Naruto Structure Mega-Analysis
Whoo! I probably should have waited a chapter or two for this arc to properly end before posting it, but I got reaaaal fed-up of letting it mould. So here you have it! The last of my mega-essays, the Naruto Structure Analysis!
Naruto is a Weekly Shounen Manga, so it can't be planned like some normal novel or fanfic: it likely has to conform to specific structure requirements to get the "okay" from the editors. I've thus been trying to analyze it from a structural approach for a while now.
NF version
Index
Part I - A deck of cards: a theory on Kishimoto's distribution method
I. The creation and distribution rules
II. Major rule consequences
III. The decks of cards
Part II - The story structure breakdown
I. The first 3 chapter rule
II. Arc structure break-down
III. From the skeleton to the story: the expansion of the Naruto story
IV. Saving the best for last? A distribution theory
Conclusion
Index
Part I - A deck of cards: a theory on Kishimoto's distribution method
I. The creation and distribution rules
I.1. The "something new" rules
I.2. The matching rules
I.3. The progress rules
II. Major rule consequences
II.1. Character abilities
II.2. Themes and character development
II.3. Plotline implications
III. The decks of cards
III.1. The decks
III.2. The decks battle match-ups
III.3. The ability cards distribution
III.4. The thematic cards distribution
III.5. Plotlines
Part II - The story structure breakdown
I. The first 3 chapter rule
I.1. Characters
I.2. Plotlines
II. Arc structure break-down
II.1. The intro phase
II.2. The obstacle/build-up phase(s)
II.3. The final phase
II.4. Limitations
III. From the skeleton to the story: the expansion of the Naruto story
III.1. The Naruto core and expansion
III.2. The story distribution
III.3. Note: the first half of Part II
IV. Saving the best for last? A distribution theory
IV.1. The main character decks that had to be played out anyway
IV.2. The main support decks limitations
IV.3. Theory on the second half of part II
Conclusion
This essay renders most of my previous structure essays obsolete, including:
- My Arc IV global predictions
- My Part II structure essay
- Why I'm really optimistic for the support cast in the second half of part II
- My very old essay on themes
That said, for the purpose of this essay, I had written a separate one on Shikamaru. Over 60% of structural exceptions seem to apply to him. =\
Part I - A deck of cards: a theory on Kishimoto's distribution method
Naruto is a Weekly Shounen Manga. It means Kishimoto can't just write anything that comes through his mind like a fan could write a fanfic. Obvious? Duh.
In a nutshell:
I. The creation and distribution rules
Below are a number of rules I think Kishimoto has to follow. I call them the "These are so obvious, they can't be wrong!" rules. =\
I.1. The "something new" rules
Thou shalt not repeat the same thing over and over.
Naruto is a weekly manga. If Kishimoto gets repetitive either on a weekly basis or on a more general level, he'd probably get fired in no time.
I personally distinguish at least 3 major variants of this rule:
- the "something new each chapter" corollary
- the "unique usage" constraint
- the "specialization" constraint
"Something new each chapter"
On a chapter basis, Kishimoto likely has to show something new each chapter, be it:
- a new jutsu
- a new character development
- a new plotline development
These can even be something extremely half-assed like:
- Naruto realizing that he shouldn't use Kyuubi so much
- Yet another Rasengan training phase
- Yet another variation of a same jutsu (puppets, rasengan, chidori)
- a combo of existing attacks
- showing the effects of a jutsu that only happened off manga-panel before
- explaining a jutsu that just happened before
- failing an attack that always succeeded before
(hey don't look at me).
The "unique usage" constraint
The jutsu example is the most obvious. As Hexa once put it: each jutsu has at most one (fully visible) effective use. If it doesn't fail afterwards, it's under the following exceptions:
- both usages occur in the same chapter (one in flashback, one in non-flashback - see Uchiha instances)
- the subsequent uses are minor, or just story support roles (Itachi using Tsukiyomi on Sasuke). In the meantime, something else that chapter must fill the "new" quotas instead.
Otherwise, it simply fails (which ironically counts towards the "new" quota). Notice how Naruto has only ever successfully used normal Rasengan once: against Kabuto. Ever since then he's had to rely on more powerful variations to get any effect.
And yes, I lol'ed when both Tsukiyomi and Amaterasu failed against Sasuke (even if it was later explained that it was on purpose). Used goods. These attacks likely won't ever be used again, believe it! Sasuke's even got a new MS to do different techniques.
I believe this to be true of levels of character development as well: a character won't realize the same thing over and over, or achieve the same thing over and over.
The "specialization" constraint
This is likely Kishimoto's direct compromise between ease of planning and the necessity to keep showing something new.
TenshiOni once pointed out just how many types of abilities Kishimoto has actually created. However, at the same time, he created many characters, and had to divide these abilities among them.
In order to avoid character design redundancy and ensure that the characters abilities don't overlap, Kishimoto has no choice but to ensure that each character specializes, not only in terms of abilities, but in terms of themes as well.
The great advantage of this method is that it makes planning Considerably easier: Kishimoto can basically label that "This fight is about puppets," and come up with as many variations on puppet attacks as he can think of for that one fight, without ever worrying about how it may limit choices for other characters. Likewise, two characters with different themes won't be realizing the same thing throughout the manga, thus in theory avoiding thematic repetitiveness.
The downside of this is that this approach makes the majority of characters ability and thematic one-trick ponies. Now you know why.
I.2. The matching rules
Thine final villain shalt not be defeated by fodder throwing kunai.
Seems pretty obvious again, right? And since this is a Shounen manga, 70% of the fight consists of "Who fights who how."
Again, I see several variants. Within each battle:
- each side must be at least seemingly matched in strength (ie: each side must appear to be getting the upper hand about half the time)
- each side must be matched in terms of new abilities shown
- the protagonist side must match up in terms of importance - there is no lower limit to what a protagonist can fight, but the upper categories of villains are reserved.
Matching in strength
If one side cannot "put up a good fight," the fight cannot last and simply gets cut off. The perception that both sides are evenly matched up can be a mere illusion, but during the fight, each side must appear to be gaining an upper hand about half the time, or at least, give the illusion that the situation is being turned around. The outcome must not seem Too predictable.
Note: teamwork can compensate for a weaker protagonist side.
Matching in new
A brand new Akatsuki with an impressive arsenal won't get defeated by characters wielding "the same old tricks" of kawarimi, kunai, whatever. Those abilities can be used, but only alongside major new attacks or major upgrades to existing attacks.
This and the "match in strength" rule explains for example why structurally, Chiyo had to be created: to fill both the "strength" quota and the "new" quota on the protagonist side against Sasori's entire arsenal.
The downside of this is that you can forget about future victories using "nothing but the basics the characters have already shown." (though new tactical tricks and upgrades to existing tricks can be considered "something new")
Note: again, teamwork can compensate for a "weaker" protagonist side.
Match in importance
There is no lower limit to whom a protagonist can fight, but there Is an upper limit: the major villains who truly affect the central plotlines can only be defeated by the main characters who also have an impact in those plotlines.
Also, older generations are just about not allowed to defeat anybody. More on that later.
I.3. The progress rules
Thine character shalt progress.
Well, you heard me.
Actually, the more accurate description would be: the new quota can either be filled by either:
- something completely new
- or by attacks of the same nature but of increasing power.
This applies within a battle (after all, you're not going to use weaker attacks if a stronger one failed) and for the -final- attacks of each successive battle.
Simple example for the second point:
- Naruto's rasengan isn't necessarily more impressive than summoning Gamabunta. But they're different categories of attacks, so who cares?
- However, each time Naruto brings out a Rasengan variation, it must be more powerful than the last. He also has to show more tails with each Kyuubi transformation.
The same applies to character resolution: for each theme, each level of character resolution can only be used once, and must be used in progressing order (no reason for the character to regress). Otherwise, they aren't addressed at all!
In the same way, each impediment to plotline progress can probably only be used once. The next arc of the same nature must show some kind of progress.
Now, all these wouldn't be a problem if Kishimoto could either:
- just endlessly power up the characters without any justifications whatsoever
- or just use a different set of abilities each time (same with themes)
But remember:
- the majority of characters are specialists
- any significant power up must be somehow justified
- the characters can't just hold back/save attacks for a next battle if they're confronting opponents much stronger than them
II. Major rule consequences
II.1. Character abilities
First, note the "unique usage" constraint in action:
- Deidara skipped C3 against Sasuke (then ended with the more powerful C4 and self-explosion)
- Naruto didn't get Asuma's chakra blades (used goods)
- Master summons are also "used goods," which explains the ease with which Manda was discarded.
- Sakura's super strength was used goods, so after her fight against Sasori she never got to really use it again...
- Tsukiyomi and Amaterasu? Well, there you go.
- We also shouldn't be surprised if we don't see Shinraishin by Ino or Hinata's filler jutsu: they're both used goods from -Part I-. Even if they do have it, they'd be of no structural use in the manga.
The biggest victim to structural considerations however is Naruto, which led to many a Naruto-bashing thread. Even most of the Akatsuki only have one or two major categories of abilities: Sasori had poisoned puppets, Deidara had explosions, Hidan had immortality, Kakuzu had tentacles + 5 hearts. Naruto has at least 3 "normal" categories:
- Kage Bunshin
- Rasengan/Fuuton
- Kuchiyose
- and he also has multiple levels of power-ups.
However:
- As the main character, he has to fill the biggest amount of fights, forcing him to spread out his abilities the thinnest to save something for the next fights.
- As per the "progress" rule, he Has to show something more powerful each fight (at least for a given category). But he's not allowed to hold back against the S-rank opponents he faces (matching rule). Result: after 2.5 years of training, he Had to come back weak enough to leave room for improvement.
- Finally, as per the "unique usage" rule, every time he learns something new, it must turn out to be either insufficient or unreliable, forcing him to backtrack on the "used goods." This explains why he had to backtrack on Oodama Rasengan, KN4 And Fuuton Rasenshuriken.
Which unfortunately for Naruto, makes him look as though he's getting nowhere. Poor guy.
To make things worse, the explanations of his attacks, which could otherwise have been decently cool, are instead diluted out through chapters and chapters of training. Result: by the time they're done, they've taken so long that many people don't care anymore.
By contrast, Sasuke dealt with the problem by barely showing up for 3 arcs, then showing the blunt of his improvements in just one arc (including one-time power-up via assimilation of Orochimaru), making him look uber-badass. lol.
Kishimoto dealt with the rest of the support cast in an even more simple way: he just about showed nothing of them in the first half of part II, and found just about every way possible for the opponents to be taken care of by someone else instead (when there were opponents in the first place...).
On the other hand, this does have positive predictive implications. For example, if Sakura has another major fight, then it is certain that it won't be mostly based on her strength and anti-poison abilities (they may still be used, but no longer as the major factors), and she won't be using old tricks by others such as Kabuto's chakra blade or Shizune's poison cloud either.
II.2. Themes and character development
Apart from abilities, the other element with a degree of importance in Naruto is character development, especially themed character development.
I had addressed the themes aspect long time ago in my themes essay. Basically, Kishimoto designs a character Around a theme, not the other way round. This means a character's entire design and background is made in a way to bring out the One theme most. It also allows Kishimoto to easily avoid using the same theme twice.
Unfortunately, this leads to the problem of theme specialization.
When Kishimoto comes up with a new theme, he creates a brand new character around the theme, the latest examples being Yamato (addressing the jinchuuriki aspect) and Sai (addressing the "brother" theme - kind of). Well... team Hebi is even more recent, but the Sai and Yamato examples are more obvious.
The other advantage of creating a new character instead of using an existing one is that by revealing new background, new attacks and such, Kishimoto is able to fill more manga pages, which translates into more money...
Unfortunately, as with abilities, this specialization explains the often surprising lack of depth from the support cast:
- Team Gai's non-reaction upon hearing of Gaara's kidnapping. Even Lee!
- Ino and Chouji's relatively little response to Asuma's death compared to Shikamaru (Asuma's death was fodder for Shikamaru's development and only his)
- Team 8's non-reaction to the revelation that Naruto is a jinchuuriki.
