Linux on modern PC hardware is harder work today than it was say 5y ago. Also, the Linux desktop today is inferior to that of 5y ago, more splintered and incoherent, with lots of new tech and new desktops which are not generally well-liked by users. And the thing that nobody is spotting is that all this is a direct result of Microsoft's efforts
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I'm interested in what we will end up with. In 1993 I used to make effort to make my desktop look great because I figured I used it every day. So I learned the parameters that tweaked my desktop stuff (at the time IRIX) and felt proud when people asked me "how did you get your toolbox like that" and said "ooh cool" if I saw someone had some new feature and learned how to duplicate it. Nowadays I accept what Ubuntu puts out even if I don't really get it or like it. Even moved to the feared Unity (which drives me mental some days) because I figure it will mutate again in a year or three.
Linux has, for obvious reasons, a techie community... one problem in fact is that linux desktop is driven by its users who are a hardcore bunch by world standards and will resist "dumbing down" even if that might increase broad appeal.
It would be interesting if Linux could somehow branch into "smart linux" and "stupid linux" -- but still retain a dev community around stupid linux. [Oh god, what if it did and I'm using stupid linux and I don't know it -- actually, the bright young things in the office use either Mac or Ubuntu, I should be safe.]
After 20 years I've adopted click to focus. The horror!
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I have read reports of figures of diminishing numbers of contributors.
E.g. http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/11/04/state_of_gnome/ [*not* by me]
The /user/ community is growing, sure.
I agree re customisation efforts, mind you.
And yes, I worry a bit too about dumbing down. I speculate that there's a level of polish where it will appeal to jaded techies who want it to Just Work - that's where Apple's made a lot of inroads. A decade ago, Macs were toys for poseurs - now, I know lots of hardcore techies who've Switched. A lot of one-time Linux evangelists have gone Mac - q.v.
http://slashdot.org/story/04/10/20/1518217/neal-stephenson-responds-with-wit-and-humor
Some are now switching to Ubuntu - q.v.
http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2011/may/17/computing-opensource
... but there's still a perception of desktop Linux as a toy.
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I have read reports of figures of diminishing numbers of contributors.
But that lack of contributors is to one project -- it's really not that exciting to do touch up work for a large project -- and as you pointed out, there are now six or seven desktops. So the people who want to contribute to a desktop project have many more choices now.
If the effort remained the same and was split six ways you wouldn't be hearing some rumours that the project had lost staff, you'd be hearing desperate cries of pain.
there's still a perception of desktop Linux as a toy.
There's a perception of any given desktop as a toy. Windows (obviously juvenile), Mac OSX with its shiny shiny and it's lack of configurability (obviously a toy), Linux with it's dumbed down mac-a-like (surely a toy).
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