Taking bets on Prop 8 trial
Matt Coles, Director of the ACLU's LGBT Project, has written an excellent little two part series for the Huffington Post about the Prop. 8 Trial and it's eventual outcome.
Part One: The San Francisco Marriage Case, Part One: Possible Outcomes
Part Two: The San Francisco Marriage Case, Part Two: The Supreme Court
Coles lays out four possible outcomes for the Perry v. Schwarzenegger trial: the Big Win, the Smaller Win, the Smaller Loss and the Big Loss.
The Big Win would be the ruling the lawyers were shooting for when they filed the case: a decision saying that it is unconstitutional for a state to refuse to marry same-sex couples. A decision like that from the U.S. Supreme Court would mean that same-sex couples could marry in all 50 states.
The Smaller Win would turn on the fact that through its Domestic Partnership system, California gives the same legal rights to same-sex couples that it gives to married couples. A court could focus on that, and say that since the state gives all couples the same legal treatment, the only reason it could possibly have for giving some relationships a different name would be to make a statement that some relationships are not as good, not as important. The court could then strike down Proposition 8 saying that the federal Constitution doesn’t allow states to pass laws just to declare that some people aren’t as good as others.
The Smaller Loss, like the smaller win, would turn on the existence of California’s Domestic Partnership system. A court could say that federal courts only rule in cases with tangible, concrete harm. It might rule that since California gives the same tangible legal rights to all couples, there is no real harm of the sort that courts deal with.
The Big Loss would be a ruling that it is not unconstitutional for states to refuse to marry same-sex couples. The catastrophic version of that (not very likely as I’ll explain below) would be a ruling that, in general, it isn’t unconstitutional for states to discriminate on the basis of sexual orientation.
So, let's take bets. I'm thinking the odds are 15% best case scenario, 40% good scenario, 40% bad scenario, 5% worst scenario. What do you think?
Part One: The San Francisco Marriage Case, Part One: Possible Outcomes
Part Two: The San Francisco Marriage Case, Part Two: The Supreme Court
Coles lays out four possible outcomes for the Perry v. Schwarzenegger trial: the Big Win, the Smaller Win, the Smaller Loss and the Big Loss.
The Big Win would be the ruling the lawyers were shooting for when they filed the case: a decision saying that it is unconstitutional for a state to refuse to marry same-sex couples. A decision like that from the U.S. Supreme Court would mean that same-sex couples could marry in all 50 states.
The Smaller Win would turn on the fact that through its Domestic Partnership system, California gives the same legal rights to same-sex couples that it gives to married couples. A court could focus on that, and say that since the state gives all couples the same legal treatment, the only reason it could possibly have for giving some relationships a different name would be to make a statement that some relationships are not as good, not as important. The court could then strike down Proposition 8 saying that the federal Constitution doesn’t allow states to pass laws just to declare that some people aren’t as good as others.
The Smaller Loss, like the smaller win, would turn on the existence of California’s Domestic Partnership system. A court could say that federal courts only rule in cases with tangible, concrete harm. It might rule that since California gives the same tangible legal rights to all couples, there is no real harm of the sort that courts deal with.
The Big Loss would be a ruling that it is not unconstitutional for states to refuse to marry same-sex couples. The catastrophic version of that (not very likely as I’ll explain below) would be a ruling that, in general, it isn’t unconstitutional for states to discriminate on the basis of sexual orientation.
So, let's take bets. I'm thinking the odds are 15% best case scenario, 40% good scenario, 40% bad scenario, 5% worst scenario. What do you think?