- Hell, why don't Jiraiya and Tsunade have a serious heart-to-heart talk with Naruto and Sakura on their respective problems? Why don't anybody else for that matter?
This is simply Kishimoto not allowing other characters to participate in themes that are not "theirs," thereby preventing them from using up someone else's theme cards (or something).
In theory, any character who's had trouble with family could have deviated from his main theme a bit and confronted Naruto on the brother aspect, and Kakashi could have helped with the jinchuuriki aspect (just give him a few new seals). This would have made perfect sense for giving more depth to a character. Instead, when faced with a theme that's not "theirs," the support cast doesn't react at all.
Only the main characters and Shikamaru (see separate essay) are truly allowed more thematic freedom. Gaara, whose theme (jinchuuriki) is closest to Naruto's, also has a relatively larger thematic freedom, but his themes still mirror the ones relevant to Naruto's jinchuuriki aspect. Notice his non-impact on the Sasuke aspect. Saying 1 or 2 sentences doesn't count. =\
II.3. Plotline implications
You know, this part would have probably been more useful if the manga wasn't this advanced already...
The way I see it, Kishimoto never stalls the manga using the same method twice. The second time, the plot Must advance.
- since the Zabuza arc, we've never had another random mission arc that didn't somehow involve one of the major plotlines
- we probably won't ever had a chuunin exams arc again
- the first "save Sasuke" (against Gaara) arc in part I "succeeded." The second one failed and led to much more plot advancement.
- in part II, we only had one "save Jinchuuriki arc."
- arguably, the Zombie arc was not of much plot use, but it was the only major part II training arc.
- we had 2 part II "save Sasuke" arcs, but the second one led to major plot advancement.
Basically, the last thing to be worried about is for two arcs to have the exact same outcome. Even if Naruto fails yet again to save Sasuke, you'd at least get Some sort of new development.
III. The decks of cards
With all the mentioned rules, you can probably understand the following analogy now: each character basically possesses a finite deck of abilities and development cards. The usage condition is as following:
- there are some cards that Kishimoto has to play, and others that are optional
- however, any card can only be used in a significant way once.
- for any one character, the cards must be used in increasing level of power/development level.
The main types of cards (that I can think of are):
- jutsu/ability cards
- character revelation and development cards
Apart from all that, there are some pure plotline cards thrown in somewhere, such as the "revelation" of Akatsuki's true plan and of the "secret" that Yondaime was Naruto's father, but I have yet to find a specific rule on how these particular cards get used. They don't take up many panels anyway. Oh well.
In any case, Kishimoto has to fill out a finite amount of chapters, with a finite deck of cards, in increasing order.
III.1. The decks
Protagonist side:
The main characters (team 7) form the "skeleton" of the story. They are allowed the most abilities and the most thematic freedom, and they hold "essential" cards that have to be used (in terms of growing stronger and affecting the plot). On the other hand, there are very few of them.
The main support cast (rest of the ex-genin 15) by contrast form the meat of the story: they're much closer to one-trick ponies, both for abilities and for themes, but there are many more of them.
Older-generation protagonists are usually only there to make the current-gen look good. =\
The main characters and main support cast form the "Shounen core:" since this is a Shounen manga, the manga centers on the progress of the -current- generation. Basically, they're the only ones who are important (not to mention immortal), and all the older folks are basically just there to make them look good.
Note: Team Sand and perhaps Sai may form only fit half the conditions of the Shounen core: they are older (?), and/or implied to be very powerful, so the manga focuses less on the "struggles" they go through as they grow up, so to say. But they are handy allies to have along.
Antagonist side:
I personally divide the antagonists into the "important" ones, that actually affect the plot, and the "cronies", who may be powerful, but are just there to fill pages.
Fillers:
Finally, you have a bunch of filler-ish characters.
Side note: I forgot who it was in the forums who first said that in Shounen mangas, the main protagonist Has to have twice the amount of panel time as anybody else. For the longest time, Hinata's Fan's character panel count seemed to confirm the fact:
http://forums.narutofan.com/showpost.php?p=3320454&postcount=98
However, with the Hebi arc, Sasuke has gone well beyond half of Naruto's panel time. This could lead to one of two following possibilities:
- either he's about to get sidelined for a long while again
- or the editors have decided that he's too popular to hold back, and have thus granted him main character status.
III.2. The decks battle match-ups
Notice how structurally convenient the Chuunin exams were: instead of having to create many new characters of the same-ish power level as the then genin 15, Kishimoto made said genin fight each other.
Also, that's right, the older generation aren't allowed significant victories:
- Sandaime, Jiraiya, and Tsunade failed kill Orochimaru.
- Jiraiya defeated only 1/6th of Pein
- Asuma got killed
- Chiyo served mainly as support to Sakura's showcasing
- Gai defeated a mere Clone.
Whoo-hoo. Like wow. Unfair, isn't it? Only Kakashi, as ½ main character, may escape the rules somewhat.
Observation: The size of a battle is directly linked to the size of the ability deck of each side (including explanations etc):
- During the Chuunin exams, most characters only got battles of 1 or 2 chapters, especially those who had already introduced their skills in the first or second exams. Only those with special abilities (bijuu, gates etc) could fit longer battles.
- In the Rescue Arc, the Sound 4 could for the most part fill 3 solo battle-chapters + 1 chapter non-solo.
- Akatsuki seem made to fill 10 to 12 battle chapters each (!).
- The "big" bosses are capable of filling even more battles. Orochimaru filled about 20, Pein filled about 8 with just one body.
Note 1: the ones setting the length of a battle are the antagonists, not the protagonists! Maybe it's because they're about to die off, whereas the protagonists can always save for a next battle. Unless they're about to die, that is, in which case they go full out.
Note 2: probably to avoid having nothing but jutsus, Kishimoto very often establishes either a thematic or a background link between the protagonist and the antagonist side. See:
- the first half of part I (Naruto themes)
- the first half of part II: Chiyo as Sasori's grandmother, Hidan and Kakuzu just happen to have killed off people Asuma knew, Deidara held a grudge against Sharingan, and Jiraiya just happened to be Konan and Pein's sensei.
- it's math really. Connections = more interaction panels = more chapters = more $$$. Don't be surprised if Madara turns out to be Naruto's mother's cousin's brother-in-law's roommate.
Also, as the manga progressed, the protagonist side has become increasingly poorly matched against the antagonist side (if not in terms of strength, then in terms of "new": see matching rules).
- During the Chuunin exams, many battles could afford to be one on one.
- By the time of the Chuunin exams, only Neji and Chouji could fill in the quotas on their own (Neji being one year older, and Chouji having 3 pills). Kiba, Shikamaru and Lee had to be joined by the Sand siblings to use up the antagonist's decks.
- With Akatsuki, even more battles are used up: Deidara fought Gaara, then Naruto + Kakashi, then Sasuke. Hidan + Kakuzu faced not only team 10, but Kotetsu/Izumo + Raidou/Aoba + Naruto/Yamato as well.
III.3. The ability cards distribution
The younger generation protagonists, for the most part, goes by levels of abilities that increase over time, with eventually intermediary power-ups.
Older generations (antagonist or protagonist) for the most part start off more powerful, and may get several sets of attacks, that are either:
- completely different sets of attacks (example: Orochimaru)
- or many variations within a same category of attacks, with more powerful finish with each successive battle (Sasori's puppets, Deidara's explosions)
Finally, you have the occasional remaining extras. They show off one category of attack (with an eventual a total of 1 move) and that's that. Page fillers. I won't focus on them.
A level or a set of attacks can be further divided:
- introduction: a hint at the character's abilities. These can be separate from a main battle (even in separate arcs). Examples: Sasori hinting his abilities against Kankurou, Sasuke hinting his power against team Yamato, Hidan laying in his circle after defeating Nibi, etc.
- main arsenal: the main of the attacks, which basically consists of as many variations of an attack type as Kishimoto can think of: Sasori's many puppets, Deidara's many explosion types and Sasuke's Raiton arsenals. These also include combos, hyping and explanations instead of something actually new...
- trump card: when applicable, one side may bring out a final, "ultimate"-ish attack. Good examples are Naruto's Fuuton Rasen-Shuriken, Deidara's suicide explosion, Sasuke's Kirin. and Itachi's Susanoo.
Now, focusing on the main and main support characters:
- L0: the ability of the cast at the beginning of the series.
- L1: the ability during the Chuunin exams. Level at which most of the support cast is introduced.
- L2: the ability during the rescue arc (due from training after the exams).
- L3: post-timeskip ability level.
Others:
- + : extra intermediate level due to training (Kuchiyose, Fuuton Rasen-shuriken, etc)
- * : extra intermediate level due to power-ups (Kyuubi, Sharingan, curse seal)
- MaxH: maximum hype. See "themes" sections.
- () : introduction (not full revelation of that level)
Note: The ability level varies between characters. Team Gai's L1 is the Rookie 9's L2, etc.
As you can see, Naruto and Sasuke manage to fill a bigger amount of chapters thanks to either power-ups or mini-training arcs.
By contrast, neither Sakura nor the rest of the support cast have this luxury, so they can structurally only fit into a limited amount of major battles. In short, the reasons for Sakura standing there "doing nothing" are structural: she's got the overall panel presence of a main character, but an ability deck akin to the rest of the support cast. Bummer. Notice how Sai and Yamato have started standing around too.
That said, I'm not too worried about whether Kishimoto can come up with a decent battle for the main support cast later on: all he did was give the L3 introduction for most of them so far. I'm pretty sure Kishimoto can come up with several Jyuuken variations, several Taijutsu + gates variations, several bug-attacks variations, several weapon attacks variations... with combos on top of it all.
For reference, the older generations:
III.4. The thematic cards distribution
Focusing on themes, I personally divide thematic resolution for the current-gen into the following phases:
1. Theme introduction. If a confrontation against Naruto occurs, I include Naruto's defeat of the character into the introduction, because they always occur in the same arc.
2. Theme mid-resolution. The character proves that he has assimilated the lesson by fighting in its name.
Note: the characters can usually only have so many mid-resolutions (ie, 1). Otherwise, they'd be repeating themselves without achieving anything, a structural no-no.
3. Max hype. An intermediate phase, where instead of showing the character's progress (eh), Kishimoto lets the other observers make it known that they are indeed on their way to greatness, by declaring that they will one day surpass their older generation equivalents or reach some other benchmark. Antagonists also get hyped pretty quickly, to serve as fodder for hyping up the protagonists about to defeat them (...)
4. Full resolution. A hypothetical state that hasn't really occurred yet for the most part. Since this is a Shounen manga, a "theme" is actually an excuse to become stronger.
I personally think that None of the characters have attained their full thematic resolution, but I can't be sure their themes will actually be addressed in their final battles.
Most older generation characters and antagonists don't have a theme at all. However, their "death" card may come along with a huge number of flashbacks: as people have already noted on NF, a sudden number of personal flashbacks seems to be a near certain announcement of death for older protagonists or antagonists. See: Sandaime, Sasori, Asuma, Deidara, Jiraiya...
Those don't work for current-generations though. As I've said, those are immortal. Or at least, their death doesn't last long.
III.5. Plotlines
Well, for the sake of visuals:
Note: Two major plotlines (just themes don't count) rarely compete for attention in the same arc. At best one of the other plotlines will get a quick mention, but not the main focus of the arc.
In the fourth arc of part II however, all remaining plotlines have started to converge! Not only the Kyuubi, Uchiha and Akatsuki plotlines, even the Danzou plotline may start to be included, only Kabumaru still isn't tied into it all! For this reason I was ecstatic this arc, no matter what is said of the content.
This leads me to believe that after the Danzou plotline is taken care of, the story will just be one straight dash to the finish line (with lots of fights in-between). No matter how hard one tries, a plot revelations still only takes a few panels after all.
