That T-P story I mentioned, in full (long)
> By MARK SCHLEIFSTEIN
> And JOHN MCQUAID
> c.2002 Newhouse News Service
> NEW ORLEANS _ The line of splintered planks, trash and seaweed scattered along the slope of this city's hurricane levees in late September 1998 marked more than the wake of Hurricane Georges. It measured the slender margin separating the city from mass destruction.
> The debris, largely the remains of about 70 fishing camps smashed by the waves of a storm surge more than 7 feet above sea level, showed that Georges, a Category 2 storm that only grazed New Orleans, had pushed waves to within a foot of the top of the levees.
> A stronger storm on a slightly different course _ such as the path Georges was on just 16 hours before landfall _ could have realized emergency officials' worst-case scenario: hundreds of billions of gallons of water pouring over the levees into an area averaging 5 feet below sea level with no natural means of drainage.
> That would turn the city and the east bank of Jefferson Parish into a lake as much as 30 feet deep, fouled with chemicals and waste from ruined septic systems, businesses and homes. Such a flood could trap hundreds of thousands of people in buildings and in vehicles. At the same time, high winds and tornadoes would tear at everything left standing. Between 25,000 and 100,000 people would die, said John Clizbe, national vice president for disaster services with the American Red Cross.
> Hundreds of thousands would be left homeless, and it would take months to dry out the area and begin to make it livable. But there wouldn't be much for residents to come home to. The local economy would be in ruins.
> The scene has been played out for years in computer models and emergency-operations simulations. Officials at the local, state and national level are convinced the risk is genuine and are devising plans for alleviating the aftermath of a disaster that could leave the city uninhabitable for six months or more. The Army Corps of Engineers has begun a study to see whether the levees should be raised to counter the threat. But officials say that right now, nothing can stop ``the big one.''
> Like coastal Bangladesh, where typhoons killed 100,000 and 300,000 villagers, respectively, in two horrific storms in 1970 and 1991, the New Orleans area lies in a low, flat coastal area. Unlike Bangladesh, New Orleans has hurricane levees that create a bowl with the bottom dipping lower than the bottom of adjacent Lake Pontchartrain. Though providing protection from weaker storms, the levees also would trap any water that gets inside _ by breach, overtopping or torrential downpour _ in a catastrophic storm.
> ``Filling the bowl'' is the worst potential scenario for a natural disaster in the United States, emergency officials say. The Red Cross' projected death toll dwarfs estimates of 14,000 dead from a major earthquake along the New Madrid, Mo., fault, and 4,500 dead from a similar catastrophic earthquake hitting San Francisco, the next two deadliest disasters on the agency's list.
> The projected death and destruction eclipse almost any other natural disaster that people paid to think about catastrophes can dream up. And the risks are significant, especially over the long term. In a given year, for example, the corps says the risk of the hurricane levees being topped is less than 1 in 300. But over the life of a 30-year mortgage, statistically that risk approaches 9 percent.
> In the past year, Federal Emergency Management Agency officials have begun working with state and local agencies to devise plans on what to do if a Category 5 hurricane strikes New Orleans.>
> Shortly after he took office, FEMA Director Joe Allbaugh ordered aides to examine the nation's potential major catastrophes, including the New Orleans scenario.
> ``Catastrophic disasters are best defined in that they totally outstrip local and state resources, which is why the federal government needs to play a role,'' Allbaugh said. ``There are a half-dozen or so contingencies around the nation that cause me great concern, and one of them is right there (in New Orleans).''
> In concert with state and local officials, FEMA is studying evacuation procedures, postdisaster rescue strategies, temporary housing and technical issues such as how to pump out water trapped inside the levees, said Michael Lowder, chief of policy and planning in FEMA's Readiness, Response and Recovery directorate. A preliminary report should be completed in the next few months.
> With computer modeling of hurricanes and storm surges, disaster experts have developed a detailed picture of how a storm could push water over the levees and into the city.
> New Orleans and its largest suburban areas are sandwiched between Lake Pontchartrain to the north and Mississippi River to the south. Levees completely surround inhabited areas. Channels connect the lake to the Gulf of Mexico, meaning hurricanes can push massive amounts of water from the Gulf into the lakebed and ultimately over the levees.
> ``The worst case is a hurricane moving in from due south of the city,'' said Joseph Suhayda, a Louisiana State University scientist who is studying ways to limit hurricane damage in the New Orleans area. Suhayda has developed a computer simulation of the flooding from such a storm.
