The Zogby Poll for Halloween
Just in: Drudge had a statement about a new Zogby poll indicating that McCain was ahead of Obama in a poll conducted on Halloween.
Zogby, two minutes ago, confirmed it:Pollster John Zogby: "Is McCain making a move? The three-day average holds steady, but McCain outpolled Obama today, 48% to 47%. He is beginning to cut into Obama's lead among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters. Joe the Plumber may get his license after all. "Obama's lead among women declined, and it looks like it is occurring because McCain is solidifying the support of conservative women, which is something we saw last time McCain picked up in the polls. If McCain has a good day tomorrow, we will eliminate Obama's good day three days ago, and we could really see some tightening in this rolling average. But for now, hold on."
Note that "Obama's good day" will be eliminated ANYWAY, since that is how a three-day rolling average works.
This is surprisingly positive news.
And there is something of a fallacy of three-day averages when very close to the election. What matters is Tuesday. A daily value should be posted from here on out. At least we'll be able to calculate it pretty closely based on the information revealed just now.
An aside: the three-day average almost certainly WILL improve for McCain tomorrow, since it is dropping a "good for Obama" day three days back. It would take an equally good day for Obama in Saturday polling to keep the average where it is now.
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Zogby, two minutes ago, confirmed it:Pollster John Zogby: "Is McCain making a move? The three-day average holds steady, but McCain outpolled Obama today, 48% to 47%. He is beginning to cut into Obama's lead among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters. Joe the Plumber may get his license after all. "Obama's lead among women declined, and it looks like it is occurring because McCain is solidifying the support of conservative women, which is something we saw last time McCain picked up in the polls. If McCain has a good day tomorrow, we will eliminate Obama's good day three days ago, and we could really see some tightening in this rolling average. But for now, hold on."
Note that "Obama's good day" will be eliminated ANYWAY, since that is how a three-day rolling average works.
This is surprisingly positive news.
And there is something of a fallacy of three-day averages when very close to the election. What matters is Tuesday. A daily value should be posted from here on out. At least we'll be able to calculate it pretty closely based on the information revealed just now.
An aside: the three-day average almost certainly WILL improve for McCain tomorrow, since it is dropping a "good for Obama" day three days back. It would take an equally good day for Obama in Saturday polling to keep the average where it is now.
===|==============/ Level Head