10:1 was a very liberal estimate. Truthfully, it's probably closer to 25:1
I dunno how I would quantify it, but it might go like this:
You figure that out of 72 poets, 20 are just plain outmatched and will get knocked around in their first bout. Another 10 cats who you might consider contenders won't put enough emphasis on the 1 minute/2 minute round and get beat up to an unrecoverable degree. Another 10 will probably be working against a sizable location disadvantage. (Berkeley is a tough place sometimes- especially for certain "styles") So that puts me at a realistic 32:1 and I figure I can beat 7 more- then again, I'm basing all this on my experience from 2007 and what I heard about last year.
Really, anything can happen. We all know this. I know that at least half of the field can outwrite/outperform me. The biggest thing I have going for me is the experience and the adjusted confidence from making Finals my last time out.
Fuck. Now I'm thinking about this. I just threw out a number....
That's flattering, but really, you don't need me. You're already a better writer and just as good as a performer.
I just like strategy. I'm the type of nerd who had no choice but to follow sports growing up. (Thanks, dad!) Of course, I didn't tell anybody I only liked the nerdery side (strategy, gameplans, etc) but it has served me well in this fake sport of ours.
No, that's what I mean. Strategy and shit. I do my best, but I have no head for numbers. I'm the kind of person who plays poker based on "feelings," which is why I don't gamble.
The fucked up part is that slam is a way bigger gamble than even poker. Ultimately, you can do things to help your odds, but the results are so completely unpredictable and the odds change every three minutes.
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I dunno how I would quantify it, but it might go like this:
You figure that out of 72 poets, 20 are just plain outmatched and will get knocked around in their first bout. Another 10 cats who you might consider contenders won't put enough emphasis on the 1 minute/2 minute round and get beat up to an unrecoverable degree. Another 10 will probably be working against a sizable location disadvantage. (Berkeley is a tough place sometimes- especially for certain "styles") So that puts me at a realistic 32:1 and I figure I can beat 7 more- then again, I'm basing all this on my experience from 2007 and what I heard about last year.
Really, anything can happen. We all know this. I know that at least half of the field can outwrite/outperform me. The biggest thing I have going for me is the experience and the adjusted confidence from making Finals my last time out.
Fuck. Now I'm thinking about this. I just threw out a number....
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I just like strategy. I'm the type of nerd who had no choice but to follow sports growing up. (Thanks, dad!) Of course, I didn't tell anybody I only liked the nerdery side (strategy, gameplans, etc) but it has served me well in this fake sport of ours.
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But, yeah. I like helping.
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