Rick V Mitt
Strategy in electoral politics is sometimes portrayed as 'too complex for the public to understand' but as I see it there are only two ways to fail a two-party election: Not getting enough votes for your guy, and too many votes going for the other guy.
Given that simplistic and crude premise, the other day, severinpgh asked me with respect to strategic outlook, whom should democrats hope for as the official "other guy": Santorum or Romney.
Here's what I think: Democrats should pray for a Romney nomination, and should be very very afraid of a November with Rick Santorum as the opponent.
Why? Because Santorum would win -- for some of the same reasons that Obama did -- and he'll take the national congress, and local legislatures to the Right with him.
Let me walk you through my Santorum scenario.
It's going to be a fight, no matter who the "other guy" is
Upon adoption of the Constitution, our great nation chose to favor elections over dynasties, which means that in order to keep their jobs incumbent presidents will always depend on that two-timing gold digger of a whore that is the American electorate.
Some incumbent presidents have sailed to easy reelection victory, but another term for Obama is by no means guaranteed. The 'anybody but Obama' statistical majority is a nontrivial force Obama's campaign has to combat, regardless of the identity of his Republican opponent.
So, let's look forward to September. The August RNC Convention has happened, and the Republican party has chosen a final Nominee [1]. Regardless of who the nominee turns out to be, a couple things happen automagically:
1. The nominee gets "most legitimate non-Obama option" under his photo in the yearbook circulating among undecided anti-incumbent voters.
2. Supporters of the also-rans, and their PACs start funneling their energy (and money) into the nominee's tank (and coffers).
3. That money starts getting spent, targeting Obama (and his voters)
Santorum will make it an especially hard fight.
Why? Because as we have said before, the American public, who are generally rational, get-along-with-ya folk with moderate opinions -- doesn't look anything like the electorate. The public doesn't actually show up to vote. The crazies do. Reliably so. On both ends of the spectrum. Thus, the more extreme candidate is more likely to help Obama fail via part b) of our formula above -- too many votes going to the other guy (the Republican) -- because more moderate voters who might have had a hard time choosing between Obama OR Romney, will just plain stay home.
This is Base Ball
Votes are coming so incredibly cheaply to Santorum it's remarkable. He almost won Ohio, picking up a sizable chunk of delegates on just 10% of Romney's budget. In Ohio and nationwide, primary votes cast for Santorum are a dime on Romney's dollar. Why do cheap votes matter? Because this is base ball, as we've talked about before, and cheap votes indicate that the candidate has (and is connected to) a strong base. A sector that doesn't need to be persuaded or convinced. In the primaries so far, Romney has not once demonstrated evidence of a base.
Furthermore, Mr. Santorum's bases of faithfuls and angry boomers[2] brings with it the mantle of the traditional likely voter -- something our polling system is already capable of accurately analyzing to make reliable predictions of future election events. Obama's bases of young, first time, and African-American voters are by definition unlikely. We might expect polls to show an inflated lead, therefore, for the Republican whose support is easy to measure. Underdog Lethargy[3] may therefore become an obstacle to turning support for Obama into a vote for him. The sinker for part (a) of our formula above, -- not enough votes for your guy.
So what do y'all think? Am I missing something critical?
[1] Of course, that might happen much sooner than September
[2] It's enough to make you want to call in the AD Police.
[3] The apathy that come from seeing your guy so far behind in the polls that you might as well not show up, since it's just a token gesture anyway.
Given that simplistic and crude premise, the other day, severinpgh asked me with respect to strategic outlook, whom should democrats hope for as the official "other guy": Santorum or Romney.
Here's what I think: Democrats should pray for a Romney nomination, and should be very very afraid of a November with Rick Santorum as the opponent.
Why? Because Santorum would win -- for some of the same reasons that Obama did -- and he'll take the national congress, and local legislatures to the Right with him.
Let me walk you through my Santorum scenario.
It's going to be a fight, no matter who the "other guy" is
Upon adoption of the Constitution, our great nation chose to favor elections over dynasties, which means that in order to keep their jobs incumbent presidents will always depend on that two-timing gold digger of a whore that is the American electorate.
Some incumbent presidents have sailed to easy reelection victory, but another term for Obama is by no means guaranteed. The 'anybody but Obama' statistical majority is a nontrivial force Obama's campaign has to combat, regardless of the identity of his Republican opponent.
So, let's look forward to September. The August RNC Convention has happened, and the Republican party has chosen a final Nominee [1]. Regardless of who the nominee turns out to be, a couple things happen automagically:
1. The nominee gets "most legitimate non-Obama option" under his photo in the yearbook circulating among undecided anti-incumbent voters.
2. Supporters of the also-rans, and their PACs start funneling their energy (and money) into the nominee's tank (and coffers).
3. That money starts getting spent, targeting Obama (and his voters)
Santorum will make it an especially hard fight.
Why? Because as we have said before, the American public, who are generally rational, get-along-with-ya folk with moderate opinions -- doesn't look anything like the electorate. The public doesn't actually show up to vote. The crazies do. Reliably so. On both ends of the spectrum. Thus, the more extreme candidate is more likely to help Obama fail via part b) of our formula above -- too many votes going to the other guy (the Republican) -- because more moderate voters who might have had a hard time choosing between Obama OR Romney, will just plain stay home.
This is Base Ball
Votes are coming so incredibly cheaply to Santorum it's remarkable. He almost won Ohio, picking up a sizable chunk of delegates on just 10% of Romney's budget. In Ohio and nationwide, primary votes cast for Santorum are a dime on Romney's dollar. Why do cheap votes matter? Because this is base ball, as we've talked about before, and cheap votes indicate that the candidate has (and is connected to) a strong base. A sector that doesn't need to be persuaded or convinced. In the primaries so far, Romney has not once demonstrated evidence of a base.
Furthermore, Mr. Santorum's bases of faithfuls and angry boomers[2] brings with it the mantle of the traditional likely voter -- something our polling system is already capable of accurately analyzing to make reliable predictions of future election events. Obama's bases of young, first time, and African-American voters are by definition unlikely. We might expect polls to show an inflated lead, therefore, for the Republican whose support is easy to measure. Underdog Lethargy[3] may therefore become an obstacle to turning support for Obama into a vote for him. The sinker for part (a) of our formula above, -- not enough votes for your guy.
So what do y'all think? Am I missing something critical?
[1] Of course, that might happen much sooner than September
[2] It's enough to make you want to call in the AD Police.
[3] The apathy that come from seeing your guy so far behind in the polls that you might as well not show up, since it's just a token gesture anyway.