Part II - The story structure breakdown
I. The first 3 chapter rule
The first 3 chapters rule states that, with very few exceptions, the following must appear, or at least be specifically mentioned, within the first 3 chapters of an arc:
- The main protagonists of the arc
- The main antagonists of the arc
- The main plotlines and developed relationships of the arc
- All the above mentioned will converge in the final phase
I.1. Characters
I'll let the table speak for itself:
Coincidence? I think not. Orochimaru did not appear in the first three chapters of the Chuunin exams arc, but did appear in the first 3 chapters of every sub-arc where he had a role: it depends on your definition of an "arc."
All characters that appear later on will receive at most a very minor role:
- only "introduction" attacks from the current-generations. See: team Gai, team 8, team Hebi.
- only "introduction" attacks from brand-new (or new enough, in terms of abilities shown) antagonists. See: Itachi and Kisame clones (clones!), Pein (only 1/6th of his bodies was fully used up, the rest only showed intro-level attacks, and he probably Still has the Nagato body around)
- however, older-generation protagonists and antagonists that have already been used can go all out, use all their remaining cards, and die. Examples: Deidara, Jiraiya.
- team Sand did get to play their cards, but were sent in to support the fights of the Konoha 9. Also, they are something of an exception among the support cast (like team Hebi, they're not part of the "core" support cast: the Konoha ex-genin are).
Basically, when team 8 didn't show up in the first 3 chapters, I knew that they were doomed to have a minor role this arc (though I didn't expect it to be This minor).
The one major exception to this rule is what I call "main arc support characters," of which the major representatives were Haku, Kimimaro and Chiyo. They answer the following conditions:
- they support the arc's main theme or character, then die that arc as soon as their role is accomplished
- they are connected to a protagonist or antagonist who Does appear within the first 3 chapters: Chiyo is Sasori's grandmother, Kimimaro is Orochimaru's faithful servant, Haku supports Zabuza.
Probably, because of their arc-specific support role, they need for the person they support to have a proper appearance first to allow a proper build-up. That, or the late appearance allows them to conserve their cards more effectively until they play them all out at once.
When team Hebi appeared, I thought that it would be the "main arc support" of this arc, but they're still alive so...
Poor Jiraiya by the way. He was both partly used and older-generation. Even Sandaime and Asuma had managed to get into the first 3 chapters of their respective arcs. Ah well.
I.2. Plotlines
Similarly, the plotlines are usually:
- hinted at the same time as the antagonists appear or is mentioned (basically, the plotline is to hunt down said antagonists)
- or announced (within the first 3 chapters) as a mission: to find Tsunade, to find Sasuke, to train yet again, etc...
Exception
A plotline not somewhat hinted at during the first 3 chapters will not be the main plotline of the given arc. However, the plotline of the Next arc or of a Future arc will often be hinted at some time during the arc in question:
- Sasori hinted at Orochimaru
- the Sai arc had Naruto move away from Kyuubi reliance, leading to a training arc
- throughout the training in the Hidan/Kakuzu arc, Naruto thought of Sasuke multiple times, leading... well... to the team Hebi arc
- during the team Hebi arc, I was certain that Pein would not move against Naruto That arc
That said, I was quite surprised at the amount of development Jiraiya, Pein and Konan got this arc. This sort of development is usually structurally reserved for an introduction phase (see later), but at the same time I'm happy that Kishimoto is using up these cards so fast, because strange as it may sound, there are too many of them right now.
In the end, everything connected back to the Uchihas.
II. Arc structure break-down
The first 3 chapters rule is the only concrete rule for numbers of chapters. However, arcs can usually be broken down into 3 phases:
- the intro phase, which lasts under a dozen chapters
- the obstacle/build-up phase(s)
- the final phase, with the main battle or encounter of the arc
There is no clear cut between the phases (indeed they are probably purposely muddled to avoid making transitions too abrupt), but the phases are still pretty obvious.
Part I has had relatively loose structures at times, but part II so far has been rather strict on structures. I suspect it will adopt looser structures in the second half of part II though.
What this rule is good for:
- getting a basic idea of the structure of this arc
- deducing plausible pacing accordingly
II.1. The intro phase
The intro phase includes the all-important "first 3 chapters," which I've already addressed.
Pace and content:
- this is the phase with most casual interactions
- this phase lasts overall under a dozen chapters usually
- fights this arc are usually short, under 3 chapters
- antagonists and protagonists may be on the move or preparing themselves, but most main confrontations don't begin yet
- it ends with most teams grouped up and ready to leave.
Interestingly enough, the short fights this phase may also be purposely "given" to the anime to avoid them catching up to the manga too quickly, while avoiding revealing too many cards this early into the arc.
II.2. The obstacle/build-up phase(s)
There can be several such phases. They may have one of the following purposes:
- Obstacle to final fight
- Build-up to final fight
- Parallel fights that also set the mood (Sandaime vs Orochimaru, Jiraiya vs Pein)
Note: current-gens who don't appear in the first 3 chapters won't even get a decent fight this section. Older gens may just die off though.
The purpose of this phase is mainly to structurally delay the major encounter of this arc. For the most part, mostly “used” or “disposable” cards get used.
Pace and content:
- This phase starts with some interactions before reaching the fight: searching, flashback, talks, etc.
- There is no strict condition on the length of the battles this arc: it depends on the number of cards each side can produce.
- Kishimoto may chose to make some random plot revelations that may affect future arcs: Sasori pointing to Orochimaru's location, Akatsuki's plan to conquer the world, who Naruto's parents are, etc.
This last point, to my knowledge, gets thrown in a bit randomly. However, the contents of the last point does not affect the conclusion of the Current arc.
The content of this arc is nearly unpredictable, as it is, in some ways, completely random (Itachi and Kisame super clones? Sasuke vs Deidara?). The only way to eventually predict it is via elimination. It's even hard to predict via connections, since as Deidara and Pein have shown this arc, Kishimoto can randomly make one up.
II.3. The final phase
This phase is usually the most significant, and involves:
- the major battle and defeat of a major opponent. Again, no fixed rule to battle length, save on the amount of cards each side can show.
- and/or a major plot advancement or revelations of some sort (Uchiha revelations or the likes)
- it may also have side battles that don't get developed much in the manga (probably to lengthen the anime instead), and involving non-essential cast, basically just to get rid of them (team Gai vs team Gai. *cough*)
All the major elements (the non-red herring ones, that is) that had been shown in the first 3 chapters, converge into this phase.
Part II:
II.4. Limitations
So far, this break-down has been working well for most of the first half of part II, save for the Jiraiya vs Pein section. However, if my predictions of a mega-arc (or two) are correct, we might soon end up with looser structures.
The Chuunin exams for example was a mega-arc with embedded mini-arcs:
- the Suna siblings appeared in first 3 chapters alright. The final fight of that mega-arc was Naruto vs Gaara.
- however, Orochimaru didn't appear then, but appeared within 3 chapters of the sub-arcs of that mega-arc.
So in the event of a mega-arc, what constitutes the "first 3 chapters" depends on what you consider an "arc." It's still not random though, and by paying attention, it should be possible to notice the beginning of a new sub-arc.
Also, these structural constraints still leave a lot of freedom:
- the first 3 chapters tell you who can be the main antagonists and antagonists, but don't tell you exactly which ones, nor how they will be matched up against one another
- the first 3 chapters also give a big hint on the plotline addressed, but it does not give the details (for example, it might state that there will be revelations about the Uchiha plotline, but won't tell you what these revelations are)
- Phase II is nearly completely random. So there's plenty of room for guesswork here, not that it would benefit the main plotline on the arc.
They sure do a good job narrowing choices down though, so they make the task of focusing predictions much easier. ^^
Note: I've said that the length of an arc section is dependent on the amount of “cards” each side can display. For this reason, it is quite possible for Part II to be longer (though by how much remains to be seen) than Part I: the cast isn't smaller, and being older, has bigger arsenals.
III. From the skeleton to the story: the expansion of the Naruto story
This is my attempt to guess the story creation process from the beginning to the end. Because we won't know for sure if I'm right until the story comes to an end, this will remain a theory until then. Albeit, an interesting one.
When doing this, I took into account the many rules I've come up with until now, as well as the fact that to the mangaka, the story must be easy to plan no matter where he's standing from.
For me, Madara's first appearance (the later revelations mattered less) marked what you might qualify as a turning point for my theories: it marked the convergence of the Kyuubi and Uchiha plotlines (back then, via the Akatsuki plotline. Now the Akatsuki element isn't even needed anymore).
Now, I also know my "First Three Chapters" rule as the "full circle" theory: what gets introduced first is also what gets resolved last. I had theorized that it applied to a manga level too: Naruto's bijuu plotline was the first introduced, and the Akatsuki aspect seemed to imply that it will be the last resolved aspect. The fact that the Akatsuki and Uchiha plotlines are the same reinforce that by connecting the goals of the two most important characters in the story: Naruto and Sasuke.
III.1. The Naruto core and expansion
See the following animated sequences:
The base of the story is Naruto and the demon he contains.
The story is then expanded by adding the obligatory Shounen rival. This rival has its own plotline, which is actually linked to the main character's own plotline.
To avoid the story being too linear, the Orochimaru aspect was added, not as part of the main plotlines, but as the major deviation from the central plotlines, the major obstacle. Now that it's been taken care of, the story proceeds again towards the main plotlines.
All sides are put into "stable" formations: the main protagonists into Team 7, while the Orochimaru aspect gets expanded into the Legendary Sannin aspect to serve as base for Team 7's training.
Finally, all sides get extras. The protagonist side gets the rest of the (now ex-) genin 15, and post-timeskip, the new team 7 and perhaps team Hebi join this list as well. The Orochimaru side gets the whole Sound following. The Kyuubi aspect gets expanded into 9 Bijuus, who in turn are the target of Akatsuki, who are actually the extra cronies of the Uchiha leaders.
And thus we have the story.
How the Danzou part fits into all this remains to be seen.
All the decks are in place! All that remains is to distribute them.
III.2. The story distribution
Kishimoto now has to advance the stories towards the listed goals. Note that the series can deviate or at least put on hold the progress towards the main plotlines, under a few conditions:
- it has to showcase something else: either showing more of the world (including new abilities - this is a shounen manga: the fighting is important), or showcase themes, therefore filling a satisfying "something new" quota
- the deviation, if not at all connected to the main plotlines, can only be used once. The second occurrence must lead back to the plotlines.
III.3. Note: the first half of Part II
Note that with these guidelines, the overall story becomes easy for Kishimoto to plan no matter what point of the story he's reached. With the Orochimaru deviation in mind, for example, he could put the Akatsuki aspect completely on hold while he plans each step of the Orochimaru build-up. Not only that, but should the editors ever decide that Naruto is becoming too boring, he can skip many of the intermediate steps and rush to the conclusion.
In particular, I'd like to give particular mention to the first half of Part II.
Before part II started, the manga team took several weeks off. During that time I think they planned out more or less the entirety of part II, not the details, but the general contents.
I believe it went something like this:
- Arc I: Showcase Sakura. Show Akatsuki goals. Others: team Sand, team Gai.
- Arc II: Showcase Kyuubi. Hint connection between Kyuubi and Sharingan. Others: new stable formation for Naruto.
- Arc III: Showcase Naruto and Shikamaru. Reveal Akatsuki goals somewhere along the line. Others: team 10.
- Arc IV: Showcase Sasuke. Convergence of the Akatsuki, Kyuubi, Uchiha and Danzou plotlines. Introduce Pein. Others: team 8, new stable formation for Sasuke.
-- end first half of part II --
- Arc V: ? I'll be sure to make a prediction as soon as the first 3 chapters show up.
The level of detail could have varied, of course. Because of this top-down approach, some elements were heavily emphasized while others were neglected, which might have seem confusing to the readers at points.
The rest of the arc creation process simply followed the creation and distribution rules.
Example: Arc IV:
See how it works?
IV. Saving the best for last? A distribution theory
Remember these?
You might have noticed that in my opinion, just about none of the characters have played out either their abilities cards or their thematic card to the max.
Hence my following theory: of the protagonists, the most powerful abilities and the final theme resolutions must be reserved for their last battle near the end of the story.
That doesn't sound Too far-fetched, does it?
IV.1. The main character decks that had to be played out anyway
Remember, as per various rules, the main characters:
- Have to be shown on a more regular basis than the support cast
- Are not exactly allowed to hold back against high-level opponents (matching rule)
- But benefit from a greater variety of abilities as well as various levels of power-ups, allowing them to fight to their heart's content without worrying about later power levels (they'll just gain a new power-up later)
As a result, as I've addressed in the part II structure breakdown, Kishimoto probably decided to simply have them go full out - for their post-skip training level in any case. This first half was probably designed with this in mind:
- Arc I: showcase Sakura and hype her to the max.
- Arc II: showcase Kyuubi and hype it quite a lot.
- Arc III: showcase Naruto and hype him to the max.
- Arc IV: showcase Sasuke and hype him to the max.
Basically, he played out most of their "normal" L3 cards, as well as their "hyping" via announcing in a non-too-subtle manner that they Will one day surpass their older-generation equivalent (hmm, Sasuke hasn't been shown surpassing Itachi yet, but close enough, besides he did surpass the Orochimaru benchmark).
In the meantime, Kishimoto likely has plenty of power-ups left for the second half of part II. All's good.
Then "all" he had to do was fill in the holes.
IV.2. The main support decks limitations
Unfortunately, the rest of the cast does not benefit from the variety or power-ups that the main characters do.
In part I, the main support cast gained a power-up via there being a training phase. However, it would be much harder to justify it in part II: it would have been unrealistic for the cast to improve little in 2.5 years, then suddenly reach a whole new level in 2.5 months.
Solution: instead of using up the support cast's post-timeskip cards or trying to find a way to create new ones, Kishimoto simply didn't use them at all.
The only support cast that got a decent treatment were:
- Gaara, who however lost Shukaku in the whole deal, and might thus be using a slightly different set of attacks in any eventual final battle. ie, new cards. Then again, even then, he only filled 3 chapters...
- Shikamaru, whose "cards" are tactics, thus making his arsenal potentially infinite. See my Shikamaru essay again on how he's a structural anomaly.
The rest of the cast though? Not once in the first half of Part II did they ever get pushed to their limits:
- either a sensei took over (even then, Gai only defeated a clone)
- or some other random cards were used to fill the protagonist cards (Kotetsu/Izumo and Aoba/Raidou)
- or a main character took over (easy since the first half of part II insisted pretty much on those)
- or they got a half-assed fight (clones wtf?)
- or... well... team 8.
Note though: as per the unique usage rule, most of those tricks will likely not get repeated. Good riddance.
Chouji never used any pills of any form. Lee never opened his gates. I'm Pretty sure that Neji-the-jounin knows more new moves than Hakke Kuushou.
Basically, the first half of part II bought time by playing up team 7's "normal" improvements (while not playing their final cards) and by advancing the plot some, while bringing in a whole plethora of very minor cards (the sensei, a few shinobi outside of the main, etc) and some new characters to delay the usage of any final cards from the support cast.
Notice by the way how this might have coordinated with the anime team. The lack of the support cast in the first half of part II was probably offset in Theory by their increased presence in the anime, via fillers and extension of support cast fights. It probably sounded like genius back then. :|
IV.3. Theory on the second half of part II
Here we go again. This may seem repetitive to those who've read my support cast essay, but those who didn't, they don't have to read it anymore.
The way I see it, Kishimoto Is obligated to show the support cast on a semi-regular basis. So we Will see them again in the second half of part II. When it happens, it will likely be under one of the two following conditions:
- either they never fight again, or get minor fights
- or they go full out for one final fanservice that prolong the end of the manga while giving Kishimoto loads of extra money for the trouble
... does the second possibility sound That unlikely?
Now the big objection I hear from people is that there aren't enough opponents left. Correction: there aren't enough Akatsuki Cronies left. Frankly, coming up with new powerful villains is the easiest thing in the world. Kishimoto did leave the L2 of some of the characters to the fillers (kind of), but I doubt he'll give All the L3 of the support cast to the anime.
My personal pet theory is that the Bijuu will somehow get unleashed. This would also explain why of the part II Bijuu decks, the Most we've seen of is intro-level: because Kishimoto has been reserving Those decks as well. But hey, that's just me. At worst Kishimoto could have:
- Pein come up with 10 extra bodies
- have Danzou cook up a war
- or have Madara pull out a bunch of powerful spares out of nowhere.
- it isn't difficult, honest!
Match-ups in the second half of part II could be:
- Sai vs Danzou, maybe after Danzou offs Tsunade first.
- Hebi vs Kabumaru. I'm not sure of the real importance of Kabumaru, but Sasuke is running out of decks, so he might be reserving them for those final bosses there. I could see Hebi confronting Kabumaru as Sasuke goes to his final destination.
- ex-genin 15 vs unleashed Bijuu (with eventually Shukaku left out of the deal if he's considered too used). The protagonist side would have 2 or 3 L3 decks on each side per bijuu, so it's a decent match-up.
- main characters vs final villains (Madara, Pein, not-sure-about-Konan, maybe Itachi again). Naruto's remaining cards, in particular, will probably be reserved for big fights from now on.
If my structure theory is at least partly correct, we're in for a hell of an end.
Conclusion
Main rules:
Main consequences:
Others:
- Distribution of abilities (current generation)
- Distribution of abilities (older generation)
- Distribution of themes
- First 3 chapters justification
- Story core theory
- Story expansion theory
- Example/theory of arc planning
So as a conclusion, this essay can be used for:
- Character defense (or at least explanations)
- Manga (structure) predictions
- Fake spoilers
Feel free to use the graphs too, as long as you leave the links so that people can find back the original essay.
Extra: So does it work?
I had already thought up and written over half these rules when the team Hebi arc started, scattered in my now obsolete older essays, though they were less precise than they are now. Based on what I had then, I wrote a prediction what's to become the team Hebi arc:
Global arc IV predictions: main cast, main battles, pacing, etc.
You can read the whole thread (or just the “This arc:” components of each), or just see my wrap-up below.
Keep in mind that I wrote this when only 3 chapters had started in that arc. Back then, it still wasn't clear if Sasuke or Orochimaru took over.
Here's how it fared: (most of the quoted parts are from the summary, some are from the main essay section. Do a sentence search in the original essay if you want to find back the other parts)
Predictions for this arc:
- main cast: team 7 / team Kakashi / team Yamato / whatever you call it. As in, Not team 8 or some other team.
While team Kakashi were protagonists this arc, it turned out that I was wrong about them getting the main ones. Instead...
- main final antagonists: Orochimaru / Sasuke. Maybe Itachi thrown in. As in, likely not other Akatsuki.
Sasuke was the main protagonist this arc instead, right before he became the main antagonist of the series (...). And ironically, I thought the main antagonist would be:
- mainly Orochimaru (hey, it wasn't clear yet if Sasuke won against him, I thought that Orochimaru had either taken over or was sharing with Sasuke), with Maybe some bits about Itachi thrown in. But it turned out that it was mostly about:
- Itachi with some Orochimaru thrown in.
Oh well. Structure right, proportions wrong. In any case:
- main developed characters: Sasuke, maybe Naruto (brother connection) and Kakashi (sharingan connection?).
So I got the “main developed character” right, but not the main protagonist right. I'm kind of wondering what I was thinking back then (it was over a year ago).
- main supporting cast: Kakashi? (Sharingan connection), Jiraiya? (Sannin connection), third mangekyou user? (lol?)
It turned out that it wasn't Kakashi's turn this arc.
Jiraiya's case was ironic: once Orochimaru was shown dead I thought he wouldn't have a role this arc. He did anyway. :| Instead of using his connection to Orochimaru, Kishimoto randomly created a connection to Pain. As for the Third Mangekyou User, although it was a genuine structural possibility, I was actually joking back then. :o
- main extra (ie, tag-alongs for non plot-affecting battles): team 8, some other team, Jiraiya, some custom-made character for this arc or nobody. If the answer isn't "nobody," then this cast will be involved in the build-up/obstacle phase.
Is it ironic that the answer was nearly “all of the above”? It was both team 8 and team Hebi. In any case, I knew it was doomed for team 8 as soon as they showed up, so I actually went through this arc with not too many problems (I didn't have any false expectations, eh)
- main plotline: Orochimaru / body transfer, or more focus on the Sharingan/Uchiha plotline.
Eh, turned out to be #2.
- duration: 343 to about 370+ ? (about 30 chapters, if previous arcs are any indication)
This was completely off. :P I did say back then that there can be multiple Obstacle/build-up phases, but I didn't expect it yet for this arc. It seems structure predictions are more or less accurate qualitatively, but not quantitatively (I've since realized that the only quantity rule aside the first 3 chapters rule is that the length for a battle is determined by the number of cards each side can produce).
Possible break-down: (note: the further along the timeline, the less accurate the chapter prediction)
- 346: last glimpses at the Sound situation, scene shifts back to Konoha
- 347 ~ 350: Konoha interactions. Various other scenes (Akatsuki? Sound?) can be randomly inserted as well, but would have minimal impact on the storyline.
- around 351: if another team or character is supposed to appear for the build-up phase, it appears and leaves around this chapter at latest. This can involve either team 8, some other random team, Kakashi or Jiraiya. Otherwise, we just have team 7 leaving.
- 352 ~ 363: build-up/obstacle phase? Starts with a few chapters of running, centers on the first prolonged battle of this arc (involving either any "extra" team to show up, or simply team 7)
- 364 ~ 378: final phase and final battles. Will involve Sasuke in one way or another.
Again, most durations were off. Also, while team Hebi did show up, Sasuke was the one who fought in the first phase II. But the final phase did involve Sasuke (hey! It seems obvious Now, but you should have seen the number of people predicting team Konoha vs Pein!).
Ironically, I did predict the possibility of a more complicated structure this arc (I.e. another phase II):
It is possible that this is the final arc of the first half of part II, leading Kishimoto to depart from schemes he's used so far to make things more complicated.
I doubted it back then, but oh well. Structure predictions aren't really about your own opinions. :|
Other stuff:
- Well, it depends. I'm just saying that this likely won't be the arc that Naruto gets kidnapped by Akatsuki, or anything like that. If Naruto were to be kidnapped, the responsible Akatsuki would at least have been shown by now.
The above had me sit through many a fake spoilers about Pein going after Naruto. Though I did get nervous at times. It turns out that I should have trusted my own predictions more. ~_~
- The certainty that team 8 would be left out had me sit through many a clamoring about how team 8 is going to beat up Pein, Konan, Zetsu or Madara. Ironically, in the process, I've earned quite a few people calling my predictions off and saying that I'm biased against team 8 (and certain pairings). *shrugs*
- Also, while there can be many Phase II phases, there is only One final phase per arc. Once the Sasuke vs Itachi fight was over, the whole arc was just about over: all remaining battles could Only be short, cut-off, insignificant, etc. etc. Basically, I didn't get my hopes up about team 8 “finally” getting its turn. True enough, the “battle” was skimmed over then interrupted, there were a couple of chapters of flashbacks, and all the Konoha folks were back at home.
- Oh, and, for the lol's: As per “something new” rule, Sasuke had to get a power-up sooner or later, And trim down any “obsolete” attack sets. When Sasuke went full out against Deidara, then went into a full confrontation against Itachi, I thought that Sasuke would somehow lose his Raiton attack set. It turns out I got the set wrong, and he lost the Curse Seal set instead. Also, since he seemed to have used up most of his “normal” attacks, I knew he'd get a new power-up sooner or later, though I admit I didn't Quite expect it this quickly or This way. :o
- The Naruto case was even less expected: Kakashi did mention a Yin/Yang chakra, and Naruto could have gained a new attack set next arc training in that without new power-ups. When the frog key was revealed, he had a guaranteed power-up, so imagine my surprise when he swallowed a crow on top of that. :o
In any case, I'll be sure to make a new prediction once the first 3 chapters of This arc are out. And for those of you who are fans of the support cast, you can start cheering when at the start of a new arc, all the support cast suddenly shows themselves. ^__^
So anyway, this concludes what I consider to be my mega-essays trilogy, and marks my retirement from essays of this scale. You can find the rest of my essays here. Cheers!
