time for the next Holiday Surge?
COVID case counts have stopped falling in the US over the past 2-3 weeks. It seems the Summer Delta Surge is waning, but a second annual Holiday Surge is building. With daily deaths still above 1,000 :-(
Last year, nobody outside of a clinical trial was fully vaccinated against COVID until after the holiday season was over. It seemed roughly half the country went ahead with their holiday traditions anyway, traveling and socializing, causing our worst COVID surge yet.
Now we have 58% of the population fully vaccinated (although the protective power of vaccination declines over time), with another chunk getting booster shots, and 5-11 year olds now eligible for shots. But we also have the more contagious and more deadly Delta variant. And we have fewer behavior restrictions than we did a year ago. So what will our next Holiday Surge look like?
It seems the median epidemiologist thinks it won't be as bad as last year, because of widespread vaccination and also widespread natural immunity from infection. But "not as bad as last year" allows a wide range of possibilities. I feel the various factors are beyond my ability to model. I'd bet that case counts rise from here through the end of the year, but I have no idea by how much. Right now we have 20% fewer COVID hospital patients than a year ago. So if I had to guess I'd bet this year's Holiday Surge will be 20% smaller than last year's. This would mean going back over 2,500 deaths per day by January 1, 2022.
Even though 2021 isn't over yet, we've had more COVID deaths in the US during 2021 than we did during 2020 -- even with vaccines available. So I'm not sure we should be optimistic that this next Holiday Surge will be smaller than last year's. I can't model it. Oh, people will try, and somebody's model will end up being correct, but it's rolling the dice.
If we do see another Holiday Surge with deaths over 2,500/day, then I can't believe we'll be heading back to the office in January, which is the current plan for federal workers in DC.
The waves from the "Spanish Flu" outbreak of 1918 continued through 1920. COVID isn't flu, but based on that bit of history we may not feel we're back to "normal" until 2023. The "Black Death" of the 14th Century lasted seven years, but human transportation was much slower back then, diseases took longer to spread. Cholera pandemics began in the 19th Century and were terribly persistent until we built sewers and water treatment facilities. The HIV pandemic continues 40 years later ...
It's strange to think that in mid-March 2020 most people figured COVID would only last a short period of time. We'd shut down for a few weeks and then we'd be fine, heh. Then we thought we'd be fine after the vaccines were developed. Now, here I am thinking Booster Bug can go back to the spanking party and the family Christmas party and flying to Portland -- I'm meeting a new person on Thursday! (if he shows up). I can't predict how bad the next Holiday Surge will be, or whether it will spook me, or whether I'll catch COVID, and then what the virus will do to me. There are still activities I haven't done since COVID and still don't want to do.
I wish we'd do the equivalent of sewers and water treatment facilities, only for the air we breathe. Air treatment in every building? Some sort of active personal breathing technology (not just passive masks)? We've learned to assume that the water and other beverages we drink shouldn't give us diseases. I wish we could learn to assume that the air we breathe shouldn't either. It seems there's not much imagination for re-engineering air quality during the 21st Century like we did for water quality during the 19th Century.
Or, maybe we're still in the earliest stages of a series of respiratory virus pandemics that will teach us that we must re-engineer air quality during the 21st Century. Maybe we ain't seen nothin' yet.
Last year, nobody outside of a clinical trial was fully vaccinated against COVID until after the holiday season was over. It seemed roughly half the country went ahead with their holiday traditions anyway, traveling and socializing, causing our worst COVID surge yet.
Now we have 58% of the population fully vaccinated (although the protective power of vaccination declines over time), with another chunk getting booster shots, and 5-11 year olds now eligible for shots. But we also have the more contagious and more deadly Delta variant. And we have fewer behavior restrictions than we did a year ago. So what will our next Holiday Surge look like?
It seems the median epidemiologist thinks it won't be as bad as last year, because of widespread vaccination and also widespread natural immunity from infection. But "not as bad as last year" allows a wide range of possibilities. I feel the various factors are beyond my ability to model. I'd bet that case counts rise from here through the end of the year, but I have no idea by how much. Right now we have 20% fewer COVID hospital patients than a year ago. So if I had to guess I'd bet this year's Holiday Surge will be 20% smaller than last year's. This would mean going back over 2,500 deaths per day by January 1, 2022.
Even though 2021 isn't over yet, we've had more COVID deaths in the US during 2021 than we did during 2020 -- even with vaccines available. So I'm not sure we should be optimistic that this next Holiday Surge will be smaller than last year's. I can't model it. Oh, people will try, and somebody's model will end up being correct, but it's rolling the dice.
If we do see another Holiday Surge with deaths over 2,500/day, then I can't believe we'll be heading back to the office in January, which is the current plan for federal workers in DC.
The waves from the "Spanish Flu" outbreak of 1918 continued through 1920. COVID isn't flu, but based on that bit of history we may not feel we're back to "normal" until 2023. The "Black Death" of the 14th Century lasted seven years, but human transportation was much slower back then, diseases took longer to spread. Cholera pandemics began in the 19th Century and were terribly persistent until we built sewers and water treatment facilities. The HIV pandemic continues 40 years later ...
It's strange to think that in mid-March 2020 most people figured COVID would only last a short period of time. We'd shut down for a few weeks and then we'd be fine, heh. Then we thought we'd be fine after the vaccines were developed. Now, here I am thinking Booster Bug can go back to the spanking party and the family Christmas party and flying to Portland -- I'm meeting a new person on Thursday! (if he shows up). I can't predict how bad the next Holiday Surge will be, or whether it will spook me, or whether I'll catch COVID, and then what the virus will do to me. There are still activities I haven't done since COVID and still don't want to do.
I wish we'd do the equivalent of sewers and water treatment facilities, only for the air we breathe. Air treatment in every building? Some sort of active personal breathing technology (not just passive masks)? We've learned to assume that the water and other beverages we drink shouldn't give us diseases. I wish we could learn to assume that the air we breathe shouldn't either. It seems there's not much imagination for re-engineering air quality during the 21st Century like we did for water quality during the 19th Century.
Or, maybe we're still in the earliest stages of a series of respiratory virus pandemics that will teach us that we must re-engineer air quality during the 21st Century. Maybe we ain't seen nothin' yet.