final federal midterm tally
Senate: 51D/49R
House: 222R/213D
[There's already one vacancy in the new House, however, due to a death, so now 222R/212D/1V until a special election can be held.]
Pretty much everyone says that Democrats did better than expected due to a combination of abortion rights fervor on the Left, and poor candidate quality on the Right, although poor candidate quality on the Right is not a new phenomenon (and I'd argue we often have poor candidate quality on the Left also, see Hillary and Joe). My own view is that abortion rights fervor on the Left shifted the generic two-party race three points toward Democrats, blunting (but not eliminating) the normal midterm swing against the incumbent party.
Three percent of voters used to vote Republican but switched to Democrat because of abortion rights. Will this shift last beyond one election? Will it be enough to save Democrats in 2024 when we're in a business-cycle recession? Stay tuned!
Now we're in the Lame Duck period when the Old Congress tries to pass as much unpopular legislation as it can before heading home for the holidays. In January, Republicans in the House will face an unusual problem --> there is no candidate on the Right who holds majority support for the Constitutional office of Speaker. It only takes five Republicans to shoot down a candidate and the circular firing squad has formed. Who can get 218 votes for Speaker? We might not know on Day One for the first time in 100 years. Sometimes democracy gets messy ;-)
House: 222R/213D
[There's already one vacancy in the new House, however, due to a death, so now 222R/212D/1V until a special election can be held.]
Pretty much everyone says that Democrats did better than expected due to a combination of abortion rights fervor on the Left, and poor candidate quality on the Right, although poor candidate quality on the Right is not a new phenomenon (and I'd argue we often have poor candidate quality on the Left also, see Hillary and Joe). My own view is that abortion rights fervor on the Left shifted the generic two-party race three points toward Democrats, blunting (but not eliminating) the normal midterm swing against the incumbent party.
Three percent of voters used to vote Republican but switched to Democrat because of abortion rights. Will this shift last beyond one election? Will it be enough to save Democrats in 2024 when we're in a business-cycle recession? Stay tuned!
Now we're in the Lame Duck period when the Old Congress tries to pass as much unpopular legislation as it can before heading home for the holidays. In January, Republicans in the House will face an unusual problem --> there is no candidate on the Right who holds majority support for the Constitutional office of Speaker. It only takes five Republicans to shoot down a candidate and the circular firing squad has formed. Who can get 218 votes for Speaker? We might not know on Day One for the first time in 100 years. Sometimes democracy gets messy ;-)