Naruto is a Weekly Shounen Manga, so it can't be planned like some normal novel or fanfic: it likely has to conform to specific structure requirements to get the "okay" from the editors. I've thus been trying to analyze it from a structural approach for a while now.
NF version
Index
Part I - A deck of cards: a theory on Kishimoto's distribution method
I. The creation and distribution rules
II. Major rule consequences
III. The decks of cards
Part II - The story structure breakdown
I. The first 3 chapter rule
II. Arc structure break-down
III. From the skeleton to the story: the expansion of the Naruto story
IV. Saving the best for last? A distribution theory
Conclusion
Index
Part I - A deck of cards: a theory on Kishimoto's distribution method
I. The creation and distribution rules
I.1. The "something new" rules
I.2. The matching rules
I.3. The progress rules
II. Major rule consequences
II.1. Character abilities
II.2. Themes and character development
II.3. Plotline implications
III. The decks of cards
III.1. The decks
III.2. The decks battle match-ups
III.3. The ability cards distribution
III.4. The thematic cards distribution
III.5. Plotlines
Part II - The story structure breakdown
I. The first 3 chapter rule
I.1. Characters
I.2. Plotlines
II. Arc structure break-down
II.1. The intro phase
II.2. The obstacle/build-up phase(s)
II.3. The final phase
II.4. Limitations
III. From the skeleton to the story: the expansion of the Naruto story
III.1. The Naruto core and expansion
III.2. The story distribution
III.3. Note: the first half of Part II
IV. Saving the best for last? A distribution theory
IV.1. The main character decks that had to be played out anyway
IV.2. The main support decks limitations
IV.3. Theory on the second half of part II
Conclusion
This essay renders most of my previous structure essays obsolete, including:
- My Arc IV global predictions
- My Part II structure essay
- Why I'm really optimistic for the support cast in the second half of part II
- My very old essay on themes
That said, for the purpose of this essay, I had written a separate one on Shikamaru. Over 60% of structural exceptions seem to apply to him. =\
Part I - A deck of cards: a theory on Kishimoto's distribution method
Naruto is a Weekly Shounen Manga. It means Kishimoto can't just write anything that comes through his mind like a fan could write a fanfic. Obvious? Duh.
In a nutshell:
I. The creation and distribution rules
Below are a number of rules I think Kishimoto has to follow. I call them the "These are so obvious, they can't be wrong!" rules. =\
I.1. The "something new" rules
Thou shalt not repeat the same thing over and over.
Naruto is a weekly manga. If Kishimoto gets repetitive either on a weekly basis or on a more general level, he'd probably get fired in no time.
I personally distinguish at least 3 major variants of this rule:
- the "something new each chapter" corollary
- the "unique usage" constraint
- the "specialization" constraint
"Something new each chapter"
On a chapter basis, Kishimoto likely has to show something new each chapter, be it:
- a new jutsu
- a new character development
- a new plotline development
These can even be something extremely half-assed like:
- Naruto realizing that he shouldn't use Kyuubi so much
- Yet another Rasengan training phase
- Yet another variation of a same jutsu (puppets, rasengan, chidori)
- a combo of existing attacks
- showing the effects of a jutsu that only happened off manga-panel before
- explaining a jutsu that just happened before
- failing an attack that always succeeded before
(hey don't look at me).
The "unique usage" constraint
The jutsu example is the most obvious. As Hexa once put it: each jutsu has at most one (fully visible) effective use. If it doesn't fail afterwards, it's under the following exceptions:
- both usages occur in the same chapter (one in flashback, one in non-flashback - see Uchiha instances)
- the subsequent uses are minor, or just story support roles (Itachi using Tsukiyomi on Sasuke). In the meantime, something else that chapter must fill the "new" quotas instead.
Otherwise, it simply fails (which ironically counts towards the "new" quota). Notice how Naruto has only ever successfully used normal Rasengan once: against Kabuto. Ever since then he's had to rely on more powerful variations to get any effect.
And yes, I lol'ed when both Tsukiyomi and Amaterasu failed against Sasuke (even if it was later explained that it was on purpose). Used goods. These attacks likely won't ever be used again, believe it! Sasuke's even got a new MS to do different techniques.
I believe this to be true of levels of character development as well: a character won't realize the same thing over and over, or achieve the same thing over and over.
The "specialization" constraint
This is likely Kishimoto's direct compromise between ease of planning and the necessity to keep showing something new.
TenshiOni once pointed out just how many types of abilities Kishimoto has actually created. However, at the same time, he created many characters, and had to divide these abilities among them.
In order to avoid character design redundancy and ensure that the characters abilities don't overlap, Kishimoto has no choice but to ensure that each character specializes, not only in terms of abilities, but in terms of themes as well.
The great advantage of this method is that it makes planning Considerably easier: Kishimoto can basically label that "This fight is about puppets," and come up with as many variations on puppet attacks as he can think of for that one fight, without ever worrying about how it may limit choices for other characters. Likewise, two characters with different themes won't be realizing the same thing throughout the manga, thus in theory avoiding thematic repetitiveness.
The downside of this is that this approach makes the majority of characters ability and thematic one-trick ponies. Now you know why.
I.2. The matching rules
Thine final villain shalt not be defeated by fodder throwing kunai.
Seems pretty obvious again, right? And since this is a Shounen manga, 70% of the fight consists of "Who fights who how."
Again, I see several variants. Within each battle:
- each side must be at least seemingly matched in strength (ie: each side must appear to be getting the upper hand about half the time)
- each side must be matched in terms of new abilities shown
- the protagonist side must match up in terms of importance - there is no lower limit to what a protagonist can fight, but the upper categories of villains are reserved.
Matching in strength
If one side cannot "put up a good fight," the fight cannot last and simply gets cut off. The perception that both sides are evenly matched up can be a mere illusion, but during the fight, each side must appear to be gaining an upper hand about half the time, or at least, give the illusion that the situation is being turned around. The outcome must not seem Too predictable.
Note: teamwork can compensate for a weaker protagonist side.
Matching in new
A brand new Akatsuki with an impressive arsenal won't get defeated by characters wielding "the same old tricks" of kawarimi, kunai, whatever. Those abilities can be used, but only alongside major new attacks or major upgrades to existing attacks.
This and the "match in strength" rule explains for example why structurally, Chiyo had to be created: to fill both the "strength" quota and the "new" quota on the protagonist side against Sasori's entire arsenal.
The downside of this is that you can forget about future victories using "nothing but the basics the characters have already shown." (though new tactical tricks and upgrades to existing tricks can be considered "something new")
Note: again, teamwork can compensate for a "weaker" protagonist side.
Match in importance
There is no lower limit to whom a protagonist can fight, but there Is an upper limit: the major villains who truly affect the central plotlines can only be defeated by the main characters who also have an impact in those plotlines.
Also, older generations are just about not allowed to defeat anybody. More on that later.
I.3. The progress rules
Thine character shalt progress.
Well, you heard me.
Actually, the more accurate description would be: the new quota can either be filled by either:
- something completely new
- or by attacks of the same nature but of increasing power.
This applies within a battle (after all, you're not going to use weaker attacks if a stronger one failed) and for the -final- attacks of each successive battle.
Simple example for the second point:
- Naruto's rasengan isn't necessarily more impressive than summoning Gamabunta. But they're different categories of attacks, so who cares?
- However, each time Naruto brings out a Rasengan variation, it must be more powerful than the last. He also has to show more tails with each Kyuubi transformation.
The same applies to character resolution: for each theme, each level of character resolution can only be used once, and must be used in progressing order (no reason for the character to regress). Otherwise, they aren't addressed at all!
In the same way, each impediment to plotline progress can probably only be used once. The next arc of the same nature must show some kind of progress.
Now, all these wouldn't be a problem if Kishimoto could either:
- just endlessly power up the characters without any justifications whatsoever
- or just use a different set of abilities each time (same with themes)
But remember:
- the majority of characters are specialists
- any significant power up must be somehow justified
- the characters can't just hold back/save attacks for a next battle if they're confronting opponents much stronger than them
II. Major rule consequences
II.1. Character abilities
First, note the "unique usage" constraint in action:
- Deidara skipped C3 against Sasuke (then ended with the more powerful C4 and self-explosion)
- Naruto didn't get Asuma's chakra blades (used goods)
- Master summons are also "used goods," which explains the ease with which Manda was discarded.
- Sakura's super strength was used goods, so after her fight against Sasori she never got to really use it again...
- Tsukiyomi and Amaterasu? Well, there you go.
- We also shouldn't be surprised if we don't see Shinraishin by Ino or Hinata's filler jutsu: they're both used goods from -Part I-. Even if they do have it, they'd be of no structural use in the manga.
The biggest victim to structural considerations however is Naruto, which led to many a Naruto-bashing thread. Even most of the Akatsuki only have one or two major categories of abilities: Sasori had poisoned puppets, Deidara had explosions, Hidan had immortality, Kakuzu had tentacles + 5 hearts. Naruto has at least 3 "normal" categories:
- Kage Bunshin
- Rasengan/Fuuton
- Kuchiyose
- and he also has multiple levels of power-ups.
However:
- As the main character, he has to fill the biggest amount of fights, forcing him to spread out his abilities the thinnest to save something for the next fights.
- As per the "progress" rule, he Has to show something more powerful each fight (at least for a given category). But he's not allowed to hold back against the S-rank opponents he faces (matching rule). Result: after 2.5 years of training, he Had to come back weak enough to leave room for improvement.
- Finally, as per the "unique usage" rule, every time he learns something new, it must turn out to be either insufficient or unreliable, forcing him to backtrack on the "used goods." This explains why he had to backtrack on Oodama Rasengan, KN4 And Fuuton Rasenshuriken.
Which unfortunately for Naruto, makes him look as though he's getting nowhere. Poor guy.
To make things worse, the explanations of his attacks, which could otherwise have been decently cool, are instead diluted out through chapters and chapters of training. Result: by the time they're done, they've taken so long that many people don't care anymore.
By contrast, Sasuke dealt with the problem by barely showing up for 3 arcs, then showing the blunt of his improvements in just one arc (including one-time power-up via assimilation of Orochimaru), making him look uber-badass. lol.
Kishimoto dealt with the rest of the support cast in an even more simple way: he just about showed nothing of them in the first half of part II, and found just about every way possible for the opponents to be taken care of by someone else instead (when there were opponents in the first place...).
On the other hand, this does have positive predictive implications. For example, if Sakura has another major fight, then it is certain that it won't be mostly based on her strength and anti-poison abilities (they may still be used, but no longer as the major factors), and she won't be using old tricks by others such as Kabuto's chakra blade or Shizune's poison cloud either.
II.2. Themes and character development
Apart from abilities, the other element with a degree of importance in Naruto is character development, especially themed character development.
I had addressed the themes aspect long time ago in my themes essay. Basically, Kishimoto designs a character Around a theme, not the other way round. This means a character's entire design and background is made in a way to bring out the One theme most. It also allows Kishimoto to easily avoid using the same theme twice.
Unfortunately, this leads to the problem of theme specialization.
When Kishimoto comes up with a new theme, he creates a brand new character around the theme, the latest examples being Yamato (addressing the jinchuuriki aspect) and Sai (addressing the "brother" theme - kind of). Well... team Hebi is even more recent, but the Sai and Yamato examples are more obvious.
The other advantage of creating a new character instead of using an existing one is that by revealing new background, new attacks and such, Kishimoto is able to fill more manga pages, which translates into more money...
Unfortunately, as with abilities, this specialization explains the often surprising lack of depth from the support cast:
- Team Gai's non-reaction upon hearing of Gaara's kidnapping. Even Lee!
- Ino and Chouji's relatively little response to Asuma's death compared to Shikamaru (Asuma's death was fodder for Shikamaru's development and only his)
- Team 8's non-reaction to the revelation that Naruto is a jinchuuriki.
