won't decide, but he won't debate
Okay guys, it's zero hour, nine a.m. No, wait, something about a second fiddle and being first-born and -- wait, that's wrong too. ANYWAY. The Oscars are upon us. So, in keeping with tradition and other stupid shit I've done in the past, here are my predictions.
Disclaimer: I am not an expert in any way, shape or form. If you choose to use my predictions in your office pool or whatever and you don't win, you are not allowed to sue me.
Again, we'll start with the minor awards.
Best Visual Effects
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1
Hereafter
Inception -- Alaina's Pick
Iron Man 2
Alice in Wonderland was filmed in 3-D and was visually stunning. I'm not sure about Hereafter, I didn't see it. (Wow, I've seen four out of five of these guys.) I'm going to lean towards Inception on this, because it's going to get shut out of the bigger awards later.
Best Sound Mixing
Inception
The King's Speech
Salt
The Social Network -- Alaina's Pick
True Grit
If I remember correctly, Sound Mixing is how well all the sounds and stuff worked together; Sound Editing is creating new sounds. I'd like to give this one to Inception, but I have a feeling They're going to award The Social Network for this due to all of the clickety-clack sounds the keyboards made.
Best Sound Editing
Inception -- Alaina's Pick
Toy Story 3
Tron: Legacy
True Grit
Unstoppable
And here I'll reward Inception again.
Best Original Song
"Coming Home," Tom Douglas, Troy Verges and Hillary Lindsay, Country Strong
"I See the Light," Alan Menken and Glenn Slater, Tangled
"If I Rise," A.R. Rahman, Dido and Rollo Armstrong, 127 Hours
"We Belong Together," Randy Newman, Toy Story 3 -- Alaina's Pick
Oh God, do we have to listen to Gwyneth Paltrow sing again? *sigh* Uh, I think I'm going to give this to Randy Newman and Toy Story 3, because it's the sentimental choice and I saw 127 Hours but don't recall that song. (Although I can't wait for the performance by Florence + The Machine tonight -- less the Machine, I think.)
Best Original Score
John Powell, How to Train Your Dragon
Hans Zimmer, Inception
Alexandre Desplat, The King's Speech
A.R. Rahman, 127 Hours
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, The Social Network -- Alaina's Pick
I want Trent Reznor to win this. The score to Inception was very memorable (don't lie, those of us who've seen it -- we'll always hear those weird trombone blasts and know what movie they're from), but ... it's Trent Reznor! It's Nine Inch Nails! Come on! When else is he going to get an Oscar?
Best Makeup
Barney's Version
The Way Back
The Wolfman -- Alaina's Pick
It's THE WOLFMAN.
Best Costume Design
Alice in Wonderland -- Alaina's Pick
I Am Love
The King's Speech
The Tempest
True Grit
Oh crap ... there's ... there aren't any hoop skirts! How can I play the Hoop Skirt Rule when there aren't any hoop skirts?! Uh, Alice in Wonderland had some floofy skirts, right? RIGHT?
Best Art Direction
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1
Inception -- Alaina's Pick
The King's Speech
True Grit
I had to look this up last year because I always get confused between Art Direction and Cinematography. Apparently, Art Direction = Set Direction, while Cinematography = Lighting & Composition. So if I look at it through those lenses (heh), I'm going to give Art Direction to Inception Fake worlds, people! (They'll give it to Harry Potter next year.)
Best Cinematography
Black Swan
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network
True Grit -- Alaina's Pick
And this will go to True Grit, because it's going to get shut out of the other statuette races, and also, it's a very visually pretty movie.
Best Editing
Black Swan
The Fighter -- Alaina's Pick
The King's Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network
Here's the thing: this category could decide the whole shebang. Historically, a movie can't win Best Picture without first winning Best Editing. Of course, there are exceptions: apparently "Roderick Jaynes" did not win Best Editing for No Country for Old Men, but probably because the Academy knew "Roderick Jaynes" is not a real person. But less that exception, every year I've been doing this Running Commentary thing, Best Picture has always gone to the one that won Best Editing.
I'll get back to why this category could determine my entire night later. But looking at the editing of these films and how well that editing helped to tell the story, I'm going to have to go with ... jeez, it's probably between The Fighter and The Social Network. And my very hungry gut is telling me to go with The Fighter because it was such a tightly told story with a lot of quick cuts that The Social Network just cannot claim.
