Mad Money Men
In a move that surprised no political pundits who had been paying attention, Mitt Romney picked Rep. Paul Ryan to be his running mate in the upcoming election. Ryan, currently representing Wisconsin's First district, has been serving since 1999 and has long been a leader on fiscal responsibility and budgetary issues. Paul Ryan, long seen as a rising star in the Republican party, has been touted for much of the election as a possible running mate. He became the poster boy for Republican budgetary issues when he released The Path to Prosperity in April of 2011, and again this year. It's most notable for turning Medicare into a voucher system, repealing the Affordable Care Act and consolidating the tax bracket system into two brackets from the current six. The plan passed the House with no Democratic votes and died in the Senate. However, the effort did help solidify his reputation as a wonk and possibly the smartest Republican in the House. He's a wonk's wonk in terms of budget. His reputation outside the Beltway, however, is a little less well know and less nuanced. Many progressive groups have been fast to paint him as wanting to kill Medicare and gut Social Security under the name of fiscal responsibility. Under that banner, many of the right have embraced him lovingly, which Romney never seemed able to pull off. However, he hasn't captured all of the right and he may not be the man help Romney win in November. Indeed, Christmas may have come early for the President.
Ryan is a dynamic political person well known in political circles as being quite brainy and very serious on fiscal issues. Sadly, he votes on more than just those issues, but he is the Republican's Boy Wonder on the economy after the mess that Bush 43 started. He has been a Tea Party favorite despite not being a full-fledged member of the Tea Party. Of course, he has never been fully endorsed by the Tea Party because he is dedicated on cutting the one huge entitlement program that many members of the Tea Party love, namely Medicare. He came up with a full budget, which is more than many other members of Congress can claim to have even read. While he and Romney are both Republican politicians, their paths haven't crossed much. He's been in the House for the past 13 years and Romney has been anywhere but Congress in all the time. He was either running Massachusetts or running the Olympics, or just running for office. Sadly, Ryan isn't free of flip flops himself, specifically on his appreciation for Ayn Rand. Ryan has had to go back and forth on this since, as a devout Catholic, her Objectivist philosophy (me doing whatever I want is the greatest moral good with a touch of atheism) clashed with Catholic beliefs as he expressed them to various Catholic groups over the years.
So what does he believe? Well, from the way he's voted over the years, he has a lot of views that would place him outside the mainstream of American voters. Luckily, here is a good accounting of his votes and statements on lots of different issues. Abortion, he seems to be against all of it and any kind of funding. Gun control, against it and voted to decrease waiting periods. Gay rights, he backed a Constitutional amendment defining marriage as between a man and a woman as well as plenty of other acts of legislation aimed at denying marriage rights to gay people. Education, he voted against giving more money to schools, but pro allowing prayer in school and more testing (which leads to the great irony of wanting more testing but not wanting to pay for it). Security, he voted against requiring FISA to get warrants to tap phone lines anywhere, voted for extending the PATRIOT Act and voted for deploying SDI. Health care, where to begin, let's just say if there was a way to vote against giving people health care, he voted for it and anytime anyone thought of extending any kind of health care, he voted against it. He also voted to cap damages, not require looking for cheapest drugs and wanted to replace the whole Medicare system with a $9500/year voucher system. If you total all of those up, he falls far to the right of most American voters. How far to the right? According to some analyses, he's as far right as Michelle Bachmann. A caveat there, I don't think Ryan wants to end Medicare because he hates old people, he just genuinely believes it's not the role of government to be in the health care business; I think Bachmann does hate Muslim people after this letter.
