Last week I was a sicky. Complete with fever. I am actually very proud of my fever, as I always feel it gives me the green light to fully indulge in the sickness. So, fever established, I lazed around on my couch, snuggly blanket and tea at the ready, and decided to give this show people keep talking about a try. I watched a lot of Battlestar Galactica.
How much, you ask? Let me put it this way: a week ago I had never seen any Battlestar Galactica. Now… Now I have seen ALL of Battlestar Galactica. If you like, take a moment to do the math on that and figure out just HOW fever indulgent I was.
So now, of course, I am trying to figure out how Battlestar Galactica is going to end. As is my way. I don't like to sit and wait - I like to dissect, predict, and be right.
I think it comes down to one question. Is this a show that is meant to reveal us for what we truly are, or is a show trying to teach us about how we should be? The first would be a tragedy, the second would have an ending of hope.
For a while I thought it was the first. It's very stark, very grim. Sure, a few good people might change and learn to see each other as individuals, but as a group we will always see our enemy as the scary other. Never trust enough to stop. Always fear, and always be so hurt that we keep giving into revenge. That even extremely good people like Laura Roslin can be so motivated by the need to protect her people, that she will make really gross decisions on occasion. And if that's the story then we will always keep traveling.
Little moments seem to point to this terrible reality. The Six that kills Baroclay in the basestar, because Baroclay killed her on New Caprica. And the solution for that standoff was for Natalie Six to willingly pull the trigger and kill her sister Six, hilariously freaking out Sam, who had been very close to doing it himself. An eye for an eye for an eye. And it never ends, and we never get to the peaceful destination we've always been hoping to find. "This has all happened before."
Then I went back and rewatched the miniseries. (Add on another four hours to the couch lounging.) And now I think it's the latter. This show wants to confront us with the horrible reality of how we are living, but then it wants to take us by the hand and teach us how we should be. We will always keep traveling, unless we learn to change.
Remember Adama's retirement speech. We still murder for greed. We still do horribly things. Why do we deserve to survive? At that time, the answer was the characters didn't. They were surviving through force, but they hadn't earned the right. And they were nearly annihilated.
When I try to predict how something is going to end, I always think the strongest argument comes from storytelling structure. Theme is important, but theme is the lesson. And there are many ways to teach a lesson. Structure is the how; how this lesson will be taught in this particular version.
There are many ways to express the theme of Battlestar Galactica: survival, survival at what cost, earning the right to survive. But this particular show specifically framed this theme with the question why. Why do we deserve to survive? And structurally, a story that asks that question in the first episode, wants to give you the answer in the last.
In order to earn their right to survive as a society, the characters have to fundamentally change. New Caprica failed because it was called frakking New Caprica. It was a new world built on the foundations of the old. They hadn't learned their lesson, thus they were doomed.
Sure, the Cylons showed up and demanded peace, but it was peace on their terms. They wanted to be in charge - because they couldn't trust the humans. And the humans didn't want to have anything to do with the Cylons at all. They weren't even listening.
But that's theme; they lost because they hadn't changed. It doesn't answer the question whether or not this story will teach the lesson by pounding away at that answer, or turn it around.
Structurally, New Caprica is a big frakking clue. Everyone lost horribly on New Caprica, because it was the middle of the story. It's the Empire Strikes Back, The Order of the Phoenix. Every story that wants to end on a note of hope, has to lose a chapter half way through. The characters learn from this loss, get out, regroup. Try to rally and find the strength to keep going, build towards the end.
What about Earth? That was outrageously grim. Everything the characters had been hoping for turned to radioactive dust. How can they possibly find the happy ending after that?
Well, the humans went to Earth with the Cylons because they had to, not because they wanted to. They hadn't really changed. Laura, in her heart, still wanted Earth for humans only if she could have it. It was a compromise out of necessity, not honest desire. But again, that's theme. And this has all happened before, maybe that will always be the answer.
Structurally, Earth was heartbreaking because a happy story has to hit rock bottom one last time. The characters have to hit a point where they honestly aren't sure if they can keep going. Total absolute failure has to be within reach, a tangible possibility, in order to earn the light on the other side. That's Luke almost being killed by the Emperor, the shields not being down in time. That's Harry in the castle, surrounded by the dead; walking into the forest prepared to die.