> On that track, winds on the outer edges of a huge storm system will be pushing water into Lake Pontchartrain for two days before landfall, raising it 5 to 8 feet.
> Pushed by winds from 50 to 100 mph, generating waves 5 to 10 feet high, the flood waters will start breaking over the levee.
> ``All of a sudden you'll start seeing flowing water. It'll look like a weir, water just pouring over the top,'' Suhayda said. There would be no stopping or slowing it; pumping systems would be overwhelmed and submerged in a matter of hours.
> Ninety percent of the structures in the city are likely to be destroyed by the combination of water and wind accompanying a Category 5 storm, said Robert Eichorn, former director of the New Orleans Office of Emergency Preparedness. The LSU Hurricane Center surveyed numerous large public buildings in Jefferson Parish in hopes of identifying those that might withstand such catastrophic winds. They found none.
> Amid this maelstrom, the estimated 200,000 or more people left behind in an evacuation will be struggling to survive. Some will be housed at the Superdome, the designated shelter in New Orleans for people too sick or infirm to leave the city. Others will end up in last-minute emergency refuges that will offer minimal safety. But many will simply be on their own, in homes or looking for high ground.
> Thousands will drown while trapped in homes or cars by rising water. Others will be washed away or crushed by debris. Survivors will end up trapped on roofs, in buildings or on high ground surrounded by water, with no means of escape and little food or fresh water, perhaps for several days.
> ``If you look at the World Trade Center collapsing, it'll be like that, but add water,'' Eichorn said. ``There will be debris flying around, and you're going to be in the water with snakes, rodents, nutria and fish from the lake. It's not going to be nice.''
> Mobilized by FEMA, search and rescue teams from across the nation will converge on the city. Volunteer teams of doctors, nurses and emergency medical technicians that were pre-positioned in Monroe or Shreveport to the north before the storm will move to the area, said Henry Delgado, regional emergency coordinator for the U.S. Public Health Service.>
> But just getting into the city will be a problem for rescuers. Approaches by road may be washed out.
> Stranded survivors will have a dangerous wait even after the storm passes. Emergency officials worry that energized electrical wires could pose a threat of electrocution and that the floodwater could become contaminated with sewage and with toxic chemicals from industrial plants and backyard sheds. Gasoline, diesel fuel and oil leaking from underground storage tanks at service stations may also become a problem, corps officials say.
> A variety of creatures _ rats, mice and nutria, poisonous snakes and alligators, fire ants, mosquitoes and abandoned cats and dogs _ will be searching for the same dry accommodations that people are using.
> Contaminated food or water used for bathing, drinking and cooking could cause illnesses including salmonella, botulism, typhoid and hepatitis. Outbreaks of mosquito-borne dengue fever and encephalitis are likely, said Dr. James Diaz, director of the department of public health and preventive medicine at LSU School of Medicine in New Orleans.
> New Orleans would face the future with most of its housing stock and historic structures destroyed. Hotels, office buildings and infrastructure would be heavily damaged. Tens of thousands of people would be dead and many survivors homeless and shellshocked. Rebuilding would be a formidable challenge even with a generous federal aid package.
> ``You wouldn't have an infrastructure, that's for sure,'' said Hucky Purpera, natural and technical hazards chief for the Louisiana Office of Emergency Preparedness. ``What would you be going back to? Residents might be going back in, but would businesses rebuild They'll make decisions based on what's best for the company. And if you do decide to rebuild, do you rebuild there? A lot of that we don't know.''
> But it's unlikely the city would be completely abandoned, economists and disaster experts say. Most cities do eventually recover from major disasters _ though no precedent exists for the wholesale destruction of ``filling the bowl.''
> No single storm would wipe out the entire New Orleans area. The city's location on the Mississippi River near the Gulf of Mexico would still be strategic for trade. Industrial plants upriver would remain largely intact.
> ``It's always recoverable. People own that property. They are not going to walk away. If someone does walk away, there will be a bank that will foreclose and ultimately resell that space,'' said Mary Comerio, a professor of architecture at the University of California, Berkeley, and author of a book on postdisaster reconstruction. ``It will all be at fire-sale prices, and it will end up a different place, owned by different people.''
> After a Category 4 hurricane destroyed Galveston, Texas, in 1900, the entire island was raised 7 feet before rebuilding began. To avoid a repeat catastrophe, officials would likely consider how to hurricane-proof the city, or even think about moving it.
> ``We've not tried to tackle that yet,'' said Lowder, the FEMA official. ``What's the best way to _ I won't say rebuild _ but where do we go from here? How can we make sure that our recovery doesn't put things back the exact same way they were?''