Of course, the most immediate problem is where does this leave the election. Well, Social Security is often called the third rail of politics: touch it and you die. Romney just grabbed it with both hands when he picked Ryan, who had been playing with it for years. On the electoral map, this means he can kiss the already dicey Florida good bye. Probably, Iowa and New Hampshire as well. This also means that Arizona is not going to be as safe as it should be. Despite his being from there, this will not really put Wisconsin in play. Indiana might go into play more since so much of their population is right in the age that Ryan would cut off in Medicare reforms. This might actually help in Virginia, but it may not matter there since Virgil Goode is on a third party presidential bid there and is polling around 9%. Of course, that might not last if the investigation into possible ballot irregularities goes anywhere. Ryan on the ticket might get some of the more independent minded Virginians back on the bus, if Goode pulls just 2% of the vote, that could be the difference between defeat and victory. Ryan probably won't help in North Carolina, where most very conservative voters are highly religious, and might be skeptical of a Mormon and a budget guru on the same ticket. Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and other states with aging populations will be more hesitant to vote as well. California, which has one of the youngest populations, was never going to vote Romney anyway. Nevada is probably out of reach as well. Again, states with big retired communities are going to be more skeptical of Romney now, and that's not the kind of thing Republican candidates like to face in a tough election year.
Which gets into the other issue, what people aren't coming aboard? Well, the more religious member of the Tea Party are probably out. They were looking for a Huckabee or Santorum nomination to feel courted and now they've been left in the cold. Sure, there will still be plenty of them voting, but they will not be out there campaigning for Romney and they might be privately discussing their own doubts about the R&R ticket. Some of them were waiting to see if they got a little love, and they got nothing. And judging by the speaking schedule at the Republican convention, it doesn't look like they'll get much love there either. While Ryan has made every vote he can against abortion rights, that's not his raison d'etre. Budget concerns are, and that's what he has chosen to be known for. Also, a Catholic and a Mormon on the ticket are not exactly the religions/sects that many very religious voters like in their candidates. Polls have consistently shown that Mormon candidates still face a lot of disdain by many other voters. And while Ryan is Catholic like Santorum is, he hasn't made this his defining quality as a politician. Santorum was a strong proponent of funding to fight AIDS in Africa because it was the Christian charitable thing to do, while Ryan always looked at things through the budget deficit lens. Ryan is also not a great choice for a lot of independents, especially when his position on so many issues becomes known to the voters at large. This will not help with women voters as a whole, nor any specific ethnic votes. Then again, a specifically ethnic candidate could have backfired pretty horribly, so no loss on points for not going there.
Normally, a VP's views are not much of a factor, but this is where Romney's lack of policy clarification and inability to define himself come into play. Romney has been painted as the master of the flip-flop and having no real policy plans, and he himself said he wanted to pick someone of vision. So now, they are BOTH going to be defined by all of Ryan's votes and statements. And while he does have some of the most specific and constant political views in American politics, that doesn't mean they'll be anything that people like. Also, this ticket has nothing for defense or security voters. This might be the first election in the better part of a century when the Democrat is not going to be hammered for being weak on defense. Obama got bin Laden and Romney got rich. That's why we haven't heard anything from the Republican party about defense or security this time around. It was one thing when McCain was arguing for it, a comedic thing when Palin was talking about it, and it would be damaging if Romney were to suggest he would be a better commander-in-chief than Obama. Obama's war record (getting bin Laden, getting out of Iraq, seeing closure in Afghanistan) is better than anything either of them could put up. As a bonus, it would point back to one area where Ryan very much voted to increase the budget with little oversight: the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. Because Romney has no views of his own, Ryan will be filling that vacuum of policy stands.
There is another side to this that is actually something close to positive. This will be first election in a while that is really about the nature of government. Romney/Ryan have shown they are pro-tax cut, anti-spending, anti-government intrusion, anti-abortion and pro-business. Obama/Biden is pro-government protection of rights, pro-regulation, pro-"equity", and generally want to use the powers of government to protect the rights of the minority against uncertain futures. This is the discussion so many serious political philosophers have been waiting for to happen. We need a serious examination of how far should government go to protect people and much freedom should people have to do whatever they like. We need to seriously look at and decide on just how much we want government in our lives. Most people seem to like the idea of Social Security, but would like to see it managed better than it is now rather than just kicked down the road. Most people are comfortable with people owning firearms, but also pretty sure that grenade launchers were not what the Founding Fathers had in mind. There are a lot of smaller issues that can be decided by what kind of philosophy of government we have at the top. Of course, the legislative branch will have more than a little say, but we're voting on them as well. Again, that could cut against Republicans in down races if many of the crowds are not fired up about Romney. If Obama has to make Romney play defense in previously safe areas, that means more time and money he can spend on down races and help other candidates win House races. It's unlikely to flip, but a lot of damage can be done. There are going to be questions about do we want to repeal parts of the Great Society and the New Deal, or even the Sherman Anti-Trust Act to encourage business. There will be questions about the future of our Republic and we must answer them.
