First impressions
Midwest round 1: Illinois over Fairleigh Dickinson in a walk...Texas edges Nevada by holding down Fazekas with Klotz and Buckman...UWM edges Alabama...BC over Penn...UAB over LSU in a big coin-toss game...Arizona over Utah State...St. Mary's over SIU in a matchup that made me go "ooh!"...OK state over Southeast Louisiana.
West round 1: Washington over Montana in another walk...Pittsburgh over Pacific...GW over Georgia Tech in the 5-12 upset special -- everyone talks about Tech and B.J. Elder missing some games, but they just aren't all there enough of the time...Louisville over LA-Lafayette...Texas Tech over UCLA...Gonzaga over Winthrop...WVU over Creighton with a bigger margin than you might expect...Wake Forest over Chattanooga.
East round 1: UNC over Oakland...Minnesota over Iowa State...Villanova over New Mexico...Florida over Ohio...Wisconsin over UNI...Kansas over Bucknell...Charlotte over N.C. State...UConn over UCF. (WTF? Did I just pick no upsets in that bracket? Maybe I should think this over.)
South round 1: Duke over Delaware State...Mississippi State over Stanford...Michigan State over Old Dominion (hmm...)...Syracuse over Vermont...Utah over UTEP...Oklahoma over Niagara...Iowa over Cincinnati...Kentucky over EKU.
Midwest round 2: Illinois over Texas in a bit of a nail-biter...BC over UWM...Arizona over UAB...Oklahoma State over Saint Mary's.
South round 2: Washington scrapes by Pitt...Louisville demolishes GW...Gonzaga edges Texas Tech...Wake Forest beats West Virginia.
East round 2: Foreshadowing what is to come, North Carolina hangs on against a scrappy never-say-die Minnesota...Villanova slaps Florida with a wet trout...Kansas over Wisconsin...UConn over Charlotte.
South round 2: Duke over Mississippi State...Syracuse over Michigan State...Oklahoma over Utah...Iowa over Kