The one way Hillary could avoid a first-term recession
During her first year or two she'd have to start a war, a war big enough to require a military draft. That sort of demand for labor and materiel would suck the unemployment rate down below 4% and push up inflation while giving the Fed a patriotic reason to delay interest rate hikes.
Will Hillary start a big enough war to stay in office? This sort of thing goes beyond the ability of data to predict. I'm talking about a war big enough to require a military draft, not the piss-ant all-volunteer kind of crap we've been doing in Iraq and Afghanistan.
We do know that big enough wars tend to require party unity -- the same party in control of White House, House, and Senate. We probably won't have that under Hillary. This could be the silver lining of Republicans keeping the House this year -- that Hillary won't be able to start WW III.
Will Hillary start a big enough war to stay in office? This sort of thing goes beyond the ability of data to predict. I'm talking about a war big enough to require a military draft, not the piss-ant all-volunteer kind of crap we've been doing in Iraq and Afghanistan.
We do know that big enough wars tend to require party unity -- the same party in control of White House, House, and Senate. We probably won't have that under Hillary. This could be the silver lining of Republicans keeping the House this year -- that Hillary won't be able to start WW III.