Getting bin Laden: Hurling Little Streets Upon the Great
Yet another in the reactions to the death of bin Laden series, but this time not from the Americas. What's most fascinating right now is the reaction from the Middle East. You can always tell good news from bad news by who is cheering about it all. Most notably, there have been no reports of mourners rending garments in the streets of Amman (Jordan), Riyadh (Saudi Arabia), Damascus (Syria), Tehran (Iran) or any of the other places where bin Laden allegedly had tons and tons of fans. The only accounts of any real governments doing mourning came from The Jerusalem Post, which is kind of like pointing to Fox News for a story on the Democratic party: at best, it might not be a lie, but there will be key facts left out. Most people in the "Arab Street" are not too emotional one way or the other about the death of bin Laden. Some have expressed relief that he's no longer with us, both because he was a symbol of all that America misread about Islam, Muslims and people in west Asia but also because hopefully this will make America sane again. Pakistan has already called for America to start thinking, seriously, about how to drawn down troops in Afghanistan and elsewhere. The Saudis haven't had much of a comment, despite bin Laden being born there and his family being close to the royal family. Syria has had no real comment since they're too busy arresting and killing their own people. Most of the rest of the Middle East has been quiet, including America's great friend Israel. Israel has shown no great statements of relief, unlike the US's European allies. Israel has shown no celebration, and in fact has barely released a statement at all. Bin Laden's popularity had been waning in countries in the Middle East, and at this point, this is the nail in the coffin for public support of Al-Qaeda and bin Laden. Unlike chess, the next move belongs to the Americans, who have to counter their own move just made.
Of course, the main reason why a lot of Middle Eastern countries haven't been giving much of a reaction to all this is that they are embroiled in conflicts of their own. Tunisia is still trying to form a government. Egypt is doing the same. Libya is in full scale civil war. Syria is too busy using football stadiums for mass arrests in an effort to not be the next country to overthrow its tyrannical leadership. Iran is currently undergoing some problems of their own so they're not supporting anyone either. The only ones who are keeping quiet despite a previous history of speaking out and no civil war brewing is Saudi Arabia. As every country that might have a population that might have supported bin Laden starts to fight for rights instead of religion, they are taking away future potential followers for bin Laden. Sure, he knew how to whip up a good firestorm and he managed to get very disparate groups who normally hate each to actually cooperate under one banner, but he's gone and that's not going to last. Even if he were alive, that alliance was going to start falling apart anyway. Palestinians will eventually just want a land of their own, irrespective of destroying Israel. Syrians will eventually want more rights regardless of the teachings of al-Qaeda on their interpretation of shari'a law. As each group gets more and more nationalized, the harder and harder it is for groups to cut across to hate the "Crusader-Jew Alliance". After all, it's easier to hate the guys in uniforms you recognize day to day fucking you up directly than a convoluted sense of who the enemy is. The US may not have made a whole lot of friends in the area, but that doesn't mean we're actively taking away rights from Egyptians and Syrians.
So the Syrian populace is hating the Syrian government, the Egyptian people are too busy trying to come up with an orderly transition of government and most other countries are on the brink of revolution or or their leaders want no part of this mess. Bin Laden may have been popular in some areas for a small while, but that's o longer the case. For the math types who are reading this, bin Laden's popularity is directly proportional to the dickishness of the American president. It's hard for a lot of the Middle East to hate Obama as much, or in the same style of, Bush since Obama is way more willing to talk and be respectful of other cultures than Bush was. As Obama came to power and became more willing to talk to the reasonable people (key word), the more bin Laden looked silly. At this point, sure he had eluded US capture fora decade, but a lot of his plans against the US were falling through. Which would make this the best case of "what have you done for me lately?" syndrome. Sure, bin Laden talked a great game to Palestinians about how they were being screwed by the Crusader-Jew Alliance, but other than pissing off the US, what had he done for them? They've come to figure this out and are forging a new way forward, notably by recently agreeing to a unity Hamas-Fatah government. Instead of hating the US, people are starting to realize that if THEY make their own lives better, rather than just hating another country and blaming them, their lives will improve. In this way, bin Laden was good for those in power in these dictatorships: he distracted a lot of people from noticing how bad things were in their own countries.
