Packers in the Playoffs?
I have officially spent way too much time this evening, after the ugliest victory I've seen in quite some time, figuring out if and how the Packers can wind up in the playoffs. With the win over the Vikings, the Packers are 7-8 (6-5 in NFC). The top five teams in the NFC are 8-6 or better and cannot be caught by the Packers. The Packers, therefore, are playing for the #6, wildcard spot. Here's the standings of everyone else mathematically in the running for that spot. I am assuming that the top 5 spots will remain locked and Atlanta or New York won't go above slot six. If they do, then top wildcard team they displace takes spot 6 since the Packers can't catch them.
Atlanta 7-7 (5-5 in NFC)
NY Giants 7-7 (6-4 in NFC)
Green Bay 7-8 (6-5 in NFC)
San Francisco 6-8 (5-6 in NFC)
Carolina 6-8 (4-6 in NFC)
St. Louis 6-8 (4-6 in NFC)
First things first... the Packers must win their final game, an away game in Chicago. This is possible only because Chicago has clinched home field advantage in the playoffs and they may choose to play their 2nd string most of the game so to avoid injuries. Moreover, the Bears have suffered some recent defensive injuries.
That places the Packers at 8-8 (7-5 in NFC)
If there is an 8-8 tie for the last spot in the playoffs, the tiebreakers go in this order: 1)head-to-head play, 2) total record in NFC, 3) total record in games in common if at least 4 exist, and a bunch more that won't be gotten to.
If SF or Carolina runs the table, Packers win on NFC tiebreaker. If St. Louis runs the table, they have a head-to-head win against us but that may not matter if there are 3+ tied teams. I'll get to that scenario later.
Atalanta and the NY Giants each need 1 loss of 2 games to force tie breakers. 2 losses takes them out of contention. If the Falcons lose (and they have a rough final 2 games) we beat them with the NFC total record.
If the NY Giants end up at 8-8, both them and the Packers will have 7-5 NFC records and the next tie-breaker comes in. The two teams have played: Philadelphia, Seattle, Chicago and New Orleans. If the Packers get to 8-8, their total record between them will be 1-4. If the Giants end up 8-8 they will either be 1-4 or 2-3, depending on if their loss came this week against New Orleans or the final week against Washington. If they both end up at 1-4 when playing teams in common, the next tie-breaker is "strength of schedule"... I have no idea how the NFL calculates that. The bottom line... GB needs New York Giants losses.
If 2 or more of the 5 possible teams gets to 8-8 it won't effect anything unless St. Louis is part of the mix. If somehow only Green Bay and St. Louis were 8-8, St. Loius would take our spot because they have a head to head win. If Green Bay, St. Louis, and another team are 8-8 (except San Fran)... Green Bay will not be eliminated via the head-to-head record tiebreaker since Green Bay will not have lost to both teams and St. Louis will not have beaten both teams. In that scenario St. Louis is eliminated with their inferior NFC conference record and Green Bay goes on to the other competitor.
To get into the playoffs the following MUST happen...
Green Bay defeats Chicago, Atlanta loses 1 remaining game, NY Giants lose to New Orleans
AND THEN
The Packers win the tiebreaker with New York I can't predict via ESPN online
OR
The NY Giants also lose to Washington and St. Louis loses or ties 1 game
OR
The NY Giants also lose to Washington and either Atlanta or Carolina also ends up 8-8
If you don't have a splitting headache good for you. I actually accomplished something with these calculations. The preliminary outlook on option 1 is not good since the Giants appear, at first glance, to have won most of their games by larger margins than the Packers. If it is measuring combined margin of victory within the common games, the combined margin of the future Packers' win over Chicago and Giants' loss to New Orleans must be at least 27 points. That is a large margin. I think the Packers probably need to look for the Giants losing 2 games. So, if the Giants beat New Orleans this Sunday, the Packers cannot make it into the Playoffs because they will lose the "games in common" tie-breaker. If Giants win at all... the odds of a Packer's playoff birth are very low but possible.
Atlanta 7-7 (5-5 in NFC)
NY Giants 7-7 (6-4 in NFC)
Green Bay 7-8 (6-5 in NFC)
San Francisco 6-8 (5-6 in NFC)
Carolina 6-8 (4-6 in NFC)
St. Louis 6-8 (4-6 in NFC)
First things first... the Packers must win their final game, an away game in Chicago. This is possible only because Chicago has clinched home field advantage in the playoffs and they may choose to play their 2nd string most of the game so to avoid injuries. Moreover, the Bears have suffered some recent defensive injuries.
That places the Packers at 8-8 (7-5 in NFC)
If there is an 8-8 tie for the last spot in the playoffs, the tiebreakers go in this order: 1)head-to-head play, 2) total record in NFC, 3) total record in games in common if at least 4 exist, and a bunch more that won't be gotten to.
If SF or Carolina runs the table, Packers win on NFC tiebreaker. If St. Louis runs the table, they have a head-to-head win against us but that may not matter if there are 3+ tied teams. I'll get to that scenario later.
Atalanta and the NY Giants each need 1 loss of 2 games to force tie breakers. 2 losses takes them out of contention. If the Falcons lose (and they have a rough final 2 games) we beat them with the NFC total record.
If the NY Giants end up at 8-8, both them and the Packers will have 7-5 NFC records and the next tie-breaker comes in. The two teams have played: Philadelphia, Seattle, Chicago and New Orleans. If the Packers get to 8-8, their total record between them will be 1-4. If the Giants end up 8-8 they will either be 1-4 or 2-3, depending on if their loss came this week against New Orleans or the final week against Washington. If they both end up at 1-4 when playing teams in common, the next tie-breaker is "strength of schedule"... I have no idea how the NFL calculates that. The bottom line... GB needs New York Giants losses.
If 2 or more of the 5 possible teams gets to 8-8 it won't effect anything unless St. Louis is part of the mix. If somehow only Green Bay and St. Louis were 8-8, St. Loius would take our spot because they have a head to head win. If Green Bay, St. Louis, and another team are 8-8 (except San Fran)... Green Bay will not be eliminated via the head-to-head record tiebreaker since Green Bay will not have lost to both teams and St. Louis will not have beaten both teams. In that scenario St. Louis is eliminated with their inferior NFC conference record and Green Bay goes on to the other competitor.
To get into the playoffs the following MUST happen...
Green Bay defeats Chicago, Atlanta loses 1 remaining game, NY Giants lose to New Orleans
AND THEN
The Packers win the tiebreaker with New York I can't predict via ESPN online
OR
The NY Giants also lose to Washington and St. Louis loses or ties 1 game
OR
The NY Giants also lose to Washington and either Atlanta or Carolina also ends up 8-8
If you don't have a splitting headache good for you. I actually accomplished something with these calculations. The preliminary outlook on option 1 is not good since the Giants appear, at first glance, to have won most of their games by larger margins than the Packers. If it is measuring combined margin of victory within the common games, the combined margin of the future Packers' win over Chicago and Giants' loss to New Orleans must be at least 27 points. That is a large margin. I think the Packers probably need to look for the Giants losing 2 games. So, if the Giants beat New Orleans this Sunday, the Packers cannot make it into the Playoffs because they will lose the "games in common" tie-breaker. If Giants win at all... the odds of a Packer's playoff birth are very low but possible.