Prop 8 Losing, But Gap Continues to Narrow
A new Field Poll shows Proposition 8, which would overturn same-sex marriage in California, losing 49%-44%, with 7% undecided. That's good news, but that gap is steadily narrowing; things have been moving in the wrong direction (for us) since the campaign started.
One thing that's remarkable to me about this is that the bulk of the financial support for Prop 8 has not come from the traditional evangelical and fundamentalist groups. The Yes on 8 campaign estimates that 40% of their money has come from Mormon donors, most of them from out of state, and another big chunk has come from Catholic groups, particularly the Knights of Columbus. I don't know if this reflects some change of zeitgeist/emphasis among evangelicals or if Mormon and Catholic groups have simply been better organized. The LDS church itself has contributed $20 million to Yes on 8, and very successfully mobilized their members, most of whom live outside California, to phone bank into the state and donate money to the campaign as individuals.
Something that worries me is that in 2000, when Proposition 22, a ban on gay marriage, passed in California, Catholic voters were divided evenly in pre-election polls, but voted much more heavily in favor of it on election day, perhaps because they were exhorted to from the pulpit on the Sunday before Election Day. Mormons make up only about 2% of California voters, but Catholics are 24% of the state's electorate, so a significant shift among Catholic voters would be problematic. Right now, the Field Poll shows 44% of Catholics supporting Prop 8, and 48% opposing.
Prop 8 is opposed by every age range below the age of 65, but gets strong (62%) support from voters over 65. So if your grandparents live in California, talk to them about voting against Prop 8. And if they don't see things your way, hey, old people fall down long flights of stairs all the time, that's all I'm saying.
An unknown factor in all of this polling is turnout. California is not in play at the presidential level (Obama leads McCain by 22 points) so neither campaign is making a turnout effort. All pollsters must make educated guesses about turnout, and in this election it's harder than usual to estimate. Everyone in the polling business thinks the enthusiasm and fervor among Democrats will drive up their turnout this year, but exactly how much is still a matter of guesswork. This is why you see some polls showing a big lead for Obama, and some polls showing the race very close. Everyone is baking into the numbers a turnout estimate, because asking people if they intend to vote is a very poor predictor of whether they actually will.
The bottom line: things look encouraging, but it's still very possible Proposition 8 will go the wrong way. And if it does, the impact on the possibility of equal marriage will extend far beyond California.
If you'd like to read the full Field Poll report, it's available as a PDF here. It includes a lot of breakout information, and some interesting numbers on how voters react to various arguments for and against Prop 8. For example, the Yes on 8 campaign ran a lot of ads claiming that if Prop 8 didn't pass, schools could be required to teach that same-sex marriage was acceptable, but polling shows that this argument has been knocked down by the opposition, or was a non-starter in the first place.
One thing that's remarkable to me about this is that the bulk of the financial support for Prop 8 has not come from the traditional evangelical and fundamentalist groups. The Yes on 8 campaign estimates that 40% of their money has come from Mormon donors, most of them from out of state, and another big chunk has come from Catholic groups, particularly the Knights of Columbus. I don't know if this reflects some change of zeitgeist/emphasis among evangelicals or if Mormon and Catholic groups have simply been better organized. The LDS church itself has contributed $20 million to Yes on 8, and very successfully mobilized their members, most of whom live outside California, to phone bank into the state and donate money to the campaign as individuals.
Something that worries me is that in 2000, when Proposition 22, a ban on gay marriage, passed in California, Catholic voters were divided evenly in pre-election polls, but voted much more heavily in favor of it on election day, perhaps because they were exhorted to from the pulpit on the Sunday before Election Day. Mormons make up only about 2% of California voters, but Catholics are 24% of the state's electorate, so a significant shift among Catholic voters would be problematic. Right now, the Field Poll shows 44% of Catholics supporting Prop 8, and 48% opposing.
Prop 8 is opposed by every age range below the age of 65, but gets strong (62%) support from voters over 65. So if your grandparents live in California, talk to them about voting against Prop 8. And if they don't see things your way, hey, old people fall down long flights of stairs all the time, that's all I'm saying.
An unknown factor in all of this polling is turnout. California is not in play at the presidential level (Obama leads McCain by 22 points) so neither campaign is making a turnout effort. All pollsters must make educated guesses about turnout, and in this election it's harder than usual to estimate. Everyone in the polling business thinks the enthusiasm and fervor among Democrats will drive up their turnout this year, but exactly how much is still a matter of guesswork. This is why you see some polls showing a big lead for Obama, and some polls showing the race very close. Everyone is baking into the numbers a turnout estimate, because asking people if they intend to vote is a very poor predictor of whether they actually will.
The bottom line: things look encouraging, but it's still very possible Proposition 8 will go the wrong way. And if it does, the impact on the possibility of equal marriage will extend far beyond California.
If you'd like to read the full Field Poll report, it's available as a PDF here. It includes a lot of breakout information, and some interesting numbers on how voters react to various arguments for and against Prop 8. For example, the Yes on 8 campaign ran a lot of ads claiming that if Prop 8 didn't pass, schools could be required to teach that same-sex marriage was acceptable, but polling shows that this argument has been knocked down by the opposition, or was a non-starter in the first place.