And the only way to answer is to vote.
So it is written, so do I see it.
PS The jokes have started. The best nickname for the ticket I've heard so far, referencing both Romney's financial background and Ryan's plan for Medicare is "Vulture/Voucher '12"
Also, if people are interested, the full vetting report about Paul Ryan is here.
Ryan is a dynamic political person well known in political circles as being quite brainy and very serious on fiscal issues. Sadly, he votes on more than just those issues, but he is the Republican's Boy Wonder on the economy after the mess that Bush 43 started. He has been a Tea Party favorite despite not being a full-fledged member of the Tea Party. Of course, he has never been fully endorsed by the Tea Party because he is dedicated on cutting the one huge entitlement program that many members of the Tea Party love, namely Medicare. He came up with a full budget, which is more than many other members of Congress can claim to have even read. While he and Romney are both Republican politicians, their paths haven't crossed much. He's been in the House for the past 13 years and Romney has been anywhere but Congress in all the time. He was either running Massachusetts or running the Olympics, or just running for office. Sadly, Ryan isn't free of flip flops himself, specifically on his appreciation for Ayn Rand. Ryan has had to go back and forth on this since, as a devout Catholic, her Objectivist philosophy (me doing whatever I want is the greatest moral good with a touch of atheism) clashed with Catholic beliefs as he expressed them to various Catholic groups over the years.
So what does he believe? Well, from the way he's voted over the years, he has a lot of views that would place him outside the mainstream of American voters. Luckily, here is a good accounting of his votes and statements on lots of different issues. Abortion, he seems to be against all of it and any kind of funding. Gun control, against it and voted to decrease waiting periods. Gay rights, he backed a Constitutional amendment defining marriage as between a man and a woman as well as plenty of other acts of legislation aimed at denying marriage rights to gay people. Education, he voted against giving more money to schools, but pro allowing prayer in school and more testing (which leads to the great irony of wanting more testing but not wanting to pay for it). Security, he voted against requiring FISA to get warrants to tap phone lines anywhere, voted for extending the PATRIOT Act and voted for deploying SDI. Health care, where to begin, let's just say if there was a way to vote against giving people health care, he voted for it and anytime anyone thought of extending any kind of health care, he voted against it. He also voted to cap damages, not require looking for cheapest drugs and wanted to replace the whole Medicare system with a $9500/year voucher system. If you total all of those up, he falls far to the right of most American voters. How far to the right? According to some analyses, he's as far right as Michelle Bachmann. A caveat there, I don't think Ryan wants to end Medicare because he hates old people, he just genuinely believes it's not the role of government to be in the health care business; I think Bachmann does hate Muslim people after this letter.
Of course, the most immediate problem is where does this leave the election. Well, Social Security is often called the third rail of politics: touch it and you die. Romney just grabbed it with both hands when he picked Ryan, who had been playing with it for years. On the electoral map, this means he can kiss the already dicey Florida good bye. Probably, Iowa and New Hampshire as well. This also means that Arizona is not going to be as safe as it should be. Despite his being from there, this will not really put Wisconsin in play. Indiana might go into play more since so much of their population is right in the age that Ryan would cut off in Medicare reforms. This might actually help in Virginia, but it may not matter there since Virgil Goode is on a third party presidential bid there and is polling around 9%. Of course, that might not last if the investigation into possible ballot irregularities goes anywhere. Ryan on the ticket might get some of the more independent minded Virginians back on the bus, if Goode pulls just 2% of the vote, that could be the difference between defeat and victory. Ryan probably won't help in North Carolina, where most very conservative voters are highly religious, and might be skeptical of a Mormon and a budget guru on the same ticket. Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and other states with aging populations will be more hesitant to vote as well. California, which has one of the youngest populations, was never going to vote Romney anyway. Nevada is probably out of reach as well. Again, states with big retired communities are going to be more skeptical of Romney now, and that's not the kind of thing Republican candidates like to face in a tough election year.
