on DOMA
Without wading into the larger, heated Obama vs gays fight (to the death!), a thought about repealing DOMA. That thought being: it ain't going to happen anytime soon.
Look, I want Obama to make a move on repealing DOMA as much as the next gay. I want him to throw his full weight behind it and use his bully pulpit to tell the American people why it's such a hideous, destructive law. And regardless of the current dust up, I still believe that he will.
But when he does, I have about zero hope a repeal will actually happen, because I don't see how you get it through Congress. Remember, it was passed with huge margins in both chambers: 85-14 in the Senate and 342-67 in the House. Yes, that was 13 years ago and times have changed. But have they changed that much? We weren't able to get the Senate to even take up the much lower hanging fruit of ENDA as recently as two years ago. Chances for ENDA look much better now since we've picked up a few more seats in both chambers, and I predict it'll get through this year or next, but only by a squeaker. And that's on an issue - workplace protections - that enjoys broad support in the electorate at large. Support for gay marriage is growing nationally, but it's still a minority position, which means there's not going to be a lot of pressure on our congress critters, especially those from conservative parts of the country, to change their votes anytime soon. Maybe you can get it through the House, maybe, but it's sure to be filibustered in the Senate, and I don't see how we get 60 votes to stop a filibuster. For one, there are 13 Democrats who voted for the act still in the Senate - Baucus, Bingaman, Byrd, Conrad, Dodd, Dorgan, Harkin, Kohl, Leahy, Levin, Lieberman, Murray, Reid. Maybe a couple would change their vote - Dodd and Leahy, for example, are both from states that have gay marriage now. But I don't imagine most of them will. There are new conservative Dems like Bayh and Nelson who I can't imagine would vote with us on this issue. And we all know where the Republicans stand. Even the moderate Snowe voted for DOMA. I just don't see the path to victory - we don't have the votes. And this isn't something the President can do on his own.
Having said that, do I want my president to show leadership and at least give it a push? Yes. Symbolically it will mean a lot. I think of the gay youth out there seeing their president making the case for a repeal of DOMA, and what a positive effect that would have, and that's something I want very much. But substantively, I think we're going to be stuck with DOMA for a long time to come.
I actually do have a larger point, but my lunch break has run long so it'll have to wait for another time.
Look, I want Obama to make a move on repealing DOMA as much as the next gay. I want him to throw his full weight behind it and use his bully pulpit to tell the American people why it's such a hideous, destructive law. And regardless of the current dust up, I still believe that he will.
But when he does, I have about zero hope a repeal will actually happen, because I don't see how you get it through Congress. Remember, it was passed with huge margins in both chambers: 85-14 in the Senate and 342-67 in the House. Yes, that was 13 years ago and times have changed. But have they changed that much? We weren't able to get the Senate to even take up the much lower hanging fruit of ENDA as recently as two years ago. Chances for ENDA look much better now since we've picked up a few more seats in both chambers, and I predict it'll get through this year or next, but only by a squeaker. And that's on an issue - workplace protections - that enjoys broad support in the electorate at large. Support for gay marriage is growing nationally, but it's still a minority position, which means there's not going to be a lot of pressure on our congress critters, especially those from conservative parts of the country, to change their votes anytime soon. Maybe you can get it through the House, maybe, but it's sure to be filibustered in the Senate, and I don't see how we get 60 votes to stop a filibuster. For one, there are 13 Democrats who voted for the act still in the Senate - Baucus, Bingaman, Byrd, Conrad, Dodd, Dorgan, Harkin, Kohl, Leahy, Levin, Lieberman, Murray, Reid. Maybe a couple would change their vote - Dodd and Leahy, for example, are both from states that have gay marriage now. But I don't imagine most of them will. There are new conservative Dems like Bayh and Nelson who I can't imagine would vote with us on this issue. And we all know where the Republicans stand. Even the moderate Snowe voted for DOMA. I just don't see the path to victory - we don't have the votes. And this isn't something the President can do on his own.
Having said that, do I want my president to show leadership and at least give it a push? Yes. Symbolically it will mean a lot. I think of the gay youth out there seeing their president making the case for a repeal of DOMA, and what a positive effect that would have, and that's something I want very much. But substantively, I think we're going to be stuck with DOMA for a long time to come.
I actually do have a larger point, but my lunch break has run long so it'll have to wait for another time.