- Hell, why don't Jiraiya and Tsunade have a serious heart-to-heart talk with Naruto and Sakura on their respective problems? Why don't anybody else for that matter?
This is simply Kishimoto not allowing other characters to participate in themes that are not "theirs," thereby preventing them from using up someone else's theme cards (or something).
In theory, any character who's had trouble with family could have deviated from his main theme a bit and confronted Naruto on the brother aspect, and Kakashi could have helped with the jinchuuriki aspect (just give him a few new seals). This would have made perfect sense for giving more depth to a character. Instead, when faced with a theme that's not "theirs," the support cast doesn't react at all.
Only the main characters and Shikamaru (see separate essay) are truly allowed more thematic freedom. Gaara, whose theme (jinchuuriki) is closest to Naruto's, also has a relatively larger thematic freedom, but his themes still mirror the ones relevant to Naruto's jinchuuriki aspect. Notice his non-impact on the Sasuke aspect. Saying 1 or 2 sentences doesn't count. =\
II.3. Plotline implications
You know, this part would have probably been more useful if the manga wasn't this advanced already...
The way I see it, Kishimoto never stalls the manga using the same method twice. The second time, the plot Must advance.
- since the Zabuza arc, we've never had another random mission arc that didn't somehow involve one of the major plotlines
- we probably won't ever had a chuunin exams arc again
- the first "save Sasuke" (against Gaara) arc in part I "succeeded." The second one failed and led to much more plot advancement.
- in part II, we only had one "save Jinchuuriki arc."
- arguably, the Zombie arc was not of much plot use, but it was the only major part II training arc.
- we had 2 part II "save Sasuke" arcs, but the second one led to major plot advancement.
Basically, the last thing to be worried about is for two arcs to have the exact same outcome. Even if Naruto fails yet again to save Sasuke, you'd at least get Some sort of new development.
III. The decks of cards
With all the mentioned rules, you can probably understand the following analogy now: each character basically possesses a finite deck of abilities and development cards. The usage condition is as following:
- there are some cards that Kishimoto has to play, and others that are optional
- however, any card can only be used in a significant way once.
- for any one character, the cards must be used in increasing level of power/development level.
The main types of cards (that I can think of are):
- jutsu/ability cards
- character revelation and development cards
Apart from all that, there are some pure plotline cards thrown in somewhere, such as the "revelation" of Akatsuki's true plan and of the "secret" that Yondaime was Naruto's father, but I have yet to find a specific rule on how these particular cards get used. They don't take up many panels anyway. Oh well.
In any case, Kishimoto has to fill out a finite amount of chapters, with a finite deck of cards, in increasing order.
III.1. The decks
Protagonist side:
The main characters (team 7) form the "skeleton" of the story. They are allowed the most abilities and the most thematic freedom, and they hold "essential" cards that have to be used (in terms of growing stronger and affecting the plot). On the other hand, there are very few of them.
The main support cast (rest of the ex-genin 15) by contrast form the meat of the story: they're much closer to one-trick ponies, both for abilities and for themes, but there are many more of them.
Older-generation protagonists are usually only there to make the current-gen look good. =\
The main characters and main support cast form the "Shounen core:" since this is a Shounen manga, the manga centers on the progress of the -current- generation. Basically, they're the only ones who are important (not to mention immortal), and all the older folks are basically just there to make them look good.
Note: Team Sand and perhaps Sai may form only fit half the conditions of the Shounen core: they are older (?), and/or implied to be very powerful, so the manga focuses less on the "struggles" they go through as they grow up, so to say. But they are handy allies to have along.
Antagonist side:
I personally divide the antagonists into the "important" ones, that actually affect the plot, and the "cronies", who may be powerful, but are just there to fill pages.
Fillers:
Finally, you have a bunch of filler-ish characters.
Side note: I forgot who it was in the forums who first said that in Shounen mangas, the main protagonist Has to have twice the amount of panel time as anybody else. For the longest time, Hinata's Fan's character panel count seemed to confirm the fact:
http://forums.narutofan.com/showpost.php?p=3320454&postcount=98
However, with the Hebi arc, Sasuke has gone well beyond half of Naruto's panel time. This could lead to one of two following possibilities:
- either he's about to get sidelined for a long while again
- or the editors have decided that he's too popular to hold back, and have thus granted him main character status.
III.2. The decks battle match-ups
Notice how structurally convenient the Chuunin exams were: instead of having to create many new characters of the same-ish power level as the then genin 15, Kishimoto made said genin fight each other.
Also, that's right, the older generation aren't allowed significant victories:
- Sandaime, Jiraiya, and Tsunade failed kill Orochimaru.
- Jiraiya defeated only 1/6th of Pein
- Asuma got killed
- Chiyo served mainly as support to Sakura's showcasing
- Gai defeated a mere Clone.
Whoo-hoo. Like wow. Unfair, isn't it? Only Kakashi, as ½ main character, may escape the rules somewhat.
Observation: The size of a battle is directly linked to the size of the ability deck of each side (including explanations etc):
- During the Chuunin exams, most characters only got battles of 1 or 2 chapters, especially those who had already introduced their skills in the first or second exams. Only those with special abilities (bijuu, gates etc) could fit longer battles.
- In the Rescue Arc, the Sound 4 could for the most part fill 3 solo battle-chapters + 1 chapter non-solo.
- Akatsuki seem made to fill 10 to 12 battle chapters each (!).
- The "big" bosses are capable of filling even more battles. Orochimaru filled about 20, Pein filled about 8 with just one body.
Note 1: the ones setting the length of a battle are the antagonists, not the protagonists! Maybe it's because they're about to die off, whereas the protagonists can always save for a next battle. Unless they're about to die, that is, in which case they go full out.
Note 2: probably to avoid having nothing but jutsus, Kishimoto very often establishes either a thematic or a background link between the protagonist and the antagonist side. See:
- the first half of part I (Naruto themes)
- the first half of part II: Chiyo as Sasori's grandmother, Hidan and Kakuzu just happen to have killed off people Asuma knew, Deidara held a grudge against Sharingan, and Jiraiya just happened to be Konan and Pein's sensei.
- it's math really. Connections = more interaction panels = more chapters = more $$$. Don't be surprised if Madara turns out to be Naruto's mother's cousin's brother-in-law's roommate.
Also, as the manga progressed, the protagonist side has become increasingly poorly matched against the antagonist side (if not in terms of strength, then in terms of "new": see matching rules).
- During the Chuunin exams, many battles could afford to be one on one.
- By the time of the Chuunin exams, only Neji and Chouji could fill in the quotas on their own (Neji being one year older, and Chouji having 3 pills). Kiba, Shikamaru and Lee had to be joined by the Sand siblings to use up the antagonist's decks.
- With Akatsuki, even more battles are used up: Deidara fought Gaara, then Naruto + Kakashi, then Sasuke. Hidan + Kakuzu faced not only team 10, but Kotetsu/Izumo + Raidou/Aoba + Naruto/Yamato as well.
III.3. The ability cards distribution
The younger generation protagonists, for the most part, goes by levels of abilities that increase over time, with eventually intermediary power-ups.
Older generations (antagonist or protagonist) for the most part start off more powerful, and may get several sets of attacks, that are either:
- completely different sets of attacks (example: Orochimaru)
- or many variations within a same category of attacks, with more powerful finish with each successive battle (Sasori's puppets, Deidara's explosions)
Finally, you have the occasional remaining extras. They show off one category of attack (with an eventual a total of 1 move) and that's that. Page fillers. I won't focus on them.
A level or a set of attacks can be further divided:
- introduction: a hint at the character's abilities. These can be separate from a main battle (even in separate arcs). Examples: Sasori hinting his abilities against Kankurou, Sasuke hinting his power against team Yamato, Hidan laying in his circle after defeating Nibi, etc.
- main arsenal: the main of the attacks, which basically consists of as many variations of an attack type as Kishimoto can think of: Sasori's many puppets, Deidara's many explosion types and Sasuke's Raiton arsenals. These also include combos, hyping and explanations instead of something actually new...
- trump card: when applicable, one side may bring out a final, "ultimate"-ish attack. Good examples are Naruto's Fuuton Rasen-Shuriken, Deidara's suicide explosion, Sasuke's Kirin. and Itachi's Susanoo.
Now, focusing on the main and main support characters:
- L0: the ability of the cast at the beginning of the series.
- L1: the ability during the Chuunin exams. Level at which most of the support cast is introduced.
- L2: the ability during the rescue arc (due from training after the exams).
- L3: post-timeskip ability level.
Others:
- + : extra intermediate level due to training (Kuchiyose, Fuuton Rasen-shuriken, etc)
- * : extra intermediate level due to power-ups (Kyuubi, Sharingan, curse seal)
- MaxH: maximum hype. See "themes" sections.
- () : introduction (not full revelation of that level)
Note: The ability level varies between characters. Team Gai's L1 is the Rookie 9's L2, etc.
As you can see, Naruto and Sasuke manage to fill a bigger amount of chapters thanks to either power-ups or mini-training arcs.
By contrast, neither Sakura nor the rest of the support cast have this luxury, so they can structurally only fit into a limited amount of major battles. In short, the reasons for Sakura standing there "doing nothing" are structural: she's got the overall panel presence of a main character, but an ability deck akin to the rest of the support cast. Bummer. Notice how Sai and Yamato have started standing around too.
That said, I'm not too worried about whether Kishimoto can come up with a decent battle for the main support cast later on: all he did was give the L3 introduction for most of them so far. I'm pretty sure Kishimoto can come up with several Jyuuken variations, several Taijutsu + gates variations, several bug-attacks variations, several weapon attacks variations... with combos on top of it all.
For reference, the older generations:
III.4. The thematic cards distribution
Focusing on themes, I personally divide thematic resolution for the current-gen into the following phases:
1. Theme introduction. If a confrontation against Naruto occurs, I include Naruto's defeat of the character into the introduction, because they always occur in the same arc.
2. Theme mid-resolution. The character proves that he has assimilated the lesson by fighting in its name.
Note: the characters can usually only have so many mid-resolutions (ie, 1). Otherwise, they'd be repeating themselves without achieving anything, a structural no-no.
3. Max hype. An intermediate phase, where instead of showing the character's progress (eh), Kishimoto lets the other observers make it known that they are indeed on their way to greatness, by declaring that they will one day surpass their older generation equivalents or reach some other benchmark. Antagonists also get hyped pretty quickly, to serve as fodder for hyping up the protagonists about to defeat them (...)
4. Full resolution. A hypothetical state that hasn't really occurred yet for the most part. Since this is a Shounen manga, a "theme" is actually an excuse to become stronger.
I personally think that None of the characters have attained their full thematic resolution, but I can't be sure their themes will actually be addressed in their final battles.
Most older generation characters and antagonists don't have a theme at all. However, their "death" card may come along with a huge number of flashbacks: as people have already noted on NF, a sudden number of personal flashbacks seems to be a near certain announcement of death for older protagonists or antagonists. See: Sandaime, Sasori, Asuma, Deidara, Jiraiya...
Those don't work for current-generations though. As I've said, those are immortal. Or at least, their death doesn't last long.
III.5. Plotlines
Well, for the sake of visuals:
Note: Two major plotlines (just themes don't count) rarely compete for attention in the same arc. At best one of the other plotlines will get a quick mention, but not the main focus of the arc.
In the fourth arc of part II however, all remaining plotlines have started to converge! Not only the Kyuubi, Uchiha and Akatsuki plotlines, even the Danzou plotline may start to be included, only Kabumaru still isn't tied into it all! For this reason I was ecstatic this arc, no matter what is said of the content.
This leads me to believe that after the Danzou plotline is taken care of, the story will just be one straight dash to the finish line (with lots of fights in-between). No matter how hard one tries, a plot revelations still only takes a few panels after all.
Part II - The story structure breakdown
I. The first 3 chapter rule
The first 3 chapters rule states that, with very few exceptions, the following must appear, or at least be specifically mentioned, within the first 3 chapters of an arc:
- The main protagonists of the arc
- The main antagonists of the arc
- The main plotlines and developed relationships of the arc
- All the above mentioned will converge in the final phase
I.1. Characters
I'll let the table speak for itself:
Coincidence? I think not. Orochimaru did not appear in the first three chapters of the Chuunin exams arc, but did appear in the first 3 chapters of every sub-arc where he had a role: it depends on your definition of an "arc."
