Prop 8 Losing, But Gap Continues to Narrow

[amurderofcows]

A new Field Poll shows Proposition 8, which would overturn same-sex marriage in California, losing 49%-44%, with 7% undecided. That's good news, but that gap is steadily narrowing; things have been moving in the wrong direction (for us) since the campaign started

Comments

[amurderofcows]

The Field Poll seems to be using a likely voter screen that accounts for a lot of that, or at minimum assumes that Democratic turnout will be especially heavy. The same poll showed a 22-point gap between Obama and McCain. California is a Blue State to be sure, but a 22-point gap would represent a pretty serious swing. In 2004, Kerry won California by 9.8% and in 2000 Gore won California by 11.6%, so a poll which shows Obama winning by 22% looks to me like a poll with a lot of favorable turnout assumptions about Democrats built into the likely voter screen.

Also, in many elections, unions (especially public employee unions) do a major GOTV effort in California, usually because they have some skin in the game with some ballot measure. That's not really the case this time, so the California election will operate without major GOTV efforts by anyone except the Yes on 8 and No on 8 people, and the former are better organized.

I don't think complacency will be a big factor. I think the Obama people are pretty energized by their candidate, and are excited about voting for a winner. I live in a very liberal precinct, even by San Francisco standards, and my partner, who just stopped by to vote on his way to work, texted me and said the line was long. That's not typical of our polling place (San Francisco has a truly massive number of polling places for a city its size, with most precincts covering only a few blocks, so lines to vote are very much the exception).