Earth was the worst imaginable. The one last horrifying nightmare before the climatic battle. Pushing the characters to the point where they are completely reborn, find a strength they didn't know they had. They stand up and say no frakking way, it is not going to end here. "Not my daughter, you bitch."
Sometimes A Great Notion, and the episodes that immediately followed was hitting bottom. Blood On The Scales was finding the hidden strength. Lee and Kara fight together again, beautifully. Chief saves the day. Adama is spitting he is so filled with fire. And Laura was possibly the awesome scariest she has ever been.
Now we have all the pieces lined up. All the characters ready to fight for change like they have never fought before. Ready to love and work together, to see this through to the end.
The theme asked, why do we deserve to survive? Structurally we are right in the middle of the climax - every episode from now on running toward the finale. And now the characters are finally changing, finally fighting together, working as one unit for a common goal. Because these two elements are lining up right now, right at this particular moment in the story, we know exactly what kind of show this is going to be. It has the structure of a story with a happy ending, or at least an ending of hope. It revealed what we are, and how that will never work. And now the story is desperately trying to show us how we should be.
If it were to jump structures now, and turn into a tragedy, it would defeat its own purpose, kill the theme. The answer to earning the right to survive was change. There are two ways to structure that theme. The characters never change, thus they keep traveling; the bleak ending, serving as a moral warning. Or they do change, and as a result demonstrate they can be deserving after all. Battlestar Gallactica chose the second option. The characters went through hell, a painful metamorphosis, and as a result they must be given their reward. The last episode will likely end with a planet, a permanent home, to be shared. If it does not go that far, hope, at the very least, will be on the horizon; humans and cylons traveling together, toward a new, better destination.
Bets for the individual players?
The parents have to die in order for the children to reach their full potential. It's another explicitly stated theme. How does it fit into the structure of this story? To fit with the ending of hope, the old guard must step aside.
On the day of the attacks, Adama was about to retire. He is the wise old man they needed to mentor them through his one last battle. But there are a few wise old mentors in this story, so rather than actual death, it could be metaphorical. The end of his career, he finally gets to rest.
I don't want Laura Roslin to die, I love her too much, but it is likely. She is the Moses; the show was fairly blatant in that regard. The leader that will never get to enter the promised land. We could cross our fingers and hope she is merely sick enough that she will never get to leave the ship, but find peace knowing her people will finally stop running. I could picture Laura and Bill standing on the Galactica, watching the rest of the fleet finally entering a habitable atmosphere.
But that might be too picturesque. Maybe they do both have to die. Either way, they will be off the table in one permanent fashion or another.
Who will replace them?
Lee will be President. Or perhaps a co-leader with one of the Cylons. (Sam? He's another natural leader.) Lee's has always been the coming of age story. Learning how to be a man. When the show ends, he will be ready to step into a position of confident leadership.
Helo will also likely be in another leadership position. He has always been the moral voice, he's just never been very good at getting people to listen to him. Consistently bad at it, in fact. He needs Athena at his side. They make a very good team. He's the moral imperative, she's the rational strategy. Commander and XO?
Kara Thrace has already died and been resurrected, it's hard to imagine her dying again. It's equally as hard to imagine her as Commander, due to the rather consistent crazy. She has always been very similar to Tigh, and would likely make a very good XO.
These players are hard. Because Helo and Athena would make sense to be the example to lead the people, but they have always been about military, never about politics. And Lee would make sense to fill his father's shoes, with Kara as his second - they always make a wonderfully effective team. But it's equally hard to imagine Lee going back to military after so decisively leaving. After growing so much since the departure. And he is such the golden boy - someone who might actually make a really good charismatic politician.
Whatever specific position they find themselves in - these four will live. They are your new guard.
And one thing I know for sure; Gaius Baltar will die. He's the Snape, the Vader, the Gollum, the Spike. He is the one who dabbled on both sides. The one who was driven crazy by his sins, but was too much of a tenacious survivor to die. He wants to love, but is consistently selfishly motivated. The character desperately seeking redemption, trying so hard to change into something new, but always getting it wrong. His is the redemption through death storyline. When he finally figures it out, there will be a great sacrifice. He is your martyr.