BASEBALL 2008
Faster than a speeding Juan Pierre, more powerful than Ryan Howard after an offseason at the weight room, it's FANTASY BASEBALL 2008!!!
Edit: I think I mistyped my LJ-Cut
I'm getting a slow start this year, but that is intentional. I decided to wait until Spring Training was almost over to make sure I didn't draft too many injured guys or demoted former closers. At least, this works in public leagues, since some people forget to change the Yahoo autopicks.
Let's look at my drafts so far.
28 Innings Later (5x5 roto auction league, $280 budget)
Catcher - A.J. Pierzynski - $1
Catcher is an ugly position. There are about two or three who actually help you, and the rest are just an exercise in hoping you don't get burned with a low batting average while you scramble for as many RBIs as you can get. The problem is that the top catchers aren't far enough ahead of their peers to justify where they are usually drafted and how much people pay for them, and there is essentially no dropoff from a middle tier catcher to a bottom feeder. Thus, I get Pierzynski a lot, since he's usually about the 12th or 13th guy in a lot of managers' minds. I refuse to spend more than a dollar on a catcher, though I could have afforded it this year, as I came in $10 under budget.
1b - Ryan Howard - $41 and Adrian Gonzalez - $9
First base is my favorite fantasy position, and it's probably the most underrated, still. A lot of owners see it as a deep position and assume they can get someone decent like Ryan Garko relatively cheap, but what they forget is that first base is the strongest position, and therefore it is the best choice for filling your utility spot. Anything else, and you sacrifice stats.
Both of these players were keepers for me, which explains why I let Howard's price tag get so high. Since the entire league had to pick five keepers, and all keepers get a $5 raise, I treated my keepers' values as if they were last year's (especially since our budgets were raised this year to $280).
Howard is far and away one of my favorite players, and I think he has probably the best chance of anyone to hit 50 HR this year. Throw in a nice RBI total, an average in the upper .200 range, and decent runs scored, and you have one of the best players in the fantasy game. It doesn't hurt that he's easy to root for in real life because of his high OBP and SLG combo, so you don't have to feel slightly dirty like I did when I cheered Juan Pierre's overpriced contract.
I drafted Adrian Gonzalez specifically to keep him this year. I took him with my last pick in 2007, when no one had any money left, under the assumption that I'd keep him for cheap this year. That seemed to work out pretty well, as Gonzo turned in an excellent performance all around. I expect him to get even better this year, with high-end possibilities around .300 with 30 HR.
2b - Chone Figgins - $24
The last of the good second basemen to be taken this year, Chone Figgins was dynamite in 2007. I was surprised I got him for such a good price. I often dig myself a hole with the steals category, but I do not intend to let that happen this year. Figgins stole a bundle last year despite missing some time with injury. What he also did was hit over .300 and provide a fair number of RBIs for a steals player. That's something that should not be overlooked. Figgins won't hurt me in any category, and he will move me safely into the middle in steals. He's regularly one of the most underrated players in fantasy. I already have someone trying to trade for him, though it'll take a lot to pry him away from me.
3b - David Wright - $35 and Kevin Kouzmanoff - $6
Another keeper. I got him for ridiculously cheap last year, so I couldn't help but make him one of my more obvious keepers this year. (Amazinly, there is one that is even better, coming later on.) I knew coming into 2007 that I wanted at least one of the top third basemen, and I settled on Wright over Cabrera. That seems to have been a good choice.
Wright will be strong in all five categories. He's what Alfonso Soriano wishes he could be.
Kouzmanoff fills my utility slot well enough (with Adrian Gonzalez going to corner infield). I took him late, and he was probably the best hitter left at the time. I'll be happy enough if he hits .280 with 20 HR, but his upside runs higher than that.
SS - Stephen Drew - $6 and Felipe Lopez - $1
So far, my offense has been deadly. Here is where things get a little weaker. Stephen Drew will be lucky to hit for a decent average with 20 HR, but he is young and talented, and more importantly he is not as bad as he looked last year. He may be more an investment for the future than anything else, but I've never really had good shortstops, so he's good enough. Last year, I had Orlando Cabrera instead, so it's not a huge step down.
Lopez is similar. He had a bad year last year, but I expect him to improve. No one else wanted him this year, so I guess I'm the only one willing to gamble on him. If I get burned, I'm only out a dollar.
