Setting Point
After seven weeks of campaigning, commercials and more dirt than the Appalachians, Hillary Clinton pulled out an honest to God victory in Pennsylvania. As I go to press (heh), the margin stands at Clinton 54% to Obama 46%, an 8 point lead. Now, this is without a lot of the Philadelphia area reporting in, which is expected to go heavily Obama. So the lead may fall to 5 points, but that's still enough to win. Unfortunately, this is not winner take all, but by proportions, so the delegate count may still not break her way as completely as the votes would indicate, but a win is a win. And that is exactly what she needed right now. Obama closed the lead from 33 points to what looks like 6 in a matter of weeks, a political miracle if ever there was such a thing. But, a victory is a victory is a victory. The problem for Hillary lies not in the fact shes got a victory, but it wasn't enough of one. The delegate count, in terms of difference, only moves slightly in her favor, an edge of about 14 delegates (give or take) out of the possible 158 in the Keystone State. The numbers are still coming in, but Clinton is going to win when she needed to so the donors don't get spooked. Clinton is out of money, a little out of look and was at a chip and a chair, to use a poker term. To borrow a craps term, she has set a new point. And while she didn't roll the hard six (that would have been an instantly declared victory of over 10 points), she did bet right on the under and came out on top. As soon as all the major networks called the primary for her, she sent out an e-mail proclaiming victory and asking for 5 dollars (that's like 30 pence, for the Brits). They're gonna hit the airwaves and electrons tomorrow talking about how much money they just brought in since the win. And onward Clinton's soldiers.
Warring in Pennsylvania with Barack Obama cost her a lot of money. She went in with millions in the bank and now she's about 2 million in the hole. Mark Penn, the disgraced former adviser who made no tactical plans past Super Tuesday, nearly 3 months ago, cost her nearly 4 million dollars. She spent big money doing the big Washington campaign and it hurt her. It hurt her early and it's hurting her now again. She is 2 million in debt after being outspent 4 to 1 by Obama. Obama has 40 million left in the warchest and two states coming up that are far more friendly to him. Pennsylvania was prime Clinton territory. Bill won the state twice, she grew up in Scranton (in addition to her days in Chicago, her time as First Lady of Arkansas, First Lady of the US in DC and now she's the New York woman) being taught to shoot by her grandfather, despite having a long history of supporting every gun control measure she ever put eyes on. This state is the epitome of blue collar, working class traditional values folk. 4 in 10 are Catholic, who tend to go Clinton, most Democrats do not have a college education (who tend to vote Clinton) and make less than 55,000 a year (also one of Clinton's most consistent demographics). This should have been a state that went a lot heavier for Hillary, so Obama coming as close as he did is good. Of course, it was not good enough for a victory for him. Hillary won, and the fight goes on to Indiana and North Carolina.
North Carolina is where Obama has a sizable lead and Indiana is pulling even already, with Obama ahead in some polls. And this is before a lot of the major money gets put in the Hoosier State. Obama is already in the air in Indiana, including the expensive and populous Lake County, the second most populous county in Indiana on the border of Chicago. Clinton and Obama are both already in Indiana, going on the stump in Terre Haute, Marion, French Lick (no shit, town called that), South Bend (home of Notre Dame and is way up north), North Vernon (near Kentucky) and Indianapolis (great Nap City). But, with 2 million in debt, it's going to be hard to put up staff, pay for staff, put out flyers and do the ever important commercials. She'll get some money out of tonight's win, but she'll face another problem like she had in Pennsylvania. Obama will now outspend her 7 or 8 to 1 now since it means that much more. If he pulls out a big win there over here, it will swing more delegates his way. If she wins, it will cut into his lead, but she'd need to win by at least 80% in all the next contests to seriously match his lead. Note, this is before all the superdelegates get involved. There are about 300 of them unaccounted for so far.
That might be the most important part of all of this, this victory could staunch the stream of superdelegates coming out for Obama. They have all said time and again they do not want to decide this thing in the face of the popular vote. Except for the Supreme Court, who would want to do that. This victory will make the superdelegates pause, as they consider the cold hard fact that despite outspending her by huge margins, Obama STILL could not defeat Hillary Clinton. Yes, he cut into her lead massively, but there are no points for second place in politics. Ask how John Kerry and John Edwards did this time around. So, superdelelgates have to weigh even more carefully now if they want to support Hillary or Barack and which one will win. Many of the superdelegates are in tight elections themselves, and so they don't want to end up supporting the wrong horse, in both going against whom their constituents supported and who ends up winning. After all, it can be forgiven if a politician supports the candidate their voters support; that's just smart election year politics. But if it turns out the candidate the superdelegate supported loses AND is not the eventual winner, then that superdelegate is gonna have enemies on both sides of the political line. Voters who may, in a fit of pique, vote out that superdelegate OR, if they do end up getting elected, it means it's possible they have a new enemy behind the big desk in the Oval Office. Or, at best, a new opponent in the Senate.
