9 days later
Biden quit the 2024 race only 9 days ago, but it already feels like a different planet to many Democrats, whereas Republicans are trying to quickly define Harris as "dangerously liberal" based on many of her past statements. She is from San Francisco, although that city is no longer as liberal as its image suggests.
Trump is still the favorite in the polls, the prediction markets, and the forecast models. Trump leads Harris in the post-Biden polling averages by two points, has a 56% chance of winning in the prediction markets, and a 61% chance of winning in Nate Silver's forecast model.
I would rate Trump's chances of winning even higher, because of the Republican edge in the Electoral College, and because of the slowing economy. Nate's models for 2016 and 2020 underestimated Trump, and I think his 2024 model will also.
Although I proclaimed that I have an open mind about Harris, she's abruptly moving toward the center and rejecting her own previously-liberal positions from her 2020 campaign. For example, she's now pro-fracking, because Democrats fear losing Pennsylvania if they say anything bad about fracking, and they NEED Pennsylvania's electoral votes. She's embracing the same "All of the Above" energy policies as Obama and Biden did, which is a major reason why I'm not a Democrat, but instead a Green. Her website doesn't list any of her positions on the issues! From her store, however, you can see that she's supposedly pro-LGBTQ, pro-reproductive freedom, pro-union, and pro-public schools -- though not in any detailed way. I guess we'll get a Democratic Party platform sometime next month, we'll see what it says.
In her first ad, she's "fearless" and talks about the "future" while saying Trump wants to take us back to the "past". OK!
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Trump is polling higher than at any time this cycle, while Harris is doing better than Biden was before he dropped out. So, she's narrowed the spread from 3.1% to 1.9% over the past nine days. That's not enough, although Democrats feel excited by the momentum. But there's really not much that can move the needle in the polls anymore, we're such a tightly divided nation -- both Trump and Harris are disliked by slightly more than half the country, and 44.8% of voters were prepared to vote for a senile Biden, while 46.2% would vote for not-senile Harris. Only 1.4% shifted after he dropped out.
I heard over and over after Biden's horrible debate performance, the overwhelming opinion among Democrats was that they'd still vote for Biden over Trump, so there weren't that many voters to gain by his dropping out.
I'm still glad he dropped out, and I wish he'd resign. But history has suggested that replacing an unpopular incumbent doesn't usually help. It didn't help Republicans in 1976, and it didn't help Democrats in 1968. It didn't help Democrats in 1952 either.
But, most Democrats are enjoying their honeymoon with Harris. If Harris remains below water in the polls a month from now, they'll get back to fretting and complaining.
Trump is still the favorite in the polls, the prediction markets, and the forecast models. Trump leads Harris in the post-Biden polling averages by two points, has a 56% chance of winning in the prediction markets, and a 61% chance of winning in Nate Silver's forecast model.
I would rate Trump's chances of winning even higher, because of the Republican edge in the Electoral College, and because of the slowing economy. Nate's models for 2016 and 2020 underestimated Trump, and I think his 2024 model will also.
Although I proclaimed that I have an open mind about Harris, she's abruptly moving toward the center and rejecting her own previously-liberal positions from her 2020 campaign. For example, she's now pro-fracking, because Democrats fear losing Pennsylvania if they say anything bad about fracking, and they NEED Pennsylvania's electoral votes. She's embracing the same "All of the Above" energy policies as Obama and Biden did, which is a major reason why I'm not a Democrat, but instead a Green. Her website doesn't list any of her positions on the issues! From her store, however, you can see that she's supposedly pro-LGBTQ, pro-reproductive freedom, pro-union, and pro-public schools -- though not in any detailed way. I guess we'll get a Democratic Party platform sometime next month, we'll see what it says.
In her first ad, she's "fearless" and talks about the "future" while saying Trump wants to take us back to the "past". OK!
-----
Trump is polling higher than at any time this cycle, while Harris is doing better than Biden was before he dropped out. So, she's narrowed the spread from 3.1% to 1.9% over the past nine days. That's not enough, although Democrats feel excited by the momentum. But there's really not much that can move the needle in the polls anymore, we're such a tightly divided nation -- both Trump and Harris are disliked by slightly more than half the country, and 44.8% of voters were prepared to vote for a senile Biden, while 46.2% would vote for not-senile Harris. Only 1.4% shifted after he dropped out.
I heard over and over after Biden's horrible debate performance, the overwhelming opinion among Democrats was that they'd still vote for Biden over Trump, so there weren't that many voters to gain by his dropping out.
I'm still glad he dropped out, and I wish he'd resign. But history has suggested that replacing an unpopular incumbent doesn't usually help. It didn't help Republicans in 1976, and it didn't help Democrats in 1968. It didn't help Democrats in 1952 either.
But, most Democrats are enjoying their honeymoon with Harris. If Harris remains below water in the polls a month from now, they'll get back to fretting and complaining.