Which gets into the other issue, what people aren't coming aboard? Well, the more religious member of the Tea Party are probably out. They were looking for a Huckabee or Santorum nomination to feel courted and now they've been left in the cold. Sure, there will still be plenty of them voting, but they will not be out there campaigning for Romney and they might be privately discussing their own doubts about the R&R ticket. Some of them were waiting to see if they got a little love, and they got nothing. And judging by the speaking schedule at the Republican convention, it doesn't look like they'll get much love there either. While Ryan has made every vote he can against abortion rights, that's not his raison d'etre. Budget concerns are, and that's what he has chosen to be known for. Also, a Catholic and a Mormon on the ticket are not exactly the religions/sects that many very religious voters like in their candidates. Polls have consistently shown that Mormon candidates still face a lot of disdain by many other voters. And while Ryan is Catholic like Santorum is, he hasn't made this his defining quality as a politician. Santorum was a strong proponent of funding to fight AIDS in Africa because it was the Christian charitable thing to do, while Ryan always looked at things through the budget deficit lens. Ryan is also not a great choice for a lot of independents, especially when his position on so many issues becomes known to the voters at large. This will not help with women voters as a whole, nor any specific ethnic votes. Then again, a specifically ethnic candidate could have backfired pretty horribly, so no loss on points for not going there.
Normally, a VP's views are not much of a factor, but this is where Romney's lack of policy clarification and inability to define himself come into play. Romney has been painted as the master of the flip-flop and having no real policy plans, and he himself said he wanted to pick someone of vision. So now, they are BOTH going to be defined by all of Ryan's votes and statements. And while he does have some of the most specific and constant political views in American politics, that doesn't mean they'll be anything that people like. Also, this ticket has nothing for defense or security voters. This might be the first election in the better part of a century when the Democrat is not going to be hammered for being weak on defense. Obama got bin Laden and Romney got rich. That's why we haven't heard anything from the Republican party about defense or security this time around. It was one thing when McCain was arguing for it, a comedic thing when Palin was talking about it, and it would be damaging if Romney were to suggest he would be a better commander-in-chief than Obama. Obama's war record (getting bin Laden, getting out of Iraq, seeing closure in Afghanistan) is better than anything either of them could put up. As a bonus, it would point back to one area where Ryan very much voted to increase the budget with little oversight: the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. Because Romney has no views of his own, Ryan will be filling that vacuum of policy stands.
There is another side to this that is actually something close to positive. This will be first election in a while that is really about the nature of government. Romney/Ryan have shown they are pro-tax cut, anti-spending, anti-government intrusion, anti-abortion and pro-business. Obama/Biden is pro-government protection of rights, pro-regulation, pro-"equity", and generally want to use the powers of government to protect the rights of the minority against uncertain futures. This is the discussion so many serious political philosophers have been waiting for to happen. We need a serious examination of how far should government go to protect people and much freedom should people have to do whatever they like. We need to seriously look at and decide on just how much we want government in our lives. Most people seem to like the idea of Social Security, but would like to see it managed better than it is now rather than just kicked down the road. Most people are comfortable with people owning firearms, but also pretty sure that grenade launchers were not what the Founding Fathers had in mind. There are a lot of smaller issues that can be decided by what kind of philosophy of government we have at the top. Of course, the legislative branch will have more than a little say, but we're voting on them as well. Again, that could cut against Republicans in down races if many of the crowds are not fired up about Romney. If Obama has to make Romney play defense in previously safe areas, that means more time and money he can spend on down races and help other candidates win House races. It's unlikely to flip, but a lot of damage can be done. There are going to be questions about do we want to repeal parts of the Great Society and the New Deal, or even the Sherman Anti-Trust Act to encourage business. There will be questions about the future of our Republic and we must answer them.
And the only way to answer is to vote.
So it is written, so do I see it.
PS The jokes have started. The best nickname for the ticket I've heard so far, referencing both Romney's financial background and Ryan's plan for Medicare is "Vulture/Voucher '12"
Also, if people are interested, the full vetting report about Paul Ryan is here.