All characters that appear later on will receive at most a very minor role:
- only "introduction" attacks from the current-generations. See: team Gai, team 8, team Hebi.
- only "introduction" attacks from brand-new (or new enough, in terms of abilities shown) antagonists. See: Itachi and Kisame clones (clones!), Pein (only 1/6th of his bodies was fully used up, the rest only showed intro-level attacks, and he probably Still has the Nagato body around)
- however, older-generation protagonists and antagonists that have already been used can go all out, use all their remaining cards, and die. Examples: Deidara, Jiraiya.
- team Sand did get to play their cards, but were sent in to support the fights of the Konoha 9. Also, they are something of an exception among the support cast (like team Hebi, they're not part of the "core" support cast: the Konoha ex-genin are).
Basically, when team 8 didn't show up in the first 3 chapters, I knew that they were doomed to have a minor role this arc (though I didn't expect it to be This minor).
The one major exception to this rule is what I call "main arc support characters," of which the major representatives were Haku, Kimimaro and Chiyo. They answer the following conditions:
- they support the arc's main theme or character, then die that arc as soon as their role is accomplished
- they are connected to a protagonist or antagonist who Does appear within the first 3 chapters: Chiyo is Sasori's grandmother, Kimimaro is Orochimaru's faithful servant, Haku supports Zabuza.
Probably, because of their arc-specific support role, they need for the person they support to have a proper appearance first to allow a proper build-up. That, or the late appearance allows them to conserve their cards more effectively until they play them all out at once.
When team Hebi appeared, I thought that it would be the "main arc support" of this arc, but they're still alive so...
Poor Jiraiya by the way. He was both partly used and older-generation. Even Sandaime and Asuma had managed to get into the first 3 chapters of their respective arcs. Ah well.
I.2. Plotlines
Similarly, the plotlines are usually:
- hinted at the same time as the antagonists appear or is mentioned (basically, the plotline is to hunt down said antagonists)
- or announced (within the first 3 chapters) as a mission: to find Tsunade, to find Sasuke, to train yet again, etc...
Exception
A plotline not somewhat hinted at during the first 3 chapters will not be the main plotline of the given arc. However, the plotline of the Next arc or of a Future arc will often be hinted at some time during the arc in question:
- Sasori hinted at Orochimaru
- the Sai arc had Naruto move away from Kyuubi reliance, leading to a training arc
- throughout the training in the Hidan/Kakuzu arc, Naruto thought of Sasuke multiple times, leading... well... to the team Hebi arc
- during the team Hebi arc, I was certain that Pein would not move against Naruto That arc
That said, I was quite surprised at the amount of development Jiraiya, Pein and Konan got this arc. This sort of development is usually structurally reserved for an introduction phase (see later), but at the same time I'm happy that Kishimoto is using up these cards so fast, because strange as it may sound, there are too many of them right now.
In the end, everything connected back to the Uchihas.
II. Arc structure break-down
The first 3 chapters rule is the only concrete rule for numbers of chapters. However, arcs can usually be broken down into 3 phases:
- the intro phase, which lasts under a dozen chapters
- the obstacle/build-up phase(s)
- the final phase, with the main battle or encounter of the arc
There is no clear cut between the phases (indeed they are probably purposely muddled to avoid making transitions too abrupt), but the phases are still pretty obvious.
Part I has had relatively loose structures at times, but part II so far has been rather strict on structures. I suspect it will adopt looser structures in the second half of part II though.
What this rule is good for:
- getting a basic idea of the structure of this arc
- deducing plausible pacing accordingly
II.1. The intro phase
The intro phase includes the all-important "first 3 chapters," which I've already addressed.
Pace and content:
- this is the phase with most casual interactions
- this phase lasts overall under a dozen chapters usually
- fights this arc are usually short, under 3 chapters
- antagonists and protagonists may be on the move or preparing themselves, but most main confrontations don't begin yet
- it ends with most teams grouped up and ready to leave.
Interestingly enough, the short fights this phase may also be purposely "given" to the anime to avoid them catching up to the manga too quickly, while avoiding revealing too many cards this early into the arc.
II.2. The obstacle/build-up phase(s)
There can be several such phases. They may have one of the following purposes:
- Obstacle to final fight
- Build-up to final fight
- Parallel fights that also set the mood (Sandaime vs Orochimaru, Jiraiya vs Pein)
Note: current-gens who don't appear in the first 3 chapters won't even get a decent fight this section. Older gens may just die off though.
The purpose of this phase is mainly to structurally delay the major encounter of this arc. For the most part, mostly “used” or “disposable” cards get used.
Pace and content:
- This phase starts with some interactions before reaching the fight: searching, flashback, talks, etc.
- There is no strict condition on the length of the battles this arc: it depends on the number of cards each side can produce.
- Kishimoto may chose to make some random plot revelations that may affect future arcs: Sasori pointing to Orochimaru's location, Akatsuki's plan to conquer the world, who Naruto's parents are, etc.
This last point, to my knowledge, gets thrown in a bit randomly. However, the contents of the last point does not affect the conclusion of the Current arc.
The content of this arc is nearly unpredictable, as it is, in some ways, completely random (Itachi and Kisame super clones? Sasuke vs Deidara?). The only way to eventually predict it is via elimination. It's even hard to predict via connections, since as Deidara and Pein have shown this arc, Kishimoto can randomly make one up.
II.3. The final phase
This phase is usually the most significant, and involves:
- the major battle and defeat of a major opponent. Again, no fixed rule to battle length, save on the amount of cards each side can show.
- and/or a major plot advancement or revelations of some sort (Uchiha revelations or the likes)
- it may also have side battles that don't get developed much in the manga (probably to lengthen the anime instead), and involving non-essential cast, basically just to get rid of them (team Gai vs team Gai. *cough*)
All the major elements (the non-red herring ones, that is) that had been shown in the first 3 chapters, converge into this phase.
Part II:
II.4. Limitations
So far, this break-down has been working well for most of the first half of part II, save for the Jiraiya vs Pein section. However, if my predictions of a mega-arc (or two) are correct, we might soon end up with looser structures.
The Chuunin exams for example was a mega-arc with embedded mini-arcs:
- the Suna siblings appeared in first 3 chapters alright. The final fight of that mega-arc was Naruto vs Gaara.
- however, Orochimaru didn't appear then, but appeared within 3 chapters of the sub-arcs of that mega-arc.
So in the event of a mega-arc, what constitutes the "first 3 chapters" depends on what you consider an "arc." It's still not random though, and by paying attention, it should be possible to notice the beginning of a new sub-arc.
Also, these structural constraints still leave a lot of freedom:
- the first 3 chapters tell you who can be the main antagonists and antagonists, but don't tell you exactly which ones, nor how they will be matched up against one another
- the first 3 chapters also give a big hint on the plotline addressed, but it does not give the details (for example, it might state that there will be revelations about the Uchiha plotline, but won't tell you what these revelations are)
- Phase II is nearly completely random. So there's plenty of room for guesswork here, not that it would benefit the main plotline on the arc.
They sure do a good job narrowing choices down though, so they make the task of focusing predictions much easier. ^^
Note: I've said that the length of an arc section is dependent on the amount of “cards” each side can display. For this reason, it is quite possible for Part II to be longer (though by how much remains to be seen) than Part I: the cast isn't smaller, and being older, has bigger arsenals.
III. From the skeleton to the story: the expansion of the Naruto story
This is my attempt to guess the story creation process from the beginning to the end. Because we won't know for sure if I'm right until the story comes to an end, this will remain a theory until then. Albeit, an interesting one.
When doing this, I took into account the many rules I've come up with until now, as well as the fact that to the mangaka, the story must be easy to plan no matter where he's standing from.
For me, Madara's first appearance (the later revelations mattered less) marked what you might qualify as a turning point for my theories: it marked the convergence of the Kyuubi and Uchiha plotlines (back then, via the Akatsuki plotline. Now the Akatsuki element isn't even needed anymore).
Now, I also know my "First Three Chapters" rule as the "full circle" theory: what gets introduced first is also what gets resolved last. I had theorized that it applied to a manga level too: Naruto's bijuu plotline was the first introduced, and the Akatsuki aspect seemed to imply that it will be the last resolved aspect. The fact that the Akatsuki and Uchiha plotlines are the same reinforce that by connecting the goals of the two most important characters in the story: Naruto and Sasuke.
III.1. The Naruto core and expansion
See the following animated sequences:
The base of the story is Naruto and the demon he contains.
The story is then expanded by adding the obligatory Shounen rival. This rival has its own plotline, which is actually linked to the main character's own plotline.
To avoid the story being too linear, the Orochimaru aspect was added, not as part of the main plotlines, but as the major deviation from the central plotlines, the major obstacle. Now that it's been taken care of, the story proceeds again towards the main plotlines.
All sides are put into "stable" formations: the main protagonists into Team 7, while the Orochimaru aspect gets expanded into the Legendary Sannin aspect to serve as base for Team 7's training.
Finally, all sides get extras. The protagonist side gets the rest of the (now ex-) genin 15, and post-timeskip, the new team 7 and perhaps team Hebi join this list as well. The Orochimaru side gets the whole Sound following. The Kyuubi aspect gets expanded into 9 Bijuus, who in turn are the target of Akatsuki, who are actually the extra cronies of the Uchiha leaders.
And thus we have the story.
How the Danzou part fits into all this remains to be seen.
All the decks are in place! All that remains is to distribute them.
III.2. The story distribution
Kishimoto now has to advance the stories towards the listed goals. Note that the series can deviate or at least put on hold the progress towards the main plotlines, under a few conditions:
- it has to showcase something else: either showing more of the world (including new abilities - this is a shounen manga: the fighting is important), or showcase themes, therefore filling a satisfying "something new" quota
- the deviation, if not at all connected to the main plotlines, can only be used once. The second occurrence must lead back to the plotlines.
III.3. Note: the first half of Part II
Note that with these guidelines, the overall story becomes easy for Kishimoto to plan no matter what point of the story he's reached. With the Orochimaru deviation in mind, for example, he could put the Akatsuki aspect completely on hold while he plans each step of the Orochimaru build-up. Not only that, but should the editors ever decide that Naruto is becoming too boring, he can skip many of the intermediate steps and rush to the conclusion.
In particular, I'd like to give particular mention to the first half of Part II.
Before part II started, the manga team took several weeks off. During that time I think they planned out more or less the entirety of part II, not the details, but the general contents.
I believe it went something like this:
- Arc I: Showcase Sakura. Show Akatsuki goals. Others: team Sand, team Gai.
- Arc II: Showcase Kyuubi. Hint connection between Kyuubi and Sharingan. Others: new stable formation for Naruto.
- Arc III: Showcase Naruto and Shikamaru. Reveal Akatsuki goals somewhere along the line. Others: team 10.
- Arc IV: Showcase Sasuke. Convergence of the Akatsuki, Kyuubi, Uchiha and Danzou plotlines. Introduce Pein. Others: team 8, new stable formation for Sasuke.
-- end first half of part II --
- Arc V: ? I'll be sure to make a prediction as soon as the first 3 chapters show up.
The level of detail could have varied, of course. Because of this top-down approach, some elements were heavily emphasized while others were neglected, which might have seem confusing to the readers at points.
The rest of the arc creation process simply followed the creation and distribution rules.
Example: Arc IV:
See how it works?
IV. Saving the best for last? A distribution theory
Remember these?
You might have noticed that in my opinion, just about none of the characters have played out either their abilities cards or their thematic card to the max.
Hence my following theory: of the protagonists, the most powerful abilities and the final theme resolutions must be reserved for their last battle near the end of the story.
That doesn't sound Too far-fetched, does it?