OF - Barry Bonds - $1 and Jose Guillen - $1 and Juan Pierre - $8 and Colby Rasmus - $1 and Corey Patterson - $1
Five outfielders for $12. Not bad, even if Pierre and Guillen are the only ones with guaranteed jobs. If Bonds plays this year, he's worth a buck. Patterson played much better than $1 last year, and this year he's in a hitter's park with a manager who loves to steal bases. Guillen is solid enough for his price, and he's been good before. Rasmus is a more interesting pick with Jim Edmonds traded to San Diego. Juan Pierre is great in fantasy if awful in real life. Pierre, David Wright, and Chone Figgins will give me lots and lots of steals points.
Clearly, I had to be stingy with outfield money to pay for my expensive people elsewhere, but I think I managed enough talent to pull me through the year if I work hard enough in free agency to replace the parts that break.
Starting pitchers
Jake Peavy - $20
My most obvious keeper. I still can't believe I got this guy for $15 last year, but I'm not complaining. The reigning NL Cy Young winner will give me wins, strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP this year, all while costing relatively little for a pitcher of his stature.
Brandon Webb - $27
Maybe I reached a little for him, but probably not. If he is close to last year, he's going to be one of the best in the game, and he's going to be a major reason I dominate the pitching stats this year.
John Lackey - $23
Another top tier starter. Some fantasy experts say loading up on pitching is a bad thing, but I disagree. Some of my most dominating teams have been heavy on pitching. Often people spend 1/3 of their budget on pitchers and 2/3 on offense, but I spent exactly $135 on each this year, and I am fairly happy with my team.
John Maine - $6
A keeper if there ever was one. Last year, I decided he would be a better version of Jason Schmidt. It turned out that was more true than I guessed, with Schmidt falling apart and Maine pitching like a Cy Young candidate for most of the year. Plus, I got Maine for only $1, while Schmidt cost a bit more. This year, Schmidt went undrafted, while Maine is the gift that keeps on giving.
Ted Lilly - $7
Finally living up to his potential in the NL. Not as good as last year, but not as bad as some of this previous years. He should fill out the back end of my rotation nicely.
Joe Blanton - $1
He strikes more people out now than he used to, so I am satisfied with taking Blanton as a speculative $1 pick.
Ervin Santana - $1
Another speculative pick. I didn't really want him, but I ended up stuck with him after my $1 opening bid never attracted any competition.
Relief pitchers
Takashi Saito - $21
I paid too much for him, but if he stays healthy, he'll be a big help, especially in the WHIP category (and saves, of course). His WHIP last year was under .80, and merely good pitchers never achieve that level for a whole season.
Jason Isringhausen - $8
Another bit of common fantasy expert advice is to let closers slide a little in drafts and then worry about them in free agency whenever Cincinnati or Tampa Bay gets somebody new. I think this is a mistake; I always do better with teams packed with middle to upper tier relievers. Secretly, they help your team by providing saves along with the rate stats (including strikeout rates) of top starters. Thanks to all the fantasy baseball advice columns out there today, relievers are probably the second most underrated class of player in the game behind first basemen.
Joakim Soria - $7
Undervalued relievers are even better. A lot of people haven't noticed that the Royals actually have a good closer now. Those who follow the team are probably too shell-shocked at the emergence of Gil Meche to notice. Soria will be a solid addition to any roster this year, and he should be more stable than Royals closers have been in the past if only because he's the best they've had in a long time.
B.J. Ryan - $13
Speaking of underrated closers, how about B.J. Ryan? He probably earned some of the lack of trust people seem to have for him this year (drafted after pick 250 in Yahoo this year), but if he's healthy, he's going to be good. Anybody remember 2006?
Jeremy Accardo - $1
It still helps to have Ryan's backup, though.
That makes the full roster look like this:
c - A.J. Pierzynski
1b - Ryan Howard
2b - Chone Figgins
3b - David Wright
ss - Stephen Drew
mi - Felipe Lopez
ci - Adrian Gonzalez
lf - Colby Rasmus
cf - Juan Pierre
rf - Jose Guillen
of - Corey Patterson
util - Kevin Kouzmanoff
bn - Barry Bonds
sp - Jake Peavy
sp - Brandon Webb
sp - John Lackey
sp - John Maine
sp - Ted Lilly
sp - Joe Blanton
sp - Ervin Santana
rp - Takashi Saito
rp - Jason Isringhausen
rp - Joakim Soria
rp - B.J. Ryan
rp - Jeremy Accardo
My infield is mad crazy good, and my pitching is among the best I have ever drafted. If my outfield holds up at all, or if I can find some free agents to fill in, I should be a lock to finish in the top half of the league, maybe even contending for the title. I've never finished below 4th in this league before, and I hope not to start this year.
