The Next Day: Taking Note for Future Reference
Hello, world!
I have returned to LiveJournal. For one night only, maybe. Because I have thoughts that I don't wanna put on Facebook. Too much of an echo chamber, still a LOT of emotions running high over there.
It is currently 10:49pm on November 9, 2016. It's been one hell of a year for big bad things happening. Bowie. Prince. Wilder. Ali. Scalia. Rickman. All died. Brexit broke the UK off from the EU (unless that doesn't happen). Zika tore through South America and is slowly making its way through Florida and beyond. Natural disasters just keep happening, most recently a major earthquake in Italy and Hurricane Matthew in Florida and the Carolinas.
And yesterday, in what many are calling the end of America as a super power, Donald Trump has been elected president of the United States.
I'm feeling gross just writing the above sentence. Everyone expected a Hillary Clinton blowout. Then people expected a Hillary Clinton close win. Nobody expected this, not even people in Trump's camp.
With the win, as well as the Republicans taking both the House and Senate (and with Scalia's death, an open seat in the Supreme Court to be filled by the above), the US, and the world, are revolting. My Facebook is full of live videos of protests in Seattle, Chicago, Los Angeles. Trump won the electoral college, but Hillary won the popular vote, only the fifth time that's happened in US history but the second time in the last 16 years (Gore in 2000, as well, but the electorals were a lot closer then). I think people are embracing that dissonance as a reason to revolt. Not that they wouldn't have revolted if she had lost both sides.
What's going to happen in the next four years? I have NO idea. That's why I'm writing this now, and writing it in a place I'll be able to see it. I want to know what we got right, what we got wrong. I want to know how much of his rhetoric was hyperbole, and how much of what happens after last night will resonate in 2020 and beyond. This is my time capsule.
Here is a brief summary of what Trump has promised:
- The Wall. It was his big push from day one. Build a wall between the US and Mexico, and make Mexico pay for it.
- Deport all illegal immigrants. Or deport all illegals with a criminal history. He fluctuated on that depending on who he was talking to and when.
- Ban all Muslims from entering the US. Or only let them in with "Extreme Vetting." We don't know what that means. I don't think he does, either.
- While he hasn't said it very much himself, Mike Pence has said they will roll back all LGBT protections placed by Obama through executive order. As of this day, that might mean reversing marriage equality, adoption rights, or trans bathroom protections. It may mean more.
- Blowing up the Affordable Care Act (aka Obamacare) and replacing it with... something?
- Dealing with Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, etc. It may mean a full withdrawal, it may mean a massive escalation. Hell, it may mean nukes. Apparently during his security briefing he asked multiple times "Why don't we just nuke them?" This is bad.
- Revenge. He said during the debates that he would start a new investigation into Clinton's email server issue from her time as Secretary of State, even though the FBI has cleared her of all wrongdoing. He's promised to sue the dozen or so women who have accused him of the sexual assault that he admitted to on tape. He apparently has a list of every man and woman in Congress, the media, and just in general (every ex president and 80 former GOP military minds, for instance) who spoke ill of him. And what does a man like him suddenly placed in a position of power do to a newspaper, a reporter, a comedian who speaks ill of him?
These are the things that have been promised. Hopefully in 4 years we'll look back and roll our eyes at the fearmongering or pandering to the base. I can only hope that that's all. The more of the things that happen from the list above? The closer this country will be to... Man, I don't even know.
Why am I writing this, though, even if it's been written hundreds of times already, and will probably be in a dozen or more books by the time the next election comes around? Because I want to think towards the future. The next list is the brainstorming I've had for the last 24 hours. I'm trying to put a positive spin on all of this. Here is what I'm looking forward to in the next four years. I hope they all come true:
- President Elect Donald Trump in court in November for fraud related to Trump University. It's supposed to happen.
- President Elect Donald Trump in court in December for allegations of sexual assault against a minor. It's supposed to happen.
- The first time Enrique Nieto laughs in Donald's face when he's told that Mexico is supposed to pay for the wall.
- The revolt from his base that will happen when Donald has to tell them how much a wall that size would actually cost, and how much taxes would have to be raised (or how much he's willing to cut from everything else) in order for it to happen.
- The awkwardness of the first State of the Union address, one of the few times Trump has had to speak in front of a hostile audience. Will there be boos? Will there be silence? Will the Democrats even show up?
- Less "looking forward" question, but what happens if some country pisses Donald off enough that he decides to declare war against them? What happens if he decides the best way to end the middle east conflict is through carpet bombing or worse? Will the military hesitate? Will they ignore his orders? The sociologist in me wonders if the US may see its first military coup.
