, let's go with the Tennessee Senate race. VERY loyal fans of MidnightRanter will remember I strongly dislike the man who is currently the Senator from the Volunteer State: Bob Corker. He ran a racist and inflammatory ad against a great man, Harold Ford Jr. which cost Ford the election despite being the better candidate. Well, Corker is up for re-election, and the Democrats never really cared much about this seat since they assumed it was pretty safe for the Republicans. There was a primary with seven names on it, including actress Park Overall. She came in third with 15%. The winner was a man named Mark Clayton, who has now been disavowed like a bad Mission:Impossible member because of his leadership position in an anti-gay lobbying group called Public Advocate. The party wants nothing to do with this guy, and rightfully so. Some in the Republican party have been quick to embrace him for his anti-gay rights views, so Corker probably has this in the bag. The Democratic party has been telling people to write-in the name of their favorite candidate, but write in campaigns RARELY work well; Sen. Murkowski of Alaska is the last person to win in a write-in campaign since Strom Thurmond in 1954. So, in this race, it looks like Corker hangs in there, but he really needs to be taken out of office sooner rather than later.
So, on we move to Connecticut where Linda McMahon is the official Republican candidate for the senate there. She is, of course, the wife of WWE founder and chief Vince McMahon. She was also an executive in that organization, which she is using as why she should have office: she's a proven job creator. Of course, she's leaving out the bit where she ran in 2010 and lost hard. But, she did win the primary, beating out former House member Christopher Shays, the official last of the New England Rockefeller Republicans. Shays was an actual politician who did actual political work for actual reasons. He was a professional politician, and that made him easy pickings for someone like McMahon in an anti-establishment year. McMahon has, predictably, swung to the Tea Party side of things and defeated Shays by promising the moon and sky while cutting taxes; the new American dream. The Democrat running for this seat is Chris Murphy, who has been in the House since 2007. Murphy has been a strong Democrat in the House, and has a solid voting record behind him. Liberman retired because he knew he would lose if he were to run again; about 66% of people in the Nutmeg State said they would vote for anyone but Lieberman. He has been in office since 1989 and is getting a little long in the tooth for the Senate. Good money puts him in, eventually, a lobbying role for Israel or, if possible, running for the Knesset. So, he is out, Connecticut is looking for someone more stable than Lieberman, so it comes to Murphy and McMahon. Murphy is more likely to win owing both to being a veteran of nasty campaigns and McMahon having already lost one. Murphy is raising a war chest to compete with the billionaire family, which might negate her great advantage.
Wisconsin reported last, so here they are. Former governor and Bush 43 cabinet secretary Tommy Thompson beat out a varied field to come in on top. He got 34% of the vote, compared to Eric Hovde who got 31%. The next runners up were former House member Mark Neumann and and Assembly speaker Jeff Fitzgerald. Hovde was a Tea Party favorite against the former establishment man, but Thompson pulled it out, barely. The Democrats wanted to put up Russ Feingold, who held a Senate seat before, but he refused, so the Democrats have put up Tammy Baldwin, a member of the House since 1999. She is one of the most liberal members of the House and the highest ranking lesbian in the Congress (which is only remarkable because it's the tenth thing people care about her, but it does make her the first openly gay challenger in a Congressional race). In generic polling, she had been coming ahead by hefty margin, but those kinds of polls are rarely indicative of anything in reality. How she'll do against Thompson is anyone's guess. Thompson was the Secretary for Health and Human Services and even ran for president for about five minutes back in 2008. Hovde was a businessman (surprised?) who was funding a lot of his own campaign. Thompson had to overcome a lot of issues about his health (he's 70), and so he dropped and did 50 pushups on command. It'll be a great fight there because Ryan is from the Wisconsin 1st, so there will be a lot more excitement there politically.
All of these races have something in common: they're ALL aberrations in one form or another. By any serious political measure, these are all really stupid races. But, Congressional approval is down near 10% right now, which means it's an open field for anyone. It's especially open for those who are looking to buck the system. Virginia will likely be another tight race, as former governor Kaine goes against former governor and senator George "Macaca" Allen. In previous races, a lot of these places had "blue dogs" running, which is a term for more conservative members of the Democratic party. Tennessee used to have something called the "yellow dog" rule, which was basically "the Democratic Party could nominate a yellow dog and it would still win". While that hasn't been true for at least 20 years, it's really not true now since they pretty much DID nominate a yellow dog and he's still gonna lose big. McMahon shouldn't be a candidate, and no way should she beat a real politician for the primary, but she did. The Democrats should have been better organized than to just let the guy who's name came up first win the Democratic nomination, but that's why Clayton won. Tammy Baldwin should have lost her seat years ago, but right now, she's in a pretty good fight against a former Bushie. . .who was not the most conservative guy on the ballot. In any event, all these races could get a little bloody, but if the Democrats want to hang on to the Senate, they need to win two out of three.
But that's what an election year is, a lot of fun races everyone else misses.
So it is written, so do I see it.