Calculus of Voting
I voted this morning (for whom? You'll have to ask me in person). And in honor of this election day and my trip to the polls, I bring you the Individual Calculus of Voting equation to help us all determine why we vote:
R = p(B) - C + D
Where:
R is the expected value of voting,
p is the probability that an individual's vote will make a difference in the election (0 < p <1)
B is the benefit of having your preferred candidate win.
C is the cost of voting
D is the satisfaction that comes from the act of voting.
Without D, the expected value of voting would be negative for almost everyone.
Let's take a closer look at this equation. We will be realistic about the probability of my individual vote actually determining the election. Its zero. Want to challenge, read this article first. And let's assume that I derive no satisfaction from voting or have no feelings of civic duty. We are left with the following:
R = 0(B) - C + 0
R = - C
My expected value of voting is equal to the cost of voting (waiting in line, gas to drive to and from the polling location, lost wages due to time off work, lost time with friends at lunch, etc.) Hmm, that's no good. So, why do people vote? Not for any rational reason. If we were rational, we'd understand that the cost far outweighs any potential benefit. We'd let other's do the voting for us. So, again, why do we vote? It comes down to two words "Civic Duty". We vote because we feel that it is our right, privilege, obligation because we are American citizens. Or maybe we vote because we enjoy wearing the little "I Voted" sticker all day and acting smug around those who aren't (because they obviously don't appreciate or understand their civic duty).
Its an interesting brain exercise. And just goes to show you that American's will forgo an assorted number of costs for the satisfaction of feeling that we did our duty.
********
Note: Yes, you can argue that if everyone was rational about voting, then this model would not stand up. But again, we are not rational about voting. 50% of Amercans go to the polls every 4 years to vote in a presidential election. Civic duty is alive and well, and those with a rational mind can rest at ease that if they choose for forgo the cost of voting, they needn't worry that their one vote would determine the election.
R = p(B) - C + D
Where:
R is the expected value of voting,
p is the probability that an individual's vote will make a difference in the election (0 < p <1)
B is the benefit of having your preferred candidate win.
C is the cost of voting
D is the satisfaction that comes from the act of voting.
Without D, the expected value of voting would be negative for almost everyone.
Let's take a closer look at this equation. We will be realistic about the probability of my individual vote actually determining the election. Its zero. Want to challenge, read this article first. And let's assume that I derive no satisfaction from voting or have no feelings of civic duty. We are left with the following:
R = 0(B) - C + 0
R = - C
My expected value of voting is equal to the cost of voting (waiting in line, gas to drive to and from the polling location, lost wages due to time off work, lost time with friends at lunch, etc.) Hmm, that's no good. So, why do people vote? Not for any rational reason. If we were rational, we'd understand that the cost far outweighs any potential benefit. We'd let other's do the voting for us. So, again, why do we vote? It comes down to two words "Civic Duty". We vote because we feel that it is our right, privilege, obligation because we are American citizens. Or maybe we vote because we enjoy wearing the little "I Voted" sticker all day and acting smug around those who aren't (because they obviously don't appreciate or understand their civic duty).
Its an interesting brain exercise. And just goes to show you that American's will forgo an assorted number of costs for the satisfaction of feeling that we did our duty.
********
Note: Yes, you can argue that if everyone was rational about voting, then this model would not stand up. But again, we are not rational about voting. 50% of Amercans go to the polls every 4 years to vote in a presidential election. Civic duty is alive and well, and those with a rational mind can rest at ease that if they choose for forgo the cost of voting, they needn't worry that their one vote would determine the election.