- Okay, pulling back from full-on alternate history, I'm looking forward to the Democrats' next moves. Mid-term elections traditionally swing one or both Houses away from the president. Hoping that is the case this time, as well.
- Looking ahead to 2020, I'm VERY much looking forward to seeing who the Democrats bring to the table to go against Trump. In 20/20 hindsight, commentators agree that Clinton lost the election as much as Trump one it. She didn't excite the base, she was too much of the old class, and she fought a traditional campaign when you really can't do that anymore. She was the heir apparent for the Democratic Party for the last 12 years (lest we forget that she was supposed to be the nominee in 2008 until Obama surged in), and, outside of Bernie Sanders, no one really doubted that she would be the nominee. Even if she shouldn't have been. I'm excited to see who comes forward to take the torch now that we've seen the end of the Clinton dynasty.
- A few names dropped early on for the answer to that question: the Castro brothers of Texas. Amy Klobuchar. Joe Biden. One assumes that Bernie Sanders will be too old to run in 2020, but possibly one of his big supporters will step forward to speak for his supporters.
- Also, a MASSIVE online push in the last 24 hours (if not earlier) for Michelle Obama to run. I consider this a long shot, but I want to leave it here for posterity. She's already said that she doesn't want to be involved in the White House after they leave. And the assumed-to-be-created Obama Foundation will create much of the same donation baggage that hounded Clinton all campaign.
- Finally: the Republicans. I mean the Republicans that were vehemently against him. Will people like the Bushes, McCain, Ayotte, Powell, and the other Republicans who voted against Trump, or voted for him with the bile rising in their throat, bring out a candidate to challenge him in the primaries? Will Jeb or Rubio, bloodied but experienced from the 2016 campaign, take a swing at him after four years? How about another pass for Romney? Maybe some party darling from the House or Senate, or a governor who opposed him? Or Condoleezza Rice? Tom Ridge? Would they dare ask Glen Beck to come in and go showman-vs-showman?
This is just a short list of ways that the scholar, sociologist, and historian in me will be trying to entertain myself for the next four years. Because if I don't, I'll be crying. A lot.
Good luck to you, dear reader, and to myself in 2020. See you on the other side.
I have returned to LiveJournal. For one night only, maybe. Because I have thoughts that I don't wanna put on Facebook. Too much of an echo chamber, still a LOT of emotions running high over there.
It is currently 10:49pm on November 9, 2016. It's been one hell of a year for big bad things happening. Bowie. Prince. Wilder. Ali. Scalia. Rickman. All died. Brexit broke the UK off from the EU (unless that doesn't happen). Zika tore through South America and is slowly making its way through Florida and beyond. Natural disasters just keep happening, most recently a major earthquake in Italy and Hurricane Matthew in Florida and the Carolinas.
And yesterday, in what many are calling the end of America as a super power, Donald Trump has been elected president of the United States.
I'm feeling gross just writing the above sentence. Everyone expected a Hillary Clinton blowout. Then people expected a Hillary Clinton close win. Nobody expected this, not even people in Trump's camp.
With the win, as well as the Republicans taking both the House and Senate (and with Scalia's death, an open seat in the Supreme Court to be filled by the above), the US, and the world, are revolting. My Facebook is full of live videos of protests in Seattle, Chicago, Los Angeles. Trump won the electoral college, but Hillary won the popular vote, only the fifth time that's happened in US history but the second time in the last 16 years (Gore in 2000, as well, but the electorals were a lot closer then). I think people are embracing that dissonance as a reason to revolt. Not that they wouldn't have revolted if she had lost both sides.
What's going to happen in the next four years? I have NO idea. That's why I'm writing this now, and writing it in a place I'll be able to see it. I want to know what we got right, what we got wrong. I want to know how much of his rhetoric was hyperbole, and how much of what happens after last night will resonate in 2020 and beyond. This is my time capsule.
Here is a brief summary of what Trump has promised:
- The Wall. It was his big push from day one. Build a wall between the US and Mexico, and make Mexico pay for it.
- Deport all illegal immigrants. Or deport all illegals with a criminal history. He fluctuated on that depending on who he was talking to and when.
- Ban all Muslims from entering the US. Or only let them in with "Extreme Vetting." We don't know what that means. I don't think he does, either.
- While he hasn't said it very much himself, Mike Pence has said they will roll back all LGBT protections placed by Obama through executive order. As of this day, that might mean reversing marriage equality, adoption rights, or trans bathroom protections. It may mean more.
