A wild social democrat appears!
Hello, peoples.
In case you didn't know, we are having a federal election tonight here in Canadia. It's exciting! We have a chance to be rid of Our Robot Overlord, blacken the eye of his party of sketchballs and, most importantly, elect an historic proportion of New Democratic Party MPs.
For those not familiar with a parliamentary system, or just Canada's in particular, here are some learnings: There are 308 federal electoral districts in Canada, called ridings. In each riding, any registered political party can nominate and register a candidate for the local riding election (you can also register as an Independant... I'm not sure how that works. Petition?). The residents of said riding then vote amongst the local candidates, and the one with the most votes wins all and gets to be that region's Member of Parliament.
We have five parties with an appreciable following who run candidates in most if not all ridings (with the exception of the BQ who are only in Quebec):
Conservative Party: incumbent party, right to very right of centre (Leader: Stephen Harper)
Liberal Party: centre-left (Michael Ignatieff)
New Democratic Party: left, union voting base (American transl. OMGSOCIALISTS) (Jack Layton)
Green Party: left, environmentalist (Elizabeth May)
Bloc Quebecois: separatist, left-leaning but also anti-immigrant. (Gilles Duceppe)
There are a whack of other parties, who range from special special interest to joke party, but they don't amount to much. But you can see why we have a problem. The left, she is split.
The party that has the most winning candidates, and thus the most seats of the 308 in the House of Commons, is asked by the Governor General (Queen's proxy) to form the government. The Leader of said party chooses from amongst their elected MPs who will be the Cabinet (federal ministers) and recommends them to the GG. The GG then appoints the cabinet of ministers, and the Party Leader becomes the boss of the ministers, or Prime Minister. (The Party Leader, I should note, is elected by the party membership i.e. card-carriers.)
This is a strange system where we have one vote to answer two questions (who we want as our local rep, and which party/leader we'd like to form the government) and is thus not particularly subject to the actual voting percentages. (It's can also be difficult: sometimes the party you like most is running a weaksauce candidate in your riding, or conversely the best prospective MP is not a member of your first choice of party.) It's a winner-takes-all local election, and only seats matter in the House. (See the 2008 election: the Green Party received about 1 million votes nationally. The Bloc Quebecois had 1.4 million votes, only in Quebec, and took 47 seats to the Greens' 0. Awesome, no?) So, this shafts both the smaller parties AND the urban electorate, but that's a rant for another time.
In this election, a crazy thing has happened. We are trying (oh we are trying) to punt the lying liars who lie, the Harper Conservatives. They wish nothing more than to be like the U.S. Republicans, and if there's anything Canadians don't like, it's people trying to make us like Americans. The Liberals, who have led Parliament many times in the past (for great justice, I might add; Paul Martin is the reason we have weathered this recession so well) have taken a nose-dive. It's a combination of a variety of things -- scandals from their last government, an quiet campaign, and, most importantly, a leader whose image with the electorate was formed for him by the Harper Conservatives' attack ads. Michael Ignatieff returned to Canada after a long period of teaching at such places as Cambridge and Harvard to lead the Liberals, and Harper would have us believe that makes Mike a bad Canadian. Me, I have no beef with a guy who expatriated to be a Harvard professor, but what do I know. Point is, vast swathes of this country don't like Iggy, and can't quite tell you why (by all reports he's lovely in person, and actually takes questions for all comers, unlike Harper.)
Enter Jack Layton, longtime leader of the New Democrats, who are historically the Fourth Party in the House. The shit-disturbers in Parliament who will never form the government. Or man Jack has capitalized HUGELY on the weakness of the Liberals, the out-dated message of the Bloc, and over 60% of the country's unwillingness to vote for President Harper. The fourth-place, social democrat party is polling within the margin of error against the Conservatives. Check out this graph. I mean, holy crap, y'all, look at the slope on that orange line.
Couple that with what might be a much higher voter turnout than last time, especially among young voters (Google "vote mob"), well, who even knows what might happen tonight.
But, like I said, percentages don't always turn into ridings. And because Alberta and large tracts of Ontario really suck, the Conservatives are probably going to get another minority. The Liberal/NDP split vote might also let them creep up the middle into far more seats than they deserve.
So! I'm kind of afraid! But also excited. If the NDP win just a shit-ton of seats, they get to be Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition in a minority Parliament (likely) and maybe can team up with the benighted Liberals to govern a a coalition (less likely). A coalition, which no matter what Harper tells you, is both legal and welcome after five years of Conservative bullshit. They might, MIGHT, even be in reach of their own minority (unlikely, but it's nice to dream.)
Cross you fingers, folks! *glues self to CBC News*
ETA: A 167 seat majority with 40% of the popular vote, and now we are stuck with Lord Sweatervest until 2015. Barf. On the other hand, HOLY CRAP OVER A HUNDRED NDP SEATS. O_O Ding-dong the Bloc is dead. ALSO, holy crap, Elizabeth May is leading her riding.
