Charleston massacre: The latest American mass killing
The regularity of mass killings breeds familiarity. [....] Those who live in America, or visit it, might do best to regard them the way one regards air pollution in China: an endemic local health hazard which, for deep-rooted cultural, social, economic and political reasons, the country is ( Read more... )

After posting about The Prosecutor's Fallacy I recalled a similar case with the Defense in the O.J. Simpson trial. The issue was summarized in What is your favorite problem for an introduction to probability?:
... one of Simpson’s lawyers, Alan Dershowitz, noted that even though Simpson beat ( Read more... )

Bayes' Theorem ... A Simple Example

Notation: Prob(A) means "the probability of event A" and Prob(A|B) is "the probability of event A, given that event B has happened."

Bayes' Theorem: Prob(A|B)xProb(B) = Prob(B|A)xProb(A)

Now, Prob(A|B) and Prob(B|A) are often confused by even the most intelligent of people. The confusion often appears in legal ( Read more... )

Last Wednesday I spend the evening at church, being trained in Safe Church practises. Safe Church is a program developed by the Episcopal Church to protect children from sexual predators, including but not limited to clergy and other staff.( Read more... )

How to succeed in science (without doing any)

Note the first "tip:"

01. Fake data nobody ever expects to see. If you're going to make things up, you won't have any original data to produce when someone asks to see it. The simplest way to avoid this awkward situation is to make sure that nobody ever asks. You can do this in several ways, but the ( Read more... )

'Criminal' penguin caught on film.

As you can see, the perp has this down to a routine.

From Skepchick.

Thieves preying on fellow protesters

From Best of the Web Today

Who Are the Real Hijackers of Islam?
( Scary story )

At 80beats

I have often wondered if such a thing would be possible, and what the consequences would be.

After being snowbound for 40 hours we were finally able to get out late Sunday morning. The first event: A family trip to a bookstore. There I found and bought a copy of The Big Con: The Story of the Confidence Man. I had read it decades ago, back in college or even high school. The author, David W. Maurer was a long time friend and colleague ( Read more... )