- Blowing up the Affordable Care Act (aka Obamacare) and replacing it with... something?
- Dealing with Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, etc. It may mean a full withdrawal, it may mean a massive escalation. Hell, it may mean nukes. Apparently during his security briefing he asked multiple times "Why don't we just nuke them?" This is bad.
- Revenge. He said during the debates that he would start a new investigation into Clinton's email server issue from her time as Secretary of State, even though the FBI has cleared her of all wrongdoing. He's promised to sue the dozen or so women who have accused him of the sexual assault that he admitted to on tape. He apparently has a list of every man and woman in Congress, the media, and just in general (every ex president and 80 former GOP military minds, for instance) who spoke ill of him. And what does a man like him suddenly placed in a position of power do to a newspaper, a reporter, a comedian who speaks ill of him?
These are the things that have been promised. Hopefully in 4 years we'll look back and roll our eyes at the fearmongering or pandering to the base. I can only hope that that's all. The more of the things that happen from the list above? The closer this country will be to... Man, I don't even know.
Why am I writing this, though, even if it's been written hundreds of times already, and will probably be in a dozen or more books by the time the next election comes around? Because I want to think towards the future. The next list is the brainstorming I've had for the last 24 hours. I'm trying to put a positive spin on all of this. Here is what I'm looking forward to in the next four years. I hope they all come true:
- President Elect Donald Trump in court in November for fraud related to Trump University. It's supposed to happen.
- President Elect Donald Trump in court in December for allegations of sexual assault against a minor. It's supposed to happen.
- The first time Enrique Nieto laughs in Donald's face when he's told that Mexico is supposed to pay for the wall.
- The revolt from his base that will happen when Donald has to tell them how much a wall that size would actually cost, and how much taxes would have to be raised (or how much he's willing to cut from everything else) in order for it to happen.
- The awkwardness of the first State of the Union address, one of the few times Trump has had to speak in front of a hostile audience. Will there be boos? Will there be silence? Will the Democrats even show up?
- Less "looking forward" question, but what happens if some country pisses Donald off enough that he decides to declare war against them? What happens if he decides the best way to end the middle east conflict is through carpet bombing or worse? Will the military hesitate? Will they ignore his orders? The sociologist in me wonders if the US may see its first military coup.
- Okay, pulling back from full-on alternate history, I'm looking forward to the Democrats' next moves. Mid-term elections traditionally swing one or both Houses away from the president. Hoping that is the case this time, as well.
- Looking ahead to 2020, I'm VERY much looking forward to seeing who the Democrats bring to the table to go against Trump. In 20/20 hindsight, commentators agree that Clinton lost the election as much as Trump one it. She didn't excite the base, she was too much of the old class, and she fought a traditional campaign when you really can't do that anymore. She was the heir apparent for the Democratic Party for the last 12 years (lest we forget that she was supposed to be the nominee in 2008 until Obama surged in), and, outside of Bernie Sanders, no one really doubted that she would be the nominee. Even if she shouldn't have been. I'm excited to see who comes forward to take the torch now that we've seen the end of the Clinton dynasty.
- A few names dropped early on for the answer to that question: the Castro brothers of Texas. Amy Klobuchar. Joe Biden. One assumes that Bernie Sanders will be too old to run in 2020, but possibly one of his big supporters will step forward to speak for his supporters.
- Also, a MASSIVE online push in the last 24 hours (if not earlier) for Michelle Obama to run. I consider this a long shot, but I want to leave it here for posterity. She's already said that she doesn't want to be involved in the White House after they leave. And the assumed-to-be-created Obama Foundation will create much of the same donation baggage that hounded Clinton all campaign.
- Finally: the Republicans. I mean the Republicans that were vehemently against him. Will people like the Bushes, McCain, Ayotte, Powell, and the other Republicans who voted against Trump, or voted for him with the bile rising in their throat, bring out a candidate to challenge him in the primaries? Will Jeb or Rubio, bloodied but experienced from the 2016 campaign, take a swing at him after four years? How about another pass for Romney? Maybe some party darling from the House or Senate, or a governor who opposed him? Or Condoleezza Rice? Tom Ridge? Would they dare ask Glen Beck to come in and go showman-vs-showman?
This is just a short list of ways that the scholar, sociologist, and historian in me will be trying to entertain myself for the next four years. Because if I don't, I'll be crying. A lot.
Good luck to you, dear reader, and to myself in 2020. See you on the other side.