(no subject)
I've been thinking a lot about turkey these days, becuase turkey is wierd. For more than a decade, the turks have been begging to get into the EU, and the EU has mostly been stalling. The turks are teh most dynamic, democratic, and stable of the islamic countries, but are not Arabic. They actualyl come from central asia, but thats not really the point, the point is that turkey is BIG. 70 million people and a half a trillion dollar economy means that it could compete for power with Germany and France. Its also not a sclerotic aging socialist state, so its power is only going to grow. Cultural issues a side, this means that while they'll gladly admit cyprus, turkey has a much harder road. it would be very good for the US to have an allie in the union that could compete with the french/german union. I think they'll be forced to accept the turks, but will make them jump through enough beauracratic hoops to drive anyone who wasn't european mad. I see full membership for Turkey in 20 years minimum. They probably won't even get fauz-full membership (like the latest 10 members) for another decade or more.
On another note, I can't get why this Sadr guy is still breathing. He's rebelled and lost two or three times now, has desecrated a holy city, and is bitterly hated by most Iraqis. My one thought is that he's going to provide evidence he was working with Iran. the Bush administration has been building up for a confrontation with them for a while, and now that they're clearly intervening in Iraq AND blustering about nuclear weapons, the international community might finally get its ass in gear. I doubt it though. Short of detonating a nuke Iran will get a free pass, france has oil interests there after all. Given how well the "family of nations" is handling the situation in the Sudan, i'm not holding my breath for them to tackle the most dangerous country in the world.
On another note, I can't get why this Sadr guy is still breathing. He's rebelled and lost two or three times now, has desecrated a holy city, and is bitterly hated by most Iraqis. My one thought is that he's going to provide evidence he was working with Iran. the Bush administration has been building up for a confrontation with them for a while, and now that they're clearly intervening in Iraq AND blustering about nuclear weapons, the international community might finally get its ass in gear. I doubt it though. Short of detonating a nuke Iran will get a free pass, france has oil interests there after all. Given how well the "family of nations" is handling the situation in the Sudan, i'm not holding my breath for them to tackle the most dangerous country in the world.