A few years ago I wrote about the "everything" bubble because every investment asset class was in a price bubble. The most extreme example was bonds, which were trading at all-time low interest rates never before seen in human history -- negative interest rates in some cases, which meant lenders were paying borrowers to borrow money. The rate on ( Read more... )

My regression equation did a great job of predicting the outcome of this Presidential election -- it correctly picked which major party would win the major-party popular vote.

But crafting my regression equation taught me a few things about recent (1968-2024) US Presidential elections.

(1) Trump is the most popular Presidential candidate of my ( Read more... )

“Our guys were talking about inflation and the economy and crime and the border. What were they talking about? Jan. 6,” said Rep. Tom Emmer (R-Minn.), who runs the House GOP’s campaign arm.This leading Republican was referring to a special election win in south Texas on Tuesday -- Mayra Flores (R) won the 34th Texas district, which borders Mexico, ( Read more... )

Although the outcome was different in each of 2012, 2016, and 2020, in terms of which party won the White House, the popular vote split between the two major parties barely shifted, ranging between 51.11% and 52.27% for the Democrats. This three-election spread of 1.16% is the smallest spread since 1880-1888. The tiniest of shifts decided whether ( Read more... )

one of my Tweets about foreign policy is blowing up LOL

no way I'm going to delete my social media presence when I run for office in 6 years lol

(is there a difference between "LOL" and "lol")