So, as the tallies come in coming at almost 10% now, that's a better margin of victory for her. That's solid and decisive and will make all the doubters rethink things, as well as making Obama look bad for not being able to do better. Even his staunchest supporters have to be scared. Clinton not only won, but bloodied the hell out of him in the process. Connecting him to "anti-American" pastors, Weather Underground people (who had really long since been cleared) and anything else negative she can hit him with. Her classic "I win by making you worst" style of fighting. So Obama looks a lot worse, her negatives have gone up since she's gone so negative on him. But, it kept her alive in PA to fight out the rest of the primary season. Of course, McCain will have to do nothing but replay ads already produced to smear the candidate, who ever wins. Right now, the Democratic party is bitterly divided between the Clinton supporters and Obama supporters, with each in large numbers claiming they won't support the other candidate and may vote for McCain. While the majority of that is talk and most people will eventually come around when they realize the choices are other Democrat, McCain or stay the hell home (with McCain winning by default).
In other words, same old story of Republicans winning while Democrats tear each other apart.
So it is written, so do I see it.
PS I took (one of) my sisters-in-practice's advice and discovered the lj cut.
Warring in Pennsylvania with Barack Obama cost her a lot of money. She went in with millions in the bank and now she's about 2 million in the hole. Mark Penn, the disgraced former adviser who made no tactical plans past Super Tuesday, nearly 3 months ago, cost her nearly 4 million dollars. She spent big money doing the big Washington campaign and it hurt her. It hurt her early and it's hurting her now again. She is 2 million in debt after being outspent 4 to 1 by Obama. Obama has 40 million left in the warchest and two states coming up that are far more friendly to him. Pennsylvania was prime Clinton territory. Bill won the state twice, she grew up in Scranton (in addition to her days in Chicago, her time as First Lady of Arkansas, First Lady of the US in DC and now she's the New York woman) being taught to shoot by her grandfather, despite having a long history of supporting every gun control measure she ever put eyes on. This state is the epitome of blue collar, working class traditional values folk. 4 in 10 are Catholic, who tend to go Clinton, most Democrats do not have a college education (who tend to vote Clinton) and make less than 55,000 a year (also one of Clinton's most consistent demographics). This should have been a state that went a lot heavier for Hillary, so Obama coming as close as he did is good. Of course, it was not good enough for a victory for him. Hillary won, and the fight goes on to Indiana and North Carolina.
North Carolina is where Obama has a sizable lead and Indiana is pulling even already, with Obama ahead in some polls. And this is before a lot of the major money gets put in the Hoosier State. Obama is already in the air in Indiana, including the expensive and populous Lake County, the second most populous county in Indiana on the border of Chicago. Clinton and Obama are both already in Indiana, going on the stump in Terre Haute, Marion, French Lick (no shit, town called that), South Bend (home of Notre Dame and is way up north), North Vernon (near Kentucky) and Indianapolis (great Nap City). But, with 2 million in debt, it's going to be hard to put up staff, pay for staff, put out flyers and do the ever important commercials. She'll get some money out of tonight's win, but she'll face another problem like she had in Pennsylvania. Obama will now outspend her 7 or 8 to 1 now since it means that much more. If he pulls out a big win there over here, it will swing more delegates his way. If she wins, it will cut into his lead, but she'd need to win by at least 80% in all the next contests to seriously match his lead. Note, this is before all the superdelegates get involved. There are about 300 of them unaccounted for so far.
That might be the most important part of all of this, this victory could staunch the stream of superdelegates coming out for Obama. They have all said time and again they do not want to decide this thing in the face of the popular vote. Except for the Supreme Court, who would want to do that. This victory will make the superdelegates pause, as they consider the cold hard fact that despite outspending her by huge margins, Obama STILL could not defeat Hillary Clinton. Yes, he cut into her lead massively, but there are no points for second place in politics. Ask how John Kerry and John Edwards did this time around. So, superdelelgates have to weigh even more carefully now if they want to support Hillary or Barack and which one will win. Many of the superdelegates are in tight elections themselves, and so they don't want to end up supporting the wrong horse, in both going against whom their constituents supported and who ends up winning. After all, it can be forgiven if a politician supports the candidate their voters support; that's just smart election year politics. But if it turns out the candidate the superdelegate supported loses AND is not the eventual winner, then that superdelegate is gonna have enemies on both sides of the political line. Voters who may, in a fit of pique, vote out that superdelegate OR, if they do end up getting elected, it means it's possible they have a new enemy behind the big desk in the Oval Office. Or, at best, a new opponent in the Senate.
So, as the tallies come in coming at almost 10% now, that's a better margin of victory for her. That's solid and decisive and will make all the doubters rethink things, as well as making Obama look bad for not being able to do better. Even his staunchest supporters have to be scared. Clinton not only won, but bloodied the hell out of him in the process. Connecting him to "anti-American" pastors, Weather Underground people (who had really long since been cleared) and anything else negative she can hit him with. Her classic "I win by making you worst" style of fighting. So Obama looks a lot worse, her negatives have gone up since she's gone so negative on him. But, it kept her alive in PA to fight out the rest of the primary season. Of course, McCain will have to do nothing but replay ads already produced to smear the candidate, who ever wins. Right now, the Democratic party is bitterly divided between the Clinton supporters and Obama supporters, with each in large numbers claiming they won't support the other candidate and may vote for McCain. While the majority of that is talk and most people will eventually come around when they realize the choices are other Democrat, McCain or stay the hell home (with McCain winning by default).
In other words, same old story of Republicans winning while Democrats tear each other apart.
So it is written, so do I see it.
PS I took (one of) my sisters-in-practice's advice and discovered the lj cut.