Prop 102: We can win, but will we?
Friday evening, I hosted a "house party" at my home for people who want to learn more about Prop 102, Arizona's so-called "Marriage Amendment." I timed it so that we could talk for a half hour about Prop 102, then watch the debate. It turns out that I picked a bad time, as six of the invitees were embarking on a cruise (I forgot) and many other people had other plans, but eight people came and we had a good discussion.
Earlier in the day, I received notice of a teleconference for Prop 102 volunteers and community leaders, and I dialed in. What I learned really left me encouraged about our prospects for winning. With California getting all the attention (and money) to defeat Prop 8, we have been feeling kind of left out - sort of an expendible factor in the overall battle. Plus, the supporters of Prop 102 have raised tons of money, primarily from Mormons who have been ordered to contribute by the head of the church in Salt Lake City.
The fact is that throughout the history of the state of Arizona, any ballot proposition has needed at least 60% Yes support at the beginning of the election season in order to win, because support always drops by 20% when there is organized opposition. And in fact, when we defeated Prop 107 in 2006, we started the election with 57% in favor of Prop 107, but by election day, only 48% voted in favor - a drop of about 20%. This year, in August 2008, only 48% of polled voters said they would vote for Prop 102. We're starting off nine points better than two years ago!
Arizona Together, the same group who organized and led the defeat of Prop 107, has developed a message that has been tested by focus groups and found to be a winning message. Now, all we have to do is raise the money to put the commercials on TV. Two years ago, the TV commercials were the main factor that won the undecided voters over to our side. I think this year's commercial is a winner, too: it's engaging, effective, and memorable. Take a look!
Now, we just need to raise $500,000 to run commercials for the next few weeks prior to the election (the same amount we spent on commercials two years ago). Two years ago, Arizona was the first state to defeat a marriage amendment. Up until that time, I think everyone thought that defeating a marriage amendment was impossible - we just had to suck it up and endure it.
Now, it's 2008, and we have marriage amendments in California, Arizona, and Florida. The latest polls show that Yes support has dropped to 38% in California, and from 58% to 55% in Florida (and Florida requires 60% to pass a constitutional amendment). In Arizona, we're starting out with only 48% yes, but there are still too many undecided voters, and we have to get the message out there to order to win. We can't win in 2006 and then lose in 2008.
Defeating all three marriage amendments would be a stunning defeat for the right wing, and it would truly signal a turning point in the overall fight for marriage equality. I know most of the readers of my journal live outside of Arizona, but if any of you could see your way clear to contribute to Arizona Together, it will help insure that we win. Please visit http://www.aztogether.org to read more information and to donate.
I just composed and sent an email to every supportive person I know in Arizona bringing them up to date on everything that's happening (because word is not widely getting out) and asking them to VOTE, SPREAD THE WORD, and DONATE. I'm really satisfied with my effort and I feel good about that.
Earlier in the day, I received notice of a teleconference for Prop 102 volunteers and community leaders, and I dialed in. What I learned really left me encouraged about our prospects for winning. With California getting all the attention (and money) to defeat Prop 8, we have been feeling kind of left out - sort of an expendible factor in the overall battle. Plus, the supporters of Prop 102 have raised tons of money, primarily from Mormons who have been ordered to contribute by the head of the church in Salt Lake City.
The fact is that throughout the history of the state of Arizona, any ballot proposition has needed at least 60% Yes support at the beginning of the election season in order to win, because support always drops by 20% when there is organized opposition. And in fact, when we defeated Prop 107 in 2006, we started the election with 57% in favor of Prop 107, but by election day, only 48% voted in favor - a drop of about 20%. This year, in August 2008, only 48% of polled voters said they would vote for Prop 102. We're starting off nine points better than two years ago!
Arizona Together, the same group who organized and led the defeat of Prop 107, has developed a message that has been tested by focus groups and found to be a winning message. Now, all we have to do is raise the money to put the commercials on TV. Two years ago, the TV commercials were the main factor that won the undecided voters over to our side. I think this year's commercial is a winner, too: it's engaging, effective, and memorable. Take a look!
Click to viewNow, we just need to raise $500,000 to run commercials for the next few weeks prior to the election (the same amount we spent on commercials two years ago). Two years ago, Arizona was the first state to defeat a marriage amendment. Up until that time, I think everyone thought that defeating a marriage amendment was impossible - we just had to suck it up and endure it.
Now, it's 2008, and we have marriage amendments in California, Arizona, and Florida. The latest polls show that Yes support has dropped to 38% in California, and from 58% to 55% in Florida (and Florida requires 60% to pass a constitutional amendment). In Arizona, we're starting out with only 48% yes, but there are still too many undecided voters, and we have to get the message out there to order to win. We can't win in 2006 and then lose in 2008.
Defeating all three marriage amendments would be a stunning defeat for the right wing, and it would truly signal a turning point in the overall fight for marriage equality. I know most of the readers of my journal live outside of Arizona, but if any of you could see your way clear to contribute to Arizona Together, it will help insure that we win. Please visit http://www.aztogether.org to read more information and to donate.
I just composed and sent an email to every supportive person I know in Arizona bringing them up to date on everything that's happening (because word is not widely getting out) and asking them to VOTE, SPREAD THE WORD, and DONATE. I'm really satisfied with my effort and I feel good about that.