exponential math and global warming
Currently, the effect of waste heat on the planet's average temperature is only 0.02°F, compared to 2°F for global warming from emissions. It's higher in cities, more like 4°F on average, but cities are only a small portion of the earth's surface area.
Over the past 10 years, global energy consumption of all kinds increased by 1.4%/year. This represents a doubling every 50 years. If we continue doubling energy consumption every 50 years, eventually waste heat becomes a significant contributor to global warming, even if we were to go Net Zero on emissions (of which there is no indication we're capable).
2074 -- waste heat is 0.04°F
2124 -- waste heat is 0.08°F
2174 -- waste heat is 0.16°F
2224 -- waste heat is 0.32°F
2274 -- waste heat is 0.64°F
2324 -- waste heat is 1.28°F
2374 -- waste heat is 2.56°F -- greater than global warming from emissions is today
2424 -- waste heat is 5.12°F
2474 -- waste heat is 10.24°F
2524 -- waste heat is 20.48°F
2574 -- waste heat is 40.96°F
2624 -- waste heat is 81.92°F
2674 -- waste heat is 163.84°F -- average global temperature exceeds boiling point of water
Again, this assumes we go Net Zero on emissions, which is an unproven assumption.
The exponential math of warming from emissions is far more dire, because we're already at 2°F from emissions. Global warming from emissions is doubling at roughly the same rate as waste heat -- every 50 years.
2074 -- emissions heat is 4°F
2124 -- emissions heat is 8°F
2174 -- emissions heat is 16°F
2224 -- emissions heat is 32°F
2274 -- emissions heat is 64°F -- average global temperature is 124°F, which is higher than humans can survive outdoors
2324 -- emissions heat is 128°F -- average global temperature is 188°F
2374 -- the oceans are literally boiling away --
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This is all fine if you live in the 21st Century, but there's a time limit on how long humans can enjoy exponential growth. And here we're talking about only one variable affecting life on earth -- average global temperature. There are other ways that we are fouling our global nest that are also growing exponentially, such as the amount of trash we send to landfills, and microplastics in our oceans.
But for now, exponential growth is fun, who doesn't like getting a raise in salary each year?
How do we train ourselves to be satisfied with the same amount of stuff, or even less stuff -- instead of exponentially more?
Over the past 10 years, global energy consumption of all kinds increased by 1.4%/year. This represents a doubling every 50 years. If we continue doubling energy consumption every 50 years, eventually waste heat becomes a significant contributor to global warming, even if we were to go Net Zero on emissions (of which there is no indication we're capable).
2074 -- waste heat is 0.04°F
2124 -- waste heat is 0.08°F
2174 -- waste heat is 0.16°F
2224 -- waste heat is 0.32°F
2274 -- waste heat is 0.64°F
2324 -- waste heat is 1.28°F
2374 -- waste heat is 2.56°F -- greater than global warming from emissions is today
2424 -- waste heat is 5.12°F
2474 -- waste heat is 10.24°F
2524 -- waste heat is 20.48°F
2574 -- waste heat is 40.96°F
2624 -- waste heat is 81.92°F
2674 -- waste heat is 163.84°F -- average global temperature exceeds boiling point of water
Again, this assumes we go Net Zero on emissions, which is an unproven assumption.
The exponential math of warming from emissions is far more dire, because we're already at 2°F from emissions. Global warming from emissions is doubling at roughly the same rate as waste heat -- every 50 years.
2074 -- emissions heat is 4°F
2124 -- emissions heat is 8°F
2174 -- emissions heat is 16°F
2224 -- emissions heat is 32°F
2274 -- emissions heat is 64°F -- average global temperature is 124°F, which is higher than humans can survive outdoors
2324 -- emissions heat is 128°F -- average global temperature is 188°F
2374 -- the oceans are literally boiling away --
-----
This is all fine if you live in the 21st Century, but there's a time limit on how long humans can enjoy exponential growth. And here we're talking about only one variable affecting life on earth -- average global temperature. There are other ways that we are fouling our global nest that are also growing exponentially, such as the amount of trash we send to landfills, and microplastics in our oceans.
But for now, exponential growth is fun, who doesn't like getting a raise in salary each year?
How do we train ourselves to be satisfied with the same amount of stuff, or even less stuff -- instead of exponentially more?