Best Foreign Language Film
Biutiful, Mexico -- Alaina's Pick
Dogtooth, Greece
In a Better World, Denmark
Incendies, Canada
Outside the Law (Hors-la-loi), Algeria
Guys -- Biutiful stars Javier Bardem and had a second Oscar nomination. It won something at the Cannes Film Festival. This will win this category.
And here's where I actually started making an effort to watch every movie.
Best Animated Feature
How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3 -- Alaina's Pick
I swear, they should just rename this the Pixar Award.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Danny Boyle & Simon Beaufoy, 127 Hours
Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network -- Alaina's Pick
Michael Arndt; John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton, and Lee Unkrich, Toy Story 3
Joel Coen & Ethan Coen, True Grit
Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini, Winter's Bone
The Social Network will win here -- it won't win Best Picture (I maintain this!), but they'll give recognition to adapting a book about a bratty billionaire that everyone hated. Although I'm going to hate hearing him call himself Oscar Winner Aaron Sorkin from now to eternity.
Best Original Screenplay
Mike Leigh, Another Year
Scott Silver and Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson, and Keith Dorrington, The Fighter
Christopher Nolan, Inception
Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg, The Kids Are All Right
David Seidler, The King's Speech -- Alaina's Pick
I would love to see The Fighter win here, but it's going to go to The King's Speech. From the inspiring message it delivers to the story that Colin Firth told on The Daily Show about how the Queen Mum did not want the movie made while she was living, it's a cute story. And the Academy likes to reward cute stories with prizes.
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Melissa Leo, The Fighter -- Alaina's Pick
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom
Melissa Leo is the odds-on favorite for her brash, almost unsympathetic role in The Fighter. Now, having said that? If either Helena Bonham Carter or Hailee Steinfeld wins, I'm totally going to jump for joy. Not that I don't like Melissa Leo or her role - I do, and I did. I just liked Helena Bonham Carter and Hailee Steinfeld's characters better.
Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, The Fighter -- Alaina's Pick
John Hawkes, Winter's Bone
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
He had a better northeastern accent than me in this movie, and I'm from two hours north of Boston. He's from Wales. Who else is going to take this home, Mark Ruffalo? I don't friggin' think so.
Best Actress
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman, Black Swan -- Alaina's Pick
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine
Dear Annette Bening: Maybe next time, don't be so shrewish and harpy-resembling. Love, Alaina's eardrums. But seriously, Natalie Portman did a lot of acting in her eyes -- her crazy eyes, to be specific. You could tell that her character had something ... off about her from the start, and Annette Bening's acting doesn't come close, in my opinion. Having said that, I also really liked Michelle William's performance in Blue Valentine. I don't think she's going to win, by any means, but I thought she was very solid.
Best Actor
Javier Bardem, Biutiful
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King's Speech -- Alaina's Pick
James Franco, 127 Hours
Oh, Colin Firth. You're so pretty and extremely talented and self-effacing. I can't wait for your speech.
Best Director
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
David O. Russell, The Fighter
Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
David Fincher, The Social Network -- Alaina's Pick
Joel Coen & Ethan Coen, True Grit
Best Picture
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech -- Alaina's Pick
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone
Wait, Alaina, why aren't you explaining your choices for Best Picture and Best Director? Well, here's the thing. This afternoon, Brad and myself made a Gentlemanly Wager, and a movie ticket is riding on the outcome. He is convinced that The Social Network will win both Best Picture and Best Director. I agree that The Social Network will take home Best Director for David Fincher, because he's overdue for recognition. But, I maintain that The King's Speech will win Best Picture because it's a better picture than The Social Network. Brad's convinced that the awards are never split. I brought up Crash and Brokeback Mountain. He scoffed. I started yelling, and then Hugh interceded and made us bet rather than have us reenact The Fighter on the sales floor.
In part, this is why Best Editing is such an important category to me this year. If The Social Network wins Best Editing and Best Director, it could very well go on for Best Picture. But my gut is telling me that The King's Speech was the Best Picture of the year, and I should know: I'VE SEEN THEM ALL.
So. Brad has promised to call me at 11:57 tonight when all is said and done (or around 10:30, if the show stays on time, which it won't). Keep your fingers crossed that I'm right and the awards split; otherwise, he'll be insufferable for the next two weeks.
