The deciding factor in the presidential election
This election is likely going to be close. The best bet for a Republican candidate right now is to consolidate the conservative support and bring in independents, but the way the primaries are going it's likely to alienate both groups.
So there will be some sort of X factor. The one that everyone is paying attention to is the economy. Conventional wisdom sees a boost to Obama as unemployment eases and the economy continues to improve.
But I think the real X factor is war. Not with Afghanistan or Iraq, but with Iran. The bottom line is that Iran is clearly on the cusp of nuclear capability, and neither Israel nor the U.S. will allow that to happen.
But "not allowing that to happen" probably looks like a major attack right now, and that's likely to have some sort of major military repercussions. This, in any number of ways, is likely to have more of an impact than anything else on who is sitting in the white house next February.
So there will be some sort of X factor. The one that everyone is paying attention to is the economy. Conventional wisdom sees a boost to Obama as unemployment eases and the economy continues to improve.
But I think the real X factor is war. Not with Afghanistan or Iraq, but with Iran. The bottom line is that Iran is clearly on the cusp of nuclear capability, and neither Israel nor the U.S. will allow that to happen.
But "not allowing that to happen" probably looks like a major attack right now, and that's likely to have some sort of major military repercussions. This, in any number of ways, is likely to have more of an impact than anything else on who is sitting in the white house next February.