Arctic Sea Ice Forum
Neven Curlin, who writes the Arctic Sea Ice Blog is taking a sabbatical.
"I'm really going to take a break from blogging, as I have been struggling with an Arctic burn-out since 2012. On the one hand it's caused by everything that has been and still is going on in the Arctic. The learning curve, the excitement, but most of all the depression that comes with watching this steamroller just plough forward, is taking its toll." Neven, full post here
One thing that Neven left us with is the Sea Ice Forum. I'm going to start posting some quotes from there, because it helps me organize it in my head. I'll put it under a cut for the folks who aren't into watching this disaster; there are so many disasters going on right now. I'll tag these posts with "asif".
Tigertown, Reply #1144 on: 12/2/16 at 06:32:41 AM -- "GFS is not looking much better seven days out for the Arctic."
seaicesailor, Reply #1145 on: 12/2/16 at 06:54:04 AM "This comes accompanied with an above 1050 hPa high over Beaufort and Canada that will push more southernly winds thru Bering and from Laptev toward Greenland setting the older ice North of Greenland in motion toward the Atlantic. A dangerous push, will last for five days, we will see how persistent beyond that."
jdallen, Reply #1146 on: 12/2/16 at 08:52:55 AM "5 days = 30,000-50,000 KM2 of older ice out the door."
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jai mitchell Re: Conservative Scientists & its Consequences, Reply #1555 on: November 13, 2016, 07:09:16 PM
"For example, the impacts of a sudden ocean acidification on the production rates of dimethylsulfide is not comparative, the increased warming due to this impact likely did not occur in previous interglacials, additionally, a rapid collapse of tropical peat and tropical rainforests, the sudden release of CO2 from rapidly warming soils and the rapid disassociation of permafrost is also not comparable to these much slower events.
Finally, any attempt at modeling future climate responses, not taking into account the much slower warming rates of the world's oceans, must understand that the long-wave emissions from the worlds oceans during the early Pleistocene when CO2 was last at 400 ppmv and CH4 emissions rates were comparable to today's was much higher, that the oceans won't reach temperature equilibrium for another 2,000 years or so, and that the land and air temperatures will have to compensate by warming that much more to reach thermal equilibrium with the increased radiative forcing and ESS responses to this rapidly warmed climate.
Indeed, only a WWII total societal mobilization response will produce the rapid reductions in emissions necessary to give us even a slim chance of maintaining our modern society."
AbruptSLR Re: Conservative Scientists & its Consequences, Reply #1558 on: November 14, 2016, 11:51:33 AM "...Finally, for this post, I believe that by the time reasonably accurate projections are available circa 2032 we will have passed a tipping point leading to global socio-economic collapse (in the 2045 to 2060 timeframe) driving substantially by non-linear climate change related impacts. As published projections from a ACME-Phase 4 climate model will not be available for something like 16-years, and as reticent science hides risk in the "tall grass" of uncertainty, I recommend that risk managers use Scenario Based Hazard Assessment, SBHA (guided by both Bayesian methodology & information theory), to get a better handle on the poorly defined risks that are currently heavily discounted by reticent science. Then the findings of such SBHA efforts could be used in Robust Decision Making, RDM, to better adapt to the coming consequences of the Anthropocene era."
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I can only read so much without going completely batshit. As far as my family and I -- we talk and talk and TALK. But we're not moving fast enough. Sometimes I think that there is no fast enough.
I talked to the nursing department yesterday and they said that they won't be able to concretely confirm my seat until December 23.
Originally posted to Dreamwidth, were there are
comments. Dreamwidth comments
"I'm really going to take a break from blogging, as I have been struggling with an Arctic burn-out since 2012. On the one hand it's caused by everything that has been and still is going on in the Arctic. The learning curve, the excitement, but most of all the depression that comes with watching this steamroller just plough forward, is taking its toll." Neven, full post here
One thing that Neven left us with is the Sea Ice Forum. I'm going to start posting some quotes from there, because it helps me organize it in my head. I'll put it under a cut for the folks who aren't into watching this disaster; there are so many disasters going on right now. I'll tag these posts with "asif".
Tigertown, Reply #1144 on: 12/2/16 at 06:32:41 AM -- "GFS is not looking much better seven days out for the Arctic."
seaicesailor, Reply #1145 on: 12/2/16 at 06:54:04 AM "This comes accompanied with an above 1050 hPa high over Beaufort and Canada that will push more southernly winds thru Bering and from Laptev toward Greenland setting the older ice North of Greenland in motion toward the Atlantic. A dangerous push, will last for five days, we will see how persistent beyond that."
jdallen, Reply #1146 on: 12/2/16 at 08:52:55 AM "5 days = 30,000-50,000 KM2 of older ice out the door."
----
jai mitchell Re: Conservative Scientists & its Consequences, Reply #1555 on: November 13, 2016, 07:09:16 PM
"For example, the impacts of a sudden ocean acidification on the production rates of dimethylsulfide is not comparative, the increased warming due to this impact likely did not occur in previous interglacials, additionally, a rapid collapse of tropical peat and tropical rainforests, the sudden release of CO2 from rapidly warming soils and the rapid disassociation of permafrost is also not comparable to these much slower events.
Finally, any attempt at modeling future climate responses, not taking into account the much slower warming rates of the world's oceans, must understand that the long-wave emissions from the worlds oceans during the early Pleistocene when CO2 was last at 400 ppmv and CH4 emissions rates were comparable to today's was much higher, that the oceans won't reach temperature equilibrium for another 2,000 years or so, and that the land and air temperatures will have to compensate by warming that much more to reach thermal equilibrium with the increased radiative forcing and ESS responses to this rapidly warmed climate.
Indeed, only a WWII total societal mobilization response will produce the rapid reductions in emissions necessary to give us even a slim chance of maintaining our modern society."
AbruptSLR Re: Conservative Scientists & its Consequences, Reply #1558 on: November 14, 2016, 11:51:33 AM "...Finally, for this post, I believe that by the time reasonably accurate projections are available circa 2032 we will have passed a tipping point leading to global socio-economic collapse (in the 2045 to 2060 timeframe) driving substantially by non-linear climate change related impacts. As published projections from a ACME-Phase 4 climate model will not be available for something like 16-years, and as reticent science hides risk in the "tall grass" of uncertainty, I recommend that risk managers use Scenario Based Hazard Assessment, SBHA (guided by both Bayesian methodology & information theory), to get a better handle on the poorly defined risks that are currently heavily discounted by reticent science. Then the findings of such SBHA efforts could be used in Robust Decision Making, RDM, to better adapt to the coming consequences of the Anthropocene era."
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
I can only read so much without going completely batshit. As far as my family and I -- we talk and talk and TALK. But we're not moving fast enough. Sometimes I think that there is no fast enough.
I talked to the nursing department yesterday and they said that they won't be able to concretely confirm my seat until December 23.
Originally posted to Dreamwidth, were there are
comments. Dreamwidth comments