bird flu update
WHO: Indonesian bird flu cluster may be human-to-human-to-human spread.
The large cluster of human cases of H5N1 avian flu being investigated in Indonesia may represent the first time the virus has been seen to ignite two successive waves of human-to-human spread, the World Health Organization said Tuesday.
A spokesperson said the agency has not yet started the process of reviewing whether the global pandemic alert level should be raised to Phase 4 from the current Phase 3.
But Maria Cheng said it is conceivable that WHO might convene a meeting of the panel of experts who would advise on that decision - depending on what further investigation in the affected area reveals.
...
According to the WHO's six-level pandemic staging plan, Phase 3 is no human-to-human spread, or only on rare occasions after close contact with a sick individual. Phase 4 is a small cluster or clusters of limited and localized human-to-human spread, a pattern suggesting the virus had not yet become fully efficient at infecting people. Phase 6 is a pandemic.
Contrary to what you may have seen in the news, there have been occurances of human to human transmission (H2H) before. That's when someone catches the virus from another person, rather than from a bird source such as sick birds or their feces, which is known as bird to human transmission (B2H). What makes this different is that the virus has passed from the second person to others, rather than stopping with them (when they either recover or die).
And at least one expert is worried that the transmission between people is requiring less than the extensive exposure it has needed in the past:
Henderson, who wasn't so sure, suggested in this case it seems illness has spread beyond caregivers to others in the family. An 18-month-old girl and a 10-year-old boy are among the dead.
"They all had contact, but it was not the kind of contact we've had described before, where the caregiver would be really heavily exposed," he noted.
His concern is that the virus may have changed in a way that makes it better adapted to humans. This does NOT mean the pandemic has begun. Still, Revere at Effect Measure says the latest from WHO is not comforting. Just A Bump in the Beltway provides some bird flu perspective and encourages personal preparation:
H5N1 influenza is a novel virus of extraordinary lethality. Should it evolve to the point where it becomes easily passed between humans, the level of damage it could do to us and our society is nearly unimaginable. What's the likelihood of this happening? Frankly, we don't know. There is no data.
...
Dr. Rob Webster, the dean of flu researchers in the US, has stockpiled three months of food, water and necessary medications for his family. Rob is not a catastrophist or a survivalist, he's a sober-sided scientist who says that this is the scariest virus he's ever seen.
...
The virus is not yet "efficient" at being passed between humans. Will that change? We don't know. There is a probability which is greater than zero which says it never happens. There is also the known ability of all flu virus to demonstrate genetic alteration which it allows it to find more hosts, places where it can replicate and spread...
Also, for some reason the U.S. is sending (U.S.? WHO?) stockpiles of Tamiflu to Asia. Indonesia? Iraq? Some other staging location? How much, and why? They don't say, so we can only speculate. This could be an ominous sign... or not.
So that's where we are right now.
For background on bird flu, see my January pandemic information post. For more information than any one person can absorb (but in a good way), visit the Flu Wiki. For the latest H5N1 news throughout the day, see Crofsblog's H5N1 blog.
The large cluster of human cases of H5N1 avian flu being investigated in Indonesia may represent the first time the virus has been seen to ignite two successive waves of human-to-human spread, the World Health Organization said Tuesday.
A spokesperson said the agency has not yet started the process of reviewing whether the global pandemic alert level should be raised to Phase 4 from the current Phase 3.
But Maria Cheng said it is conceivable that WHO might convene a meeting of the panel of experts who would advise on that decision - depending on what further investigation in the affected area reveals.
...
According to the WHO's six-level pandemic staging plan, Phase 3 is no human-to-human spread, or only on rare occasions after close contact with a sick individual. Phase 4 is a small cluster or clusters of limited and localized human-to-human spread, a pattern suggesting the virus had not yet become fully efficient at infecting people. Phase 6 is a pandemic.
Contrary to what you may have seen in the news, there have been occurances of human to human transmission (H2H) before. That's when someone catches the virus from another person, rather than from a bird source such as sick birds or their feces, which is known as bird to human transmission (B2H). What makes this different is that the virus has passed from the second person to others, rather than stopping with them (when they either recover or die).
And at least one expert is worried that the transmission between people is requiring less than the extensive exposure it has needed in the past:
Henderson, who wasn't so sure, suggested in this case it seems illness has spread beyond caregivers to others in the family. An 18-month-old girl and a 10-year-old boy are among the dead.
"They all had contact, but it was not the kind of contact we've had described before, where the caregiver would be really heavily exposed," he noted.
His concern is that the virus may have changed in a way that makes it better adapted to humans. This does NOT mean the pandemic has begun. Still, Revere at Effect Measure says the latest from WHO is not comforting. Just A Bump in the Beltway provides some bird flu perspective and encourages personal preparation:
H5N1 influenza is a novel virus of extraordinary lethality. Should it evolve to the point where it becomes easily passed between humans, the level of damage it could do to us and our society is nearly unimaginable. What's the likelihood of this happening? Frankly, we don't know. There is no data.
...
Dr. Rob Webster, the dean of flu researchers in the US, has stockpiled three months of food, water and necessary medications for his family. Rob is not a catastrophist or a survivalist, he's a sober-sided scientist who says that this is the scariest virus he's ever seen.
...
The virus is not yet "efficient" at being passed between humans. Will that change? We don't know. There is a probability which is greater than zero which says it never happens. There is also the known ability of all flu virus to demonstrate genetic alteration which it allows it to find more hosts, places where it can replicate and spread...
Also, for some reason the U.S. is sending (U.S.? WHO?) stockpiles of Tamiflu to Asia. Indonesia? Iraq? Some other staging location? How much, and why? They don't say, so we can only speculate. This could be an ominous sign... or not.
So that's where we are right now.
For background on bird flu, see my January pandemic information post. For more information than any one person can absorb (but in a good way), visit the Flu Wiki. For the latest H5N1 news throughout the day, see Crofsblog's H5N1 blog.