New Iowa stuff:
The latest Des Moines Register likely voters poll is out, and here’s the numbers from my number-crunching.
My reflections after the cut:
- Biden can’t hope to get anywhere, but he’s looking better for all of his recent commentary on real solutions for the big problems, etc.
- The smallest-fry in Iowa are getting cut out of the picture; I think that’s related to Iowa’s Democratic caucus approach of demanding that any caucus meeting group has to be at least ‘viable’. Democrats want a sure winner.
- Clinton is doing well with the older crowd, most likely to show at the caucuses, and with people looking for someone with a track record, tough and smart. It’s still a race, dependant on turnout, but hers to lose.
- Edwards’ failure to seal the deal with unions is hurting him in union households, as is his image as a rich dude. He’s still strong with poorer people and men. People see him as honest and having strong beliefs.
- Obama is seen best for honesty, vision and charisma, with the young and independents (who don’t necessarily turn out as well for the caucus), but his big negative seems to be his inexperience.
- The Democratic undecideds are still high; most of the movement is towards who the person involved seems to think would make it all the way to the White House. 55% said they could still change their minds from candidate A to another.
- Republicans are still all over the place. Huckabee has made great strides forward in particular. Brownback is boring the pants off of everyone. Nearly 3/4ths of the Republicans could change their minds. Nobody’s happy with the choices.
- There’s still a lot of stuff bouncing around in the minors - a lot of this, in my opinion, are the hardest of hard-shell sorts looking for someone to go for that will spout their particular hard line and make it stick. The majors continue to pander to this end of the spectrum, but the people going for the minors at this point are those who trust none of the majors, feeling like none of them really are for serious hard line stuff. Doing all the hard-liner pandering, of course, is going to hurt them with the general voting population. Right now, they don’t think that’s their problem.
- Most of the movement towards Fred Thompson is likely to have come right off of Giuliani and McCain. I think McCain’s hit his bottom and Thompson his top.