Linux on modern PC hardware is harder work today than it was say 5y ago. Also, the Linux desktop today is inferior to that of 5y ago, more splintered and incoherent, with lots of new tech and new desktops which are not generally well-liked by users. And the thing that nobody is spotting is that all this is a direct result of Microsoft's efforts
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Question is, does it matter? I found Linux installs smoothly had has since around about 2008 and don't see anything that could improve it. It's a pain if you do it on old hardware -- everything is -- don't do that.
There's new tech which is not well-liked by all. "Doctor, it hurts when I do this." If you don't well-like a tech don't use the tech.
Also, I've never really understood your believe that Ubuntu looks like it does because it's terrified of MS patents. Ubuntu looks like it does because it shamelessly apes Apple.
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http://www.theregister.co.uk/2013/06/03/thank_microsoft_for_linux_desktop_fail/
GNOME 2 had won. We had one, standard, solid Free desktop that almost everyone liked. Even Solaris ran it.
Now, we have a weird GNOME most people don't seem to like, a weird Mac-like Ubuntu one most people don't seem to like, about half-a-dozen half-assed Windows clones (Cinnamon, GNOME Classic, Consort, LXDE, Razor-Qt, KDE) plus things that are kinda sorta a bit like GNOME 2 (Maté, Xfce).
Divide and conquer is not a new observation. That Red article originally ended with "διαίρει καὶ βασίλευε" (diaírei kaì basíleue) which my editor rather fairly said was a bit on the obscure side.
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I agree with your editor. :-)
What does it mean?
Incidentally, the best estimates I can currently find seem to have Linux desktop share growing -- so I guess at least we can take comfort in the fact that its imminent death isn't hurting its bottom line.
[To be honest, I don't actually care... selfishly, the Linux user share is large enough now that if it shrinks to 10% of current volume, I'll still get good enough support -- because I did when it was 10% of its current volume. So if Linux desktop "dies" it will still be usable to me and it will likely continue to be 50-50 Linux/Mac for the scientific community unless something radical happens.]
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I have read reports of figures of diminishing numbers of contributors.
But that lack of contributors is to one project -- it's really not that exciting to do touch up work for a large project -- and as you pointed out, there are now six or seven desktops. So the people who want to contribute to a desktop project have many more choices now.
If the effort remained the same and was split six ways you wouldn't be hearing some rumours that the project had lost staff, you'd be hearing desperate cries of pain.
there's still a perception of desktop Linux as a toy.
There's a perception of any given desktop as a toy. Windows (obviously juvenile), Mac OSX with its shiny shiny and it's lack of configurability (obviously a toy), Linux with it's dumbed down mac-a-like (surely a toy).
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