Tune in later tonight after the formatting is taken care of for the Seventh Annual Running Commentary to the Academy Awards.
Disclaimer: I am not an expert in any way, shape or form. If you choose to use my predictions in your office pool or whatever and you don't win, you are not allowed to sue me.
Again, we'll start with the minor awards.
Best Visual Effects
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1
Hereafter
Inception -- Alaina's Pick
Iron Man 2
Alice in Wonderland was filmed in 3-D and was visually stunning. I'm not sure about Hereafter, I didn't see it. (Wow, I've seen four out of five of these guys.) I'm going to lean towards Inception on this, because it's going to get shut out of the bigger awards later.
Best Sound Mixing
Inception
The King's Speech
Salt
The Social Network -- Alaina's Pick
True Grit
If I remember correctly, Sound Mixing is how well all the sounds and stuff worked together; Sound Editing is creating new sounds. I'd like to give this one to Inception, but I have a feeling They're going to award The Social Network for this due to all of the clickety-clack sounds the keyboards made.
Best Sound Editing
Inception -- Alaina's Pick
Toy Story 3
Tron: Legacy
True Grit
Unstoppable
And here I'll reward Inception again.
Best Original Song
"Coming Home," Tom Douglas, Troy Verges and Hillary Lindsay, Country Strong
"I See the Light," Alan Menken and Glenn Slater, Tangled
"If I Rise," A.R. Rahman, Dido and Rollo Armstrong, 127 Hours
"We Belong Together," Randy Newman, Toy Story 3 -- Alaina's Pick
Oh God, do we have to listen to Gwyneth Paltrow sing again? *sigh* Uh, I think I'm going to give this to Randy Newman and Toy Story 3, because it's the sentimental choice and I saw 127 Hours but don't recall that song. (Although I can't wait for the performance by Florence + The Machine tonight -- less the Machine, I think.)
Best Original Score
John Powell, How to Train Your Dragon
Hans Zimmer, Inception
Alexandre Desplat, The King's Speech
A.R. Rahman, 127 Hours
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, The Social Network -- Alaina's Pick
I want Trent Reznor to win this. The score to Inception was very memorable (don't lie, those of us who've seen it -- we'll always hear those weird trombone blasts and know what movie they're from), but ... it's Trent Reznor! It's Nine Inch Nails! Come on! When else is he going to get an Oscar?
Best Makeup
Barney's Version
The Way Back
The Wolfman -- Alaina's Pick
It's THE WOLFMAN.
Best Costume Design
Alice in Wonderland -- Alaina's Pick
I Am Love
The King's Speech
The Tempest
True Grit
Oh crap ... there's ... there aren't any hoop skirts! How can I play the Hoop Skirt Rule when there aren't any hoop skirts?! Uh, Alice in Wonderland had some floofy skirts, right? RIGHT?
Best Art Direction
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1
Inception -- Alaina's Pick
The King's Speech
True Grit
I had to look this up last year because I always get confused between Art Direction and Cinematography. Apparently, Art Direction = Set Direction, while Cinematography = Lighting & Composition. So if I look at it through those lenses (heh), I'm going to give Art Direction to Inception Fake worlds, people! (They'll give it to Harry Potter next year.)
Best Cinematography
Black Swan
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network
True Grit -- Alaina's Pick
And this will go to True Grit, because it's going to get shut out of the other statuette races, and also, it's a very visually pretty movie.
Best Editing
Black Swan
The Fighter -- Alaina's Pick
The King's Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network
Here's the thing: this category could decide the whole shebang. Historically, a movie can't win Best Picture without first winning Best Editing. Of course, there are exceptions: apparently "Roderick Jaynes" did not win Best Editing for No Country for Old Men, but probably because the Academy knew "Roderick Jaynes" is not a real person. But less that exception, every year I've been doing this Running Commentary thing, Best Picture has always gone to the one that won Best Editing.
I'll get back to why this category could determine my entire night later. But looking at the editing of these films and how well that editing helped to tell the story, I'm going to have to go with ... jeez, it's probably between The Fighter and The Social Network. And my very hungry gut is telling me to go with The Fighter because it was such a tightly told story with a lot of quick cuts that The Social Network just cannot claim.
