Yet Another Showdown
Sorry, I've been away for a while, been busy and running around and doing the political junkie thing we've all come to know and love. Tomorrow is the ever famous and long awaited Pennsylvania primary. Iowa, New Hampshire, Super Tuesday, and Texas are all done. Right now, Obama is ahead on every count known to mankind, but only one matters, delegates. The Clinton campaign has claimed that popular vote, number of primary elections versus caucuses and even what states could matter in the general election in the electoral college. But right now, if Obama loses Pennsylvania, wins North Carolina, loses Indiana, and even loses the rest, Obama is still ahead in delegates, and is only about 100 short of nomination. And considering there are over 300 unaccounted for superdelegates, they could go 2 to 1 for Clinton and he would still win. Of course, we still have Pennsylvania to go through and all those votes to be counted and see how the delegates there get divided up by voters there. Clinton's ahead, but the lead is slipping fast; most reputable polls put her in the lead by only the margin of error. Hundreds of thousands of voters changed their registration from anything else to Democrat just to vote in this election. The battle lines between the Philadelphia suburbs, Pittsburgh's inner cities, State College, Scranton, Chambersburg and 100 other places are drawn and the voters do battle tomorrow.
Clinton, in what can only be called irony of ironies, has now become the champion of the working class, blue collar workers AND current governor Ed Rendell. Obama, also in irony, has become the favorite of the suburban, educated liberals and moderates AND Democratic senator Bob Casey. See, the irony is this: Rendell has seen his largest support from suburban educated liberals and Casey's strongest support has always been from blue collar Democrats. The pro-life, opposing gun control and gay marriage Senator supporting one of the most liberal senators running, where the more classically liberal governor is supporting a candidate who voted for the war in Iraq and would irradiate Iran for attacking a a country that was not the US. To say that nothing in this specific primary is like it had been, is an understatement of the century. By most conventional wisdom, this primary season should have been over by now and this whole should not matter, yet here we are, unable to make heads or tails of it all.
James Carville once famous described Pennsylvania as Philadelphia in the east, Pittsbrugh in the west and Alabama in the middle. This statement shows both his understanding (and lack thereof) of local politics and his contempt for the average voter. Of course, he was completely wrong, just incomplete. For example, John Murtha's 12th Congressional district is in the middle of "Alabama" of the state, yet he's on his 18th term as a Democrat; nor is he expected to face real competition any time soon, despite his fiery liberal disposition. Now those same voters Carville denigrated are now his candidate's best hope. Hillary has been courting gun-toting, beer drinking conservative Democrats to win the state, which any candidate should. But what makes this printworthy is how bitterly she once fought against them. She's always been against lots of gun ownership, been in favor of sin taxes that raised taxes on beer and cigarettes and generally not the friend of most working class interests. But now, Hillary is drinking beer and shots in a bar (it should be noted, she was drinking Crown Royal, a Canadian whiskey. Bad choice as it is both a reminder of NAFTA and not fucking cheap. She'd have been better off with Jack Daniels or Jamesons) and trying to convince everyone she's just another working class girl compared to Obama's elitism. Of course, this is still predicated on the theory that voters can be easily divided up.
And this election is teaching us that this is just not so. Before it was the male vote or female vote, then it was Catholic or religious vote, then it was Latino or white vote, and now it's being broken down to bowling fans and hunters. With additional talks of single, middle income female voters being "the key for the Keystone state". The truth is, the only reason people are dividing up voters like this is because no one can ever really tell how Pennsylvania is going to vote. Both candidates, Democratic side, are classically Pennsylvania in different ways. Pennsylvania is a swing state as they come (really, only Ohio and Missouri are more likely to flip loyalty election to election, but not by much) and the voters there will make up their own minds. And all that was in place BEFORE hundreds of thousands wanted to just vote in this election, and most of them for Obama. Clinton's got a lot of solid support and a lot of the undecideds would tend to go Clinton's way based on previous demographics. So, thus, who in the fuck knows how it's gonna go?
No one knows, but that's not gonna stop anyone from talking about it constantly.
So it is written, so do I see it.
Clinton, in what can only be called irony of ironies, has now become the champion of the working class, blue collar workers AND current governor Ed Rendell. Obama, also in irony, has become the favorite of the suburban, educated liberals and moderates AND Democratic senator Bob Casey. See, the irony is this: Rendell has seen his largest support from suburban educated liberals and Casey's strongest support has always been from blue collar Democrats. The pro-life, opposing gun control and gay marriage Senator supporting one of the most liberal senators running, where the more classically liberal governor is supporting a candidate who voted for the war in Iraq and would irradiate Iran for attacking a a country that was not the US. To say that nothing in this specific primary is like it had been, is an understatement of the century. By most conventional wisdom, this primary season should have been over by now and this whole should not matter, yet here we are, unable to make heads or tails of it all.
James Carville once famous described Pennsylvania as Philadelphia in the east, Pittsbrugh in the west and Alabama in the middle. This statement shows both his understanding (and lack thereof) of local politics and his contempt for the average voter. Of course, he was completely wrong, just incomplete. For example, John Murtha's 12th Congressional district is in the middle of "Alabama" of the state, yet he's on his 18th term as a Democrat; nor is he expected to face real competition any time soon, despite his fiery liberal disposition. Now those same voters Carville denigrated are now his candidate's best hope. Hillary has been courting gun-toting, beer drinking conservative Democrats to win the state, which any candidate should. But what makes this printworthy is how bitterly she once fought against them. She's always been against lots of gun ownership, been in favor of sin taxes that raised taxes on beer and cigarettes and generally not the friend of most working class interests. But now, Hillary is drinking beer and shots in a bar (it should be noted, she was drinking Crown Royal, a Canadian whiskey. Bad choice as it is both a reminder of NAFTA and not fucking cheap. She'd have been better off with Jack Daniels or Jamesons) and trying to convince everyone she's just another working class girl compared to Obama's elitism. Of course, this is still predicated on the theory that voters can be easily divided up.
And this election is teaching us that this is just not so. Before it was the male vote or female vote, then it was Catholic or religious vote, then it was Latino or white vote, and now it's being broken down to bowling fans and hunters. With additional talks of single, middle income female voters being "the key for the Keystone state". The truth is, the only reason people are dividing up voters like this is because no one can ever really tell how Pennsylvania is going to vote. Both candidates, Democratic side, are classically Pennsylvania in different ways. Pennsylvania is a swing state as they come (really, only Ohio and Missouri are more likely to flip loyalty election to election, but not by much) and the voters there will make up their own minds. And all that was in place BEFORE hundreds of thousands wanted to just vote in this election, and most of them for Obama. Clinton's got a lot of solid support and a lot of the undecideds would tend to go Clinton's way based on previous demographics. So, thus, who in the fuck knows how it's gonna go?
No one knows, but that's not gonna stop anyone from talking about it constantly.
So it is written, so do I see it.