In case you didn't know, we are having a federal election tonight here in Canadia. It's exciting! We have a chance to be rid of Our Robot Overlord, blacken the eye of his party of sketchballs and, most importantly, elect an historic proportion of New Democratic Party MPs.
For those not familiar with a parliamentary system, or just Canada's in particular, here are some learnings: There are 308 federal electoral districts in Canada, called ridings. In each riding, any registered political party can nominate and register a candidate for the local riding election (you can also register as an Independant... I'm not sure how that works. Petition?). The residents of said riding then vote amongst the local candidates, and the one with the most votes wins all and gets to be that region's Member of Parliament.
We have five parties with an appreciable following who run candidates in most if not all ridings (with the exception of the BQ who are only in Quebec):
Conservative Party: incumbent party, right to very right of centre (Leader: Stephen Harper)
Liberal Party: centre-left (Michael Ignatieff)
New Democratic Party: left, union voting base (American transl. OMGSOCIALISTS) (Jack Layton)
Green Party: left, environmentalist (Elizabeth May)
Bloc Quebecois: separatist, left-leaning but also anti-immigrant. (Gilles Duceppe)
There are a whack of other parties, who range from special special interest to joke party, but they don't amount to much. But you can see why we have a problem. The left, she is split.
The party that has the most winning candidates, and thus the most seats of the 308 in the House of Commons, is asked by the Governor General (Queen's proxy) to form the government. The Leader of said party chooses from amongst their elected MPs who will be the Cabinet (federal ministers) and recommends them to the GG. The GG then appoints the cabinet of ministers, and the Party Leader becomes the boss of the ministers, or Prime Minister. (The Party Leader, I should note, is elected by the party membership i.e. card-carriers.)
This is a strange system where we have one vote to answer two questions (who we want as our local rep, and which party/leader we'd like to form the government) and is thus not particularly subject to the actual voting percentages. (It's can also be difficult: sometimes the party you like most is running a weaksauce candidate in your riding, or conversely the best prospective MP is not a member of your first choice of party.) It's a winner-takes-all local election, and only seats matter in the House. (See the 2008 election: the Green Party received about 1 million votes nationally. The Bloc Quebecois had 1.4 million votes, only in Quebec, and took 47 seats to the Greens' 0. Awesome, no?) So, this shafts both the smaller parties AND the urban electorate, but that's a rant for another time.
In this election, a crazy thing has happened. We are trying (oh we are trying) to punt the lying liars who lie, the Harper Conservatives. They wish nothing more than to be like the U.S. Republicans, and if there's anything Canadians don't like, it's people trying to make us like Americans. The Liberals, who have led Parliament many times in the past (for great justice, I might add; Paul Martin is the reason we have weathered this recession so well) have taken a nose-dive. It's a combination of a variety of things -- scandals from their last government, an quiet campaign, and, most importantly, a leader whose image with the electorate was formed for him by the Harper Conservatives' attack ads. Michael Ignatieff returned to Canada after a long period of teaching at such places as Cambridge and Harvard to lead the Liberals, and Harper would have us believe that makes Mike a bad Canadian. Me, I have no beef with a guy who expatriated to be a Harvard professor, but what do I know. Point is, vast swathes of this country don't like Iggy, and can't quite tell you why (by all reports he's lovely in person, and actually takes questions for all comers, unlike Harper.)
Enter Jack Layton, longtime leader of the New Democrats, who are historically the Fourth Party in the House. The shit-disturbers in Parliament who will never form the government. Or man Jack has capitalized HUGELY on the weakness of the Liberals, the out-dated message of the Bloc, and over 60% of the country's unwillingness to vote for President Harper. The fourth-place, social democrat party is polling within the margin of error against the Conservatives. Check out this graph. I mean, holy crap, y'all, look at the slope on that orange line.
Couple that with what might be a much higher voter turnout than last time, especially among young voters (Google "vote mob"), well, who even knows what might happen tonight.
But, like I said, percentages don't always turn into ridings. And because Alberta and large tracts of Ontario really suck, the Conservatives are probably going to get another minority. The Liberal/NDP split vote might also let them creep up the middle into far more seats than they deserve.
So! I'm kind of afraid! But also excited. If the NDP win just a shit-ton of seats, they get to be Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition in a minority Parliament (likely) and maybe can team up with the benighted Liberals to govern a a coalition (less likely). A coalition, which no matter what Harper tells you, is both legal and welcome after five years of Conservative bullshit. They might, MIGHT, even be in reach of their own minority (unlikely, but it's nice to dream.)
Cross you fingers, folks! *glues self to CBC News*
ETA: A 167 seat majority with 40% of the popular vote, and now we are stuck with Lord Sweatervest until 2015. Barf. On the other hand, HOLY CRAP OVER A HUNDRED NDP SEATS. O_O Ding-dong the Bloc is dead. ALSO, holy crap, Elizabeth May is leading her riding.