Best Foreign Language Film
Biutiful, Mexico -- Alaina's Pick
Dogtooth, Greece
In a Better World, Denmark
Incendies, Canada
Outside the Law (Hors-la-loi), Algeria
Guys -- Biutiful stars Javier Bardem and had a second Oscar nomination. It won something at the Cannes Film Festival. This will win this category.
And here's where I actually started making an effort to watch every movie.
Best Animated Feature
How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3 -- Alaina's Pick
I swear, they should just rename this the Pixar Award.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Danny Boyle & Simon Beaufoy, 127 Hours
Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network -- Alaina's Pick
Michael Arndt; John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton, and Lee Unkrich, Toy Story 3
Joel Coen & Ethan Coen, True Grit
Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini, Winter's Bone
The Social Network will win here -- it won't win Best Picture (I maintain this!), but they'll give recognition to adapting a book about a bratty billionaire that everyone hated. Although I'm going to hate hearing him call himself Oscar Winner Aaron Sorkin from now to eternity.
Best Original Screenplay
Mike Leigh, Another Year
Scott Silver and Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson, and Keith Dorrington, The Fighter
Christopher Nolan, Inception
Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg, The Kids Are All Right
David Seidler, The King's Speech -- Alaina's Pick
I would love to see The Fighter win here, but it's going to go to The King's Speech. From the inspiring message it delivers to the story that Colin Firth told on The Daily Show about how the Queen Mum did not want the movie made while she was living, it's a cute story. And the Academy likes to reward cute stories with prizes.
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Melissa Leo, The Fighter -- Alaina's Pick
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom
Melissa Leo is the odds-on favorite for her brash, almost unsympathetic role in The Fighter. Now, having said that? If either Helena Bonham Carter or Hailee Steinfeld wins, I'm totally going to jump for joy. Not that I don't like Melissa Leo or her role - I do, and I did. I just liked Helena Bonham Carter and Hailee Steinfeld's characters better.
Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, The Fighter -- Alaina's Pick
John Hawkes, Winter's Bone
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
He had a better northeastern accent than me in this movie, and I'm from two hours north of Boston. He's from Wales. Who else is going to take this home, Mark Ruffalo? I don't friggin' think so.
Best Actress
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman, Black Swan -- Alaina's Pick
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine
Dear Annette Bening: Maybe next time, don't be so shrewish and harpy-resembling. Love, Alaina's eardrums. But seriously, Natalie Portman did a lot of acting in her eyes -- her crazy eyes, to be specific. You could tell that her character had something ... off about her from the start, and Annette Bening's acting doesn't come close, in my opinion. Having said that, I also really liked Michelle William's performance in Blue Valentine. I don't think she's going to win, by any means, but I thought she was very solid.
Best Actor
Javier Bardem, Biutiful
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King's Speech -- Alaina's Pick
James Franco, 127 Hours
Oh, Colin Firth. You're so pretty and extremely talented and self-effacing. I can't wait for your speech.
Best Director
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
David O. Russell, The Fighter
Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
David Fincher, The Social Network -- Alaina's Pick
Joel Coen & Ethan Coen, True Grit
Best Picture
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech -- Alaina's Pick
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone
Wait, Alaina, why aren't you explaining your choices for Best Picture and Best Director? Well, here's the thing. This afternoon, Brad and myself made a Gentlemanly Wager, and a movie ticket is riding on the outcome. He is convinced that The Social Network will win both Best Picture and Best Director. I agree that The Social Network will take home Best Director for David Fincher, because he's overdue for recognition. But, I maintain that The King's Speech will win Best Picture because it's a better picture than The Social Network. Brad's convinced that the awards are never split. I brought up Crash and Brokeback Mountain. He scoffed. I started yelling, and then Hugh interceded and made us bet rather than have us reenact The Fighter on the sales floor.
In part, this is why Best Editing is such an important category to me this year. If The Social Network wins Best Editing and Best Director, it could very well go on for Best Picture. But my gut is telling me that The King's Speech was the Best Picture of the year, and I should know: I'VE SEEN THEM ALL.
So. Brad has promised to call me at 11:57 tonight when all is said and done (or around 10:30, if the show stays on time, which it won't). Keep your fingers crossed that I'm right and the awards split; otherwise, he'll be insufferable for the next two weeks.
Tune in later tonight after the formatting is taken care of for the Seventh Annual Running Commentary to the Academy Awards.