Friday morning -- and hopefully my final prediction of the 2024 presidential race
Only five more business days as a supervisor, wow. I won't move offices immediately, we'll need to schedule a big office swap as I'm not the only person moving internally. Two non-supervisor managers are becoming supervisors of different workgrous, and one non-supervisor manager is moving to a different workgroup, just as I will move to a different workgroup. I think I can figure out the order of the moves in my head ... there's one vacant office, move Person A there, Person B to A's old office, me to B's old office, and Person C to my old office.
I'm commuting again today, I have to do it twice/week unless I take a day off or there's a holiday. So, next week I only have to commute once, with the holiday. I did get up and stretch this morning.
There are a few things I need to complete as supervisor before I hand things over, I'll schedule those today.
Other than Blue Apron meals, I've run low on food & drink at the house. I expect I'll cook a BA when I get home tonight, and eat the leftovers after I run tomorrow morning, and I'm not intoxicating tonight, so, I can put off the grocery shopping until the weekend.
I'm tempted to head to the condo for two nights, but then I'd give up any chance to socialize with B. But he's made no noise about socializing, and I don't think he gets Monday off. I don't have to decide until tomorrrow!
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Looking at the multi-candidate polling averages and comparing them to the results in 2016 and 2020, if there were no polling error, and if the election were held today, I think we'd see an outcome very similar to 2016. Harris leading the popular vote by a couple points, but Trump comfortably winning the Electoral College with around 300 Electors. If, instead, there is a similar polling error to the last two elections, and Trump closes the deal with the few remaining undecided voters over the next month, then Trump would have a bigger win than in 2016 and could even win the popular vote by a hair.
So this is my final crystal ball prediction for 2024 --> Trump receives a bigger win than 2016 with 312 Electoral Votes, wins all seven swing states, and wins the national popular vote.
Democrats who can read the polls like I can are starting to panic. Others see Harris holding a slim lead in the national polls, with margin-of-error ties in the swing states, and hope with hard work and last-minute cash she can pull it off. Democrats have been outspending Republicans in all seven swing states, but it won't be enough.
This is an occasion where I'd love to be wrong, because I think Trump is flatly unqualified to run a government, but 46% are fine with having him back right now, and that's enough given the rural bias toward Republicans in the Electoral College.
I've read that Republicans believe their best advertising strategy right now is going after transgender kids, transgender prisoners, and transgender immigrants. I've also read that Trump's lies about Haitian immigrants eating pets are believed by 25% of voters. I hate that this stuff motivates people to vote for Trump. But GWBush used the backlash against gay marriage to win in 2004. Papa Bush used racism to win in 1988. Republicans are comfortable using bigotry and lies about minorities to cross the finish line first, even if many Republicans aren't personally bigoted.
On the other hand, Democrats have presided over the worst inflation in decades and stuck with a senile President until it was too late to have a genuine nomination contest, instead handing the nomination to a relatively inexperienced candidate from "liberal" San Francisco who served less than one term in the US Senate, and only one full term as Attorney General in California. When she ran for President in 2020 she dropped out before the first state caucus or primary after running a vapidly left-wing campaign. She has no connection to the swing states, unlike Biden did. She's less experienced or well-known than Hillary was, and the incumbent Democrat Biden is less popular than Obama was, and people are overall less happy with the country than in 2016.
The best issue for Democrats right now is abortion, but voters are viewing that as more of a state ballot issue now, and perhaps as a US Senate issue, but not so much as a presidential issue. It's too late for presidential appointments to keep Roe v. Wade.
I don't think Harris can pull this off. None of the historical trends break her way, and she's not polling well enough as of today. I think between now and Election Day, Trump pulls a couple points up and wins comfortably. There will be no need for anybody to "steal" the election.
I will have to brace for some of my friends getting depressed for years again. But, as much as Democrats talk about the virtues of democracy, they can't stand when Republicans (or Greens) receive the actual votes of the voters. Some Democrats say that if Trump wins there will never be an election in the US again. That's bullshit, and if Democrats had done a decent job of actually governing, Trump would be toast.
I'm commuting again today, I have to do it twice/week unless I take a day off or there's a holiday. So, next week I only have to commute once, with the holiday. I did get up and stretch this morning.
There are a few things I need to complete as supervisor before I hand things over, I'll schedule those today.
Other than Blue Apron meals, I've run low on food & drink at the house. I expect I'll cook a BA when I get home tonight, and eat the leftovers after I run tomorrow morning, and I'm not intoxicating tonight, so, I can put off the grocery shopping until the weekend.
I'm tempted to head to the condo for two nights, but then I'd give up any chance to socialize with B. But he's made no noise about socializing, and I don't think he gets Monday off. I don't have to decide until tomorrrow!
-----
Looking at the multi-candidate polling averages and comparing them to the results in 2016 and 2020, if there were no polling error, and if the election were held today, I think we'd see an outcome very similar to 2016. Harris leading the popular vote by a couple points, but Trump comfortably winning the Electoral College with around 300 Electors. If, instead, there is a similar polling error to the last two elections, and Trump closes the deal with the few remaining undecided voters over the next month, then Trump would have a bigger win than in 2016 and could even win the popular vote by a hair.
So this is my final crystal ball prediction for 2024 --> Trump receives a bigger win than 2016 with 312 Electoral Votes, wins all seven swing states, and wins the national popular vote.
Democrats who can read the polls like I can are starting to panic. Others see Harris holding a slim lead in the national polls, with margin-of-error ties in the swing states, and hope with hard work and last-minute cash she can pull it off. Democrats have been outspending Republicans in all seven swing states, but it won't be enough.
This is an occasion where I'd love to be wrong, because I think Trump is flatly unqualified to run a government, but 46% are fine with having him back right now, and that's enough given the rural bias toward Republicans in the Electoral College.
I've read that Republicans believe their best advertising strategy right now is going after transgender kids, transgender prisoners, and transgender immigrants. I've also read that Trump's lies about Haitian immigrants eating pets are believed by 25% of voters. I hate that this stuff motivates people to vote for Trump. But GWBush used the backlash against gay marriage to win in 2004. Papa Bush used racism to win in 1988. Republicans are comfortable using bigotry and lies about minorities to cross the finish line first, even if many Republicans aren't personally bigoted.
On the other hand, Democrats have presided over the worst inflation in decades and stuck with a senile President until it was too late to have a genuine nomination contest, instead handing the nomination to a relatively inexperienced candidate from "liberal" San Francisco who served less than one term in the US Senate, and only one full term as Attorney General in California. When she ran for President in 2020 she dropped out before the first state caucus or primary after running a vapidly left-wing campaign. She has no connection to the swing states, unlike Biden did. She's less experienced or well-known than Hillary was, and the incumbent Democrat Biden is less popular than Obama was, and people are overall less happy with the country than in 2016.
The best issue for Democrats right now is abortion, but voters are viewing that as more of a state ballot issue now, and perhaps as a US Senate issue, but not so much as a presidential issue. It's too late for presidential appointments to keep Roe v. Wade.
I don't think Harris can pull this off. None of the historical trends break her way, and she's not polling well enough as of today. I think between now and Election Day, Trump pulls a couple points up and wins comfortably. There will be no need for anybody to "steal" the election.
I will have to brace for some of my friends getting depressed for years again. But, as much as Democrats talk about the virtues of democracy, they can't stand when Republicans (or Greens) receive the actual votes of the voters. Some Democrats say that if Trump wins there will never be an election in the US again. That's bullshit, and if Democrats had done a decent job of actually governing, Trump would be toast.