> And JOHN MCQUAID
> c.2002 Newhouse News Service
> NEW ORLEANS _ The line of splintered planks, trash and seaweed scattered along the slope of this city's hurricane levees in late September 1998 marked more than the wake of Hurricane Georges. It measured the slender margin separating the city from mass destruction.
> The debris, largely the remains of about 70 fishing camps smashed by the waves of a storm surge more than 7 feet above sea level, showed that Georges, a Category 2 storm that only grazed New Orleans, had pushed waves to within a foot of the top of the levees.
> A stronger storm on a slightly different course _ such as the path Georges was on just 16 hours before landfall _ could have realized emergency officials' worst-case scenario: hundreds of billions of gallons of water pouring over the levees into an area averaging 5 feet below sea level with no natural means of drainage.
> That would turn the city and the east bank of Jefferson Parish into a lake as much as 30 feet deep, fouled with chemicals and waste from ruined septic systems, businesses and homes. Such a flood could trap hundreds of thousands of people in buildings and in vehicles. At the same time, high winds and tornadoes would tear at everything left standing. Between 25,000 and 100,000 people would die, said John Clizbe, national vice president for disaster services with the American Red Cross.
> Hundreds of thousands would be left homeless, and it would take months to dry out the area and begin to make it livable. But there wouldn't be much for residents to come home to. The local economy would be in ruins.
> The scene has been played out for years in computer models and emergency-operations simulations. Officials at the local, state and national level are convinced the risk is genuine and are devising plans for alleviating the aftermath of a disaster that could leave the city uninhabitable for six months or more. The Army Corps of Engineers has begun a study to see whether the levees should be raised to counter the threat. But officials say that right now, nothing can stop ``the big one.''
> Like coastal Bangladesh, where typhoons killed 100,000 and 300,000 villagers, respectively, in two horrific storms in 1970 and 1991, the New Orleans area lies in a low, flat coastal area. Unlike Bangladesh, New Orleans has hurricane levees that create a bowl with the bottom dipping lower than the bottom of adjacent Lake Pontchartrain. Though providing protection from weaker storms, the levees also would trap any water that gets inside _ by breach, overtopping or torrential downpour _ in a catastrophic storm.
> ``Filling the bowl'' is the worst potential scenario for a natural disaster in the United States, emergency officials say. The Red Cross' projected death toll dwarfs estimates of 14,000 dead from a major earthquake along the New Madrid, Mo., fault, and 4,500 dead from a similar catastrophic earthquake hitting San Francisco, the next two deadliest disasters on the agency's list.
> The projected death and destruction eclipse almost any other natural disaster that people paid to think about catastrophes can dream up. And the risks are significant, especially over the long term. In a given year, for example, the corps says the risk of the hurricane levees being topped is less than 1 in 300. But over the life of a 30-year mortgage, statistically that risk approaches 9 percent.
> In the past year, Federal Emergency Management Agency officials have begun working with state and local agencies to devise plans on what to do if a Category 5 hurricane strikes New Orleans.>
> Shortly after he took office, FEMA Director Joe Allbaugh ordered aides to examine the nation's potential major catastrophes, including the New Orleans scenario.
> ``Catastrophic disasters are best defined in that they totally outstrip local and state resources, which is why the federal government needs to play a role,'' Allbaugh said. ``There are a half-dozen or so contingencies around the nation that cause me great concern, and one of them is right there (in New Orleans).''
> In concert with state and local officials, FEMA is studying evacuation procedures, postdisaster rescue strategies, temporary housing and technical issues such as how to pump out water trapped inside the levees, said Michael Lowder, chief of policy and planning in FEMA's Readiness, Response and Recovery directorate. A preliminary report should be completed in the next few months.
> With computer modeling of hurricanes and storm surges, disaster experts have developed a detailed picture of how a storm could push water over the levees and into the city.
> New Orleans and its largest suburban areas are sandwiched between Lake Pontchartrain to the north and Mississippi River to the south. Levees completely surround inhabited areas. Channels connect the lake to the Gulf of Mexico, meaning hurricanes can push massive amounts of water from the Gulf into the lakebed and ultimately over the levees.
> ``The worst case is a hurricane moving in from due south of the city,'' said Joseph Suhayda, a Louisiana State University scientist who is studying ways to limit hurricane damage in the New Orleans area. Suhayda has developed a computer simulation of the flooding from such a storm.
> On that track, winds on the outer edges of a huge storm system will be pushing water into Lake Pontchartrain for two days before landfall, raising it 5 to 8 feet.