So there have been no real celebrations in the Middle East. No parades, no staging of elaborate funerals and no Stalin-esque attempts at memorials. Sure, there will be vengeance terror attacks, but if we got the right kind of intelligence, those are going to be stopped effectively as well. In some measures, his death didn't mean all that much: there are still plenty of nasty fighters out there who want to destroy America, and just because they are leaderless, it doesn't mean not dangerous. However, they are a hell of a lot less dangerous if they are disorganized and fighting each other. What else is telling is how quiet other countries outside the area are being. Nothing from Castro, nothing from Chavez and nothing from any of America's other enemies. It's more than likely a few factors all combining, but part of that is less hatred for America. Another big part of it is the simple recognition that bin Laden was a bad guy. He was a terrorist of the worst caliber and that's a threat to any government. No official government wants to be associated with him at this point, and no real insurgency movement has sought his help. Yes, there are groups that claim to be insurgent groups who give respect to al-Qaeda and bin Laden, but the real grassroots movements are actively courting as many people as possible from all walks of life. It's more nationalistic in features, but that also means they're trying to build a nation, not destroy another country. If your goal is to build you want respect and help. If you want to destroy, you want fear and terror.
And people are seeing a little temporary terror does nothing to help build.
So it is written, so do I see it.
Of course, the main reason why a lot of Middle Eastern countries haven't been giving much of a reaction to all this is that they are embroiled in conflicts of their own. Tunisia is still trying to form a government. Egypt is doing the same. Libya is in full scale civil war. Syria is too busy using football stadiums for mass arrests in an effort to not be the next country to overthrow its tyrannical leadership. Iran is currently undergoing some problems of their own so they're not supporting anyone either. The only ones who are keeping quiet despite a previous history of speaking out and no civil war brewing is Saudi Arabia. As every country that might have a population that might have supported bin Laden starts to fight for rights instead of religion, they are taking away future potential followers for bin Laden. Sure, he knew how to whip up a good firestorm and he managed to get very disparate groups who normally hate each to actually cooperate under one banner, but he's gone and that's not going to last. Even if he were alive, that alliance was going to start falling apart anyway. Palestinians will eventually just want a land of their own, irrespective of destroying Israel. Syrians will eventually want more rights regardless of the teachings of al-Qaeda on their interpretation of shari'a law. As each group gets more and more nationalized, the harder and harder it is for groups to cut across to hate the "Crusader-Jew Alliance". After all, it's easier to hate the guys in uniforms you recognize day to day fucking you up directly than a convoluted sense of who the enemy is. The US may not have made a whole lot of friends in the area, but that doesn't mean we're actively taking away rights from Egyptians and Syrians.
So the Syrian populace is hating the Syrian government, the Egyptian people are too busy trying to come up with an orderly transition of government and most other countries are on the brink of revolution or or their leaders want no part of this mess. Bin Laden may have been popular in some areas for a small while, but that's o longer the case. For the math types who are reading this, bin Laden's popularity is directly proportional to the dickishness of the American president. It's hard for a lot of the Middle East to hate Obama as much, or in the same style of, Bush since Obama is way more willing to talk and be respectful of other cultures than Bush was. As Obama came to power and became more willing to talk to the reasonable people (key word), the more bin Laden looked silly. At this point, sure he had eluded US capture fora decade, but a lot of his plans against the US were falling through. Which would make this the best case of "what have you done for me lately?" syndrome. Sure, bin Laden talked a great game to Palestinians about how they were being screwed by the Crusader-Jew Alliance, but other than pissing off the US, what had he done for them? They've come to figure this out and are forging a new way forward, notably by recently agreeing to a unity Hamas-Fatah government. Instead of hating the US, people are starting to realize that if THEY make their own lives better, rather than just hating another country and blaming them, their lives will improve. In this way, bin Laden was good for those in power in these dictatorships: he distracted a lot of people from noticing how bad things were in their own countries.
So there have been no real celebrations in the Middle East. No parades, no staging of elaborate funerals and no Stalin-esque attempts at memorials. Sure, there will be vengeance terror attacks, but if we got the right kind of intelligence, those are going to be stopped effectively as well. In some measures, his death didn't mean all that much: there are still plenty of nasty fighters out there who want to destroy America, and just because they are leaderless, it doesn't mean not dangerous. However, they are a hell of a lot less dangerous if they are disorganized and fighting each other. What else is telling is how quiet other countries outside the area are being. Nothing from Castro, nothing from Chavez and nothing from any of America's other enemies. It's more than likely a few factors all combining, but part of that is less hatred for America. Another big part of it is the simple recognition that bin Laden was a bad guy. He was a terrorist of the worst caliber and that's a threat to any government. No official government wants to be associated with him at this point, and no real insurgency movement has sought his help. Yes, there are groups that claim to be insurgent groups who give respect to al-Qaeda and bin Laden, but the real grassroots movements are actively courting as many people as possible from all walks of life. It's more nationalistic in features, but that also means they're trying to build a nation, not destroy another country. If your goal is to build you want respect and help. If you want to destroy, you want fear and terror.
And people are seeing a little temporary terror does nothing to help build.
So it is written, so do I see it.