Edit: I think I mistyped my LJ-Cut
I'm getting a slow start this year, but that is intentional. I decided to wait until Spring Training was almost over to make sure I didn't draft too many injured guys or demoted former closers. At least, this works in public leagues, since some people forget to change the Yahoo autopicks.
Let's look at my drafts so far.
28 Innings Later (5x5 roto auction league, $280 budget)
Catcher - A.J. Pierzynski - $1
Catcher is an ugly position. There are about two or three who actually help you, and the rest are just an exercise in hoping you don't get burned with a low batting average while you scramble for as many RBIs as you can get. The problem is that the top catchers aren't far enough ahead of their peers to justify where they are usually drafted and how much people pay for them, and there is essentially no dropoff from a middle tier catcher to a bottom feeder. Thus, I get Pierzynski a lot, since he's usually about the 12th or 13th guy in a lot of managers' minds. I refuse to spend more than a dollar on a catcher, though I could have afforded it this year, as I came in $10 under budget.
1b - Ryan Howard - $41 and Adrian Gonzalez - $9
First base is my favorite fantasy position, and it's probably the most underrated, still. A lot of owners see it as a deep position and assume they can get someone decent like Ryan Garko relatively cheap, but what they forget is that first base is the strongest position, and therefore it is the best choice for filling your utility spot. Anything else, and you sacrifice stats.
Both of these players were keepers for me, which explains why I let Howard's price tag get so high. Since the entire league had to pick five keepers, and all keepers get a $5 raise, I treated my keepers' values as if they were last year's (especially since our budgets were raised this year to $280).
Howard is far and away one of my favorite players, and I think he has probably the best chance of anyone to hit 50 HR this year. Throw in a nice RBI total, an average in the upper .200 range, and decent runs scored, and you have one of the best players in the fantasy game. It doesn't hurt that he's easy to root for in real life because of his high OBP and SLG combo, so you don't have to feel slightly dirty like I did when I cheered Juan Pierre's overpriced contract.
I drafted Adrian Gonzalez specifically to keep him this year. I took him with my last pick in 2007, when no one had any money left, under the assumption that I'd keep him for cheap this year. That seemed to work out pretty well, as Gonzo turned in an excellent performance all around. I expect him to get even better this year, with high-end possibilities around .300 with 30 HR.
2b - Chone Figgins - $24
The last of the good second basemen to be taken this year, Chone Figgins was dynamite in 2007. I was surprised I got him for such a good price. I often dig myself a hole with the steals category, but I do not intend to let that happen this year. Figgins stole a bundle last year despite missing some time with injury. What he also did was hit over .300 and provide a fair number of RBIs for a steals player. That's something that should not be overlooked. Figgins won't hurt me in any category, and he will move me safely into the middle in steals. He's regularly one of the most underrated players in fantasy. I already have someone trying to trade for him, though it'll take a lot to pry him away from me.
3b - David Wright - $35 and Kevin Kouzmanoff - $6
Another keeper. I got him for ridiculously cheap last year, so I couldn't help but make him one of my more obvious keepers this year. (Amazinly, there is one that is even better, coming later on.) I knew coming into 2007 that I wanted at least one of the top third basemen, and I settled on Wright over Cabrera. That seems to have been a good choice.
Wright will be strong in all five categories. He's what Alfonso Soriano wishes he could be.
Kouzmanoff fills my utility slot well enough (with Adrian Gonzalez going to corner infield). I took him late, and he was probably the best hitter left at the time. I'll be happy enough if he hits .280 with 20 HR, but his upside runs higher than that.
SS - Stephen Drew - $6 and Felipe Lopez - $1
So far, my offense has been deadly. Here is where things get a little weaker. Stephen Drew will be lucky to hit for a decent average with 20 HR, but he is young and talented, and more importantly he is not as bad as he looked last year. He may be more an investment for the future than anything else, but I've never really had good shortstops, so he's good enough. Last year, I had Orlando Cabrera instead, so it's not a huge step down.
Lopez is similar. He had a bad year last year, but I expect him to improve. No one else wanted him this year, so I guess I'm the only one willing to gamble on him. If I get burned, I'm only out a dollar.