> Pushed by winds from 50 to 100 mph, generating waves 5 to 10 feet high, the flood waters will start breaking over the levee.
> ``All of a sudden you'll start seeing flowing water. It'll look like a weir, water just pouring over the top,'' Suhayda said. There would be no stopping or slowing it; pumping systems would be overwhelmed and submerged in a matter of hours.
> Ninety percent of the structures in the city are likely to be destroyed by the combination of water and wind accompanying a Category 5 storm, said Robert Eichorn, former director of the New Orleans Office of Emergency Preparedness. The LSU Hurricane Center surveyed numerous large public buildings in Jefferson Parish in hopes of identifying those that might withstand such catastrophic winds. They found none.
> Amid this maelstrom, the estimated 200,000 or more people left behind in an evacuation will be struggling to survive. Some will be housed at the Superdome, the designated shelter in New Orleans for people too sick or infirm to leave the city. Others will end up in last-minute emergency refuges that will offer minimal safety. But many will simply be on their own, in homes or looking for high ground.
> Thousands will drown while trapped in homes or cars by rising water. Others will be washed away or crushed by debris. Survivors will end up trapped on roofs, in buildings or on high ground surrounded by water, with no means of escape and little food or fresh water, perhaps for several days.
> ``If you look at the World Trade Center collapsing, it'll be like that, but add water,'' Eichorn said. ``There will be debris flying around, and you're going to be in the water with snakes, rodents, nutria and fish from the lake. It's not going to be nice.''
> Mobilized by FEMA, search and rescue teams from across the nation will converge on the city. Volunteer teams of doctors, nurses and emergency medical technicians that were pre-positioned in Monroe or Shreveport to the north before the storm will move to the area, said Henry Delgado, regional emergency coordinator for the U.S. Public Health Service.>
> But just getting into the city will be a problem for rescuers. Approaches by road may be washed out.
> Stranded survivors will have a dangerous wait even after the storm passes. Emergency officials worry that energized electrical wires could pose a threat of electrocution and that the floodwater could become contaminated with sewage and with toxic chemicals from industrial plants and backyard sheds. Gasoline, diesel fuel and oil leaking from underground storage tanks at service stations may also become a problem, corps officials say.
> A variety of creatures _ rats, mice and nutria, poisonous snakes and alligators, fire ants, mosquitoes and abandoned cats and dogs _ will be searching for the same dry accommodations that people are using.
> Contaminated food or water used for bathing, drinking and cooking could cause illnesses including salmonella, botulism, typhoid and hepatitis. Outbreaks of mosquito-borne dengue fever and encephalitis are likely, said Dr. James Diaz, director of the department of public health and preventive medicine at LSU School of Medicine in New Orleans.
> New Orleans would face the future with most of its housing stock and historic structures destroyed. Hotels, office buildings and infrastructure would be heavily damaged. Tens of thousands of people would be dead and many survivors homeless and shellshocked. Rebuilding would be a formidable challenge even with a generous federal aid package.
> ``You wouldn't have an infrastructure, that's for sure,'' said Hucky Purpera, natural and technical hazards chief for the Louisiana Office of Emergency Preparedness. ``What would you be going back to? Residents might be going back in, but would businesses rebuild They'll make decisions based on what's best for the company. And if you do decide to rebuild, do you rebuild there? A lot of that we don't know.''
> But it's unlikely the city would be completely abandoned, economists and disaster experts say. Most cities do eventually recover from major disasters _ though no precedent exists for the wholesale destruction of ``filling the bowl.''
> No single storm would wipe out the entire New Orleans area. The city's location on the Mississippi River near the Gulf of Mexico would still be strategic for trade. Industrial plants upriver would remain largely intact.
> ``It's always recoverable. People own that property. They are not going to walk away. If someone does walk away, there will be a bank that will foreclose and ultimately resell that space,'' said Mary Comerio, a professor of architecture at the University of California, Berkeley, and author of a book on postdisaster reconstruction. ``It will all be at fire-sale prices, and it will end up a different place, owned by different people.''
> After a Category 4 hurricane destroyed Galveston, Texas, in 1900, the entire island was raised 7 feet before rebuilding began. To avoid a repeat catastrophe, officials would likely consider how to hurricane-proof the city, or even think about moving it.
> ``We've not tried to tackle that yet,'' said Lowder, the FEMA official. ``What's the best way to _ I won't say rebuild _ but where do we go from here? How can we make sure that our recovery doesn't put things back the exact same way they were?''