IV.1. The main character decks that had to be played out anyway
Remember, as per various rules, the main characters:
- Have to be shown on a more regular basis than the support cast
- Are not exactly allowed to hold back against high-level opponents (matching rule)
- But benefit from a greater variety of abilities as well as various levels of power-ups, allowing them to fight to their heart's content without worrying about later power levels (they'll just gain a new power-up later)
As a result, as I've addressed in the part II structure breakdown, Kishimoto probably decided to simply have them go full out - for their post-skip training level in any case. This first half was probably designed with this in mind:
- Arc I: showcase Sakura and hype her to the max.
- Arc II: showcase Kyuubi and hype it quite a lot.
- Arc III: showcase Naruto and hype him to the max.
- Arc IV: showcase Sasuke and hype him to the max.
Basically, he played out most of their "normal" L3 cards, as well as their "hyping" via announcing in a non-too-subtle manner that they Will one day surpass their older-generation equivalent (hmm, Sasuke hasn't been shown surpassing Itachi yet, but close enough, besides he did surpass the Orochimaru benchmark).
In the meantime, Kishimoto likely has plenty of power-ups left for the second half of part II. All's good.
Then "all" he had to do was fill in the holes.
IV.2. The main support decks limitations
Unfortunately, the rest of the cast does not benefit from the variety or power-ups that the main characters do.
In part I, the main support cast gained a power-up via there being a training phase. However, it would be much harder to justify it in part II: it would have been unrealistic for the cast to improve little in 2.5 years, then suddenly reach a whole new level in 2.5 months.
Solution: instead of using up the support cast's post-timeskip cards or trying to find a way to create new ones, Kishimoto simply didn't use them at all.
The only support cast that got a decent treatment were:
- Gaara, who however lost Shukaku in the whole deal, and might thus be using a slightly different set of attacks in any eventual final battle. ie, new cards. Then again, even then, he only filled 3 chapters...
- Shikamaru, whose "cards" are tactics, thus making his arsenal potentially infinite. See my Shikamaru essay again on how he's a structural anomaly.
The rest of the cast though? Not once in the first half of Part II did they ever get pushed to their limits:
- either a sensei took over (even then, Gai only defeated a clone)
- or some other random cards were used to fill the protagonist cards (Kotetsu/Izumo and Aoba/Raidou)
- or a main character took over (easy since the first half of part II insisted pretty much on those)
- or they got a half-assed fight (clones wtf?)
- or... well... team 8.
Note though: as per the unique usage rule, most of those tricks will likely not get repeated. Good riddance.
Chouji never used any pills of any form. Lee never opened his gates. I'm Pretty sure that Neji-the-jounin knows more new moves than Hakke Kuushou.
Basically, the first half of part II bought time by playing up team 7's "normal" improvements (while not playing their final cards) and by advancing the plot some, while bringing in a whole plethora of very minor cards (the sensei, a few shinobi outside of the main, etc) and some new characters to delay the usage of any final cards from the support cast.
Notice by the way how this might have coordinated with the anime team. The lack of the support cast in the first half of part II was probably offset in Theory by their increased presence in the anime, via fillers and extension of support cast fights. It probably sounded like genius back then. :|
IV.3. Theory on the second half of part II
Here we go again. This may seem repetitive to those who've read my support cast essay, but those who didn't, they don't have to read it anymore.
The way I see it, Kishimoto Is obligated to show the support cast on a semi-regular basis. So we Will see them again in the second half of part II. When it happens, it will likely be under one of the two following conditions:
- either they never fight again, or get minor fights
- or they go full out for one final fanservice that prolong the end of the manga while giving Kishimoto loads of extra money for the trouble
... does the second possibility sound That unlikely?
Now the big objection I hear from people is that there aren't enough opponents left. Correction: there aren't enough Akatsuki Cronies left. Frankly, coming up with new powerful villains is the easiest thing in the world. Kishimoto did leave the L2 of some of the characters to the fillers (kind of), but I doubt he'll give All the L3 of the support cast to the anime.
My personal pet theory is that the Bijuu will somehow get unleashed. This would also explain why of the part II Bijuu decks, the Most we've seen of is intro-level: because Kishimoto has been reserving Those decks as well. But hey, that's just me. At worst Kishimoto could have:
- Pein come up with 10 extra bodies
- have Danzou cook up a war
- or have Madara pull out a bunch of powerful spares out of nowhere.
- it isn't difficult, honest!
Match-ups in the second half of part II could be:
- Sai vs Danzou, maybe after Danzou offs Tsunade first.
- Hebi vs Kabumaru. I'm not sure of the real importance of Kabumaru, but Sasuke is running out of decks, so he might be reserving them for those final bosses there. I could see Hebi confronting Kabumaru as Sasuke goes to his final destination.
- ex-genin 15 vs unleashed Bijuu (with eventually Shukaku left out of the deal if he's considered too used). The protagonist side would have 2 or 3 L3 decks on each side per bijuu, so it's a decent match-up.
- main characters vs final villains (Madara, Pein, not-sure-about-Konan, maybe Itachi again). Naruto's remaining cards, in particular, will probably be reserved for big fights from now on.
If my structure theory is at least partly correct, we're in for a hell of an end.
Conclusion
Main rules:
Main consequences:
Others:
- Distribution of abilities (current generation)
- Distribution of abilities (older generation)
- Distribution of themes
- First 3 chapters justification
- Story core theory
- Story expansion theory
- Example/theory of arc planning
So as a conclusion, this essay can be used for:
- Character defense (or at least explanations)
- Manga (structure) predictions
- Fake spoilers
Feel free to use the graphs too, as long as you leave the links so that people can find back the original essay.
Extra: So does it work?
I had already thought up and written over half these rules when the team Hebi arc started, scattered in my now obsolete older essays, though they were less precise than they are now. Based on what I had then, I wrote a prediction what's to become the team Hebi arc:
Global arc IV predictions: main cast, main battles, pacing, etc.
You can read the whole thread (or just the “This arc:” components of each), or just see my wrap-up below.
Keep in mind that I wrote this when only 3 chapters had started in that arc. Back then, it still wasn't clear if Sasuke or Orochimaru took over.
Here's how it fared: (most of the quoted parts are from the summary, some are from the main essay section. Do a sentence search in the original essay if you want to find back the other parts)
Predictions for this arc:
- main cast: team 7 / team Kakashi / team Yamato / whatever you call it. As in, Not team 8 or some other team.
While team Kakashi were protagonists this arc, it turned out that I was wrong about them getting the main ones. Instead...
- main final antagonists: Orochimaru / Sasuke. Maybe Itachi thrown in. As in, likely not other Akatsuki.
Sasuke was the main protagonist this arc instead, right before he became the main antagonist of the series (...). And ironically, I thought the main antagonist would be:
- mainly Orochimaru (hey, it wasn't clear yet if Sasuke won against him, I thought that Orochimaru had either taken over or was sharing with Sasuke), with Maybe some bits about Itachi thrown in. But it turned out that it was mostly about:
- Itachi with some Orochimaru thrown in.
Oh well. Structure right, proportions wrong. In any case:
- main developed characters: Sasuke, maybe Naruto (brother connection) and Kakashi (sharingan connection?).
So I got the “main developed character” right, but not the main protagonist right. I'm kind of wondering what I was thinking back then (it was over a year ago).
- main supporting cast: Kakashi? (Sharingan connection), Jiraiya? (Sannin connection), third mangekyou user? (lol?)
It turned out that it wasn't Kakashi's turn this arc.
Jiraiya's case was ironic: once Orochimaru was shown dead I thought he wouldn't have a role this arc. He did anyway. :| Instead of using his connection to Orochimaru, Kishimoto randomly created a connection to Pain. As for the Third Mangekyou User, although it was a genuine structural possibility, I was actually joking back then. :o
- main extra (ie, tag-alongs for non plot-affecting battles): team 8, some other team, Jiraiya, some custom-made character for this arc or nobody. If the answer isn't "nobody," then this cast will be involved in the build-up/obstacle phase.
Is it ironic that the answer was nearly “all of the above”? It was both team 8 and team Hebi. In any case, I knew it was doomed for team 8 as soon as they showed up, so I actually went through this arc with not too many problems (I didn't have any false expectations, eh)
- main plotline: Orochimaru / body transfer, or more focus on the Sharingan/Uchiha plotline.
Eh, turned out to be #2.
- duration: 343 to about 370+ ? (about 30 chapters, if previous arcs are any indication)
This was completely off. :P I did say back then that there can be multiple Obstacle/build-up phases, but I didn't expect it yet for this arc. It seems structure predictions are more or less accurate qualitatively, but not quantitatively (I've since realized that the only quantity rule aside the first 3 chapters rule is that the length for a battle is determined by the number of cards each side can produce).
Possible break-down: (note: the further along the timeline, the less accurate the chapter prediction)
- 346: last glimpses at the Sound situation, scene shifts back to Konoha
- 347 ~ 350: Konoha interactions. Various other scenes (Akatsuki? Sound?) can be randomly inserted as well, but would have minimal impact on the storyline.
- around 351: if another team or character is supposed to appear for the build-up phase, it appears and leaves around this chapter at latest. This can involve either team 8, some other random team, Kakashi or Jiraiya. Otherwise, we just have team 7 leaving.
- 352 ~ 363: build-up/obstacle phase? Starts with a few chapters of running, centers on the first prolonged battle of this arc (involving either any "extra" team to show up, or simply team 7)
- 364 ~ 378: final phase and final battles. Will involve Sasuke in one way or another.
Again, most durations were off. Also, while team Hebi did show up, Sasuke was the one who fought in the first phase II. But the final phase did involve Sasuke (hey! It seems obvious Now, but you should have seen the number of people predicting team Konoha vs Pein!).
Ironically, I did predict the possibility of a more complicated structure this arc (I.e. another phase II):
It is possible that this is the final arc of the first half of part II, leading Kishimoto to depart from schemes he's used so far to make things more complicated.
I doubted it back then, but oh well. Structure predictions aren't really about your own opinions. :|
Other stuff:
- Well, it depends. I'm just saying that this likely won't be the arc that Naruto gets kidnapped by Akatsuki, or anything like that. If Naruto were to be kidnapped, the responsible Akatsuki would at least have been shown by now.
The above had me sit through many a fake spoilers about Pein going after Naruto. Though I did get nervous at times. It turns out that I should have trusted my own predictions more. ~_~
- The certainty that team 8 would be left out had me sit through many a clamoring about how team 8 is going to beat up Pein, Konan, Zetsu or Madara. Ironically, in the process, I've earned quite a few people calling my predictions off and saying that I'm biased against team 8 (and certain pairings). *shrugs*
- Also, while there can be many Phase II phases, there is only One final phase per arc. Once the Sasuke vs Itachi fight was over, the whole arc was just about over: all remaining battles could Only be short, cut-off, insignificant, etc. etc. Basically, I didn't get my hopes up about team 8 “finally” getting its turn. True enough, the “battle” was skimmed over then interrupted, there were a couple of chapters of flashbacks, and all the Konoha folks were back at home.
- Oh, and, for the lol's: As per “something new” rule, Sasuke had to get a power-up sooner or later, And trim down any “obsolete” attack sets. When Sasuke went full out against Deidara, then went into a full confrontation against Itachi, I thought that Sasuke would somehow lose his Raiton attack set. It turns out I got the set wrong, and he lost the Curse Seal set instead. Also, since he seemed to have used up most of his “normal” attacks, I knew he'd get a new power-up sooner or later, though I admit I didn't Quite expect it this quickly or This way. :o
- The Naruto case was even less expected: Kakashi did mention a Yin/Yang chakra, and Naruto could have gained a new attack set next arc training in that without new power-ups. When the frog key was revealed, he had a guaranteed power-up, so imagine my surprise when he swallowed a crow on top of that. :o
In any case, I'll be sure to make a new prediction once the first 3 chapters of This arc are out. And for those of you who are fans of the support cast, you can start cheering when at the start of a new arc, all the support cast suddenly shows themselves. ^__^
So anyway, this concludes what I consider to be my mega-essays trilogy, and marks my retirement from essays of this scale. You can find the rest of my essays here. Cheers!