OF - Barry Bonds - $1 and Jose Guillen - $1 and Juan Pierre - $8 and Colby Rasmus - $1 and Corey Patterson - $1
Five outfielders for $12. Not bad, even if Pierre and Guillen are the only ones with guaranteed jobs. If Bonds plays this year, he's worth a buck. Patterson played much better than $1 last year, and this year he's in a hitter's park with a manager who loves to steal bases. Guillen is solid enough for his price, and he's been good before. Rasmus is a more interesting pick with Jim Edmonds traded to San Diego. Juan Pierre is great in fantasy if awful in real life. Pierre, David Wright, and Chone Figgins will give me lots and lots of steals points.
Clearly, I had to be stingy with outfield money to pay for my expensive people elsewhere, but I think I managed enough talent to pull me through the year if I work hard enough in free agency to replace the parts that break.
Starting pitchers
Jake Peavy - $20
My most obvious keeper. I still can't believe I got this guy for $15 last year, but I'm not complaining. The reigning NL Cy Young winner will give me wins, strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP this year, all while costing relatively little for a pitcher of his stature.
Brandon Webb - $27
Maybe I reached a little for him, but probably not. If he is close to last year, he's going to be one of the best in the game, and he's going to be a major reason I dominate the pitching stats this year.
John Lackey - $23
Another top tier starter. Some fantasy experts say loading up on pitching is a bad thing, but I disagree. Some of my most dominating teams have been heavy on pitching. Often people spend 1/3 of their budget on pitchers and 2/3 on offense, but I spent exactly $135 on each this year, and I am fairly happy with my team.
John Maine - $6
A keeper if there ever was one. Last year, I decided he would be a better version of Jason Schmidt. It turned out that was more true than I guessed, with Schmidt falling apart and Maine pitching like a Cy Young candidate for most of the year. Plus, I got Maine for only $1, while Schmidt cost a bit more. This year, Schmidt went undrafted, while Maine is the gift that keeps on giving.
Ted Lilly - $7
Finally living up to his potential in the NL. Not as good as last year, but not as bad as some of this previous years. He should fill out the back end of my rotation nicely.
Joe Blanton - $1
He strikes more people out now than he used to, so I am satisfied with taking Blanton as a speculative $1 pick.
Ervin Santana - $1
Another speculative pick. I didn't really want him, but I ended up stuck with him after my $1 opening bid never attracted any competition.
Relief pitchers
Takashi Saito - $21
I paid too much for him, but if he stays healthy, he'll be a big help, especially in the WHIP category (and saves, of course). His WHIP last year was under .80, and merely good pitchers never achieve that level for a whole season.
Jason Isringhausen - $8
Another bit of common fantasy expert advice is to let closers slide a little in drafts and then worry about them in free agency whenever Cincinnati or Tampa Bay gets somebody new. I think this is a mistake; I always do better with teams packed with middle to upper tier relievers. Secretly, they help your team by providing saves along with the rate stats (including strikeout rates) of top starters. Thanks to all the fantasy baseball advice columns out there today, relievers are probably the second most underrated class of player in the game behind first basemen.
Joakim Soria - $7
Undervalued relievers are even better. A lot of people haven't noticed that the Royals actually have a good closer now. Those who follow the team are probably too shell-shocked at the emergence of Gil Meche to notice. Soria will be a solid addition to any roster this year, and he should be more stable than Royals closers have been in the past if only because he's the best they've had in a long time.
B.J. Ryan - $13
Speaking of underrated closers, how about B.J. Ryan? He probably earned some of the lack of trust people seem to have for him this year (drafted after pick 250 in Yahoo this year), but if he's healthy, he's going to be good. Anybody remember 2006?
Jeremy Accardo - $1
It still helps to have Ryan's backup, though.
That makes the full roster look like this:
c - A.J. Pierzynski
1b - Ryan Howard
2b - Chone Figgins
3b - David Wright
ss - Stephen Drew
mi - Felipe Lopez
ci - Adrian Gonzalez
lf - Colby Rasmus
cf - Juan Pierre
rf - Jose Guillen
of - Corey Patterson
util - Kevin Kouzmanoff
bn - Barry Bonds
sp - Jake Peavy
sp - Brandon Webb
sp - John Lackey
sp - John Maine
sp - Ted Lilly
sp - Joe Blanton
sp - Ervin Santana
rp - Takashi Saito
rp - Jason Isringhausen
rp - Joakim Soria
rp - B.J. Ryan
rp - Jeremy Accardo
My infield is mad crazy good, and my pitching is among the best I have ever drafted. If my outfield holds up at all, or if I can find some free agents to fill in, I should be a lock to finish in the top half of the league, maybe even contending for the title. I've never finished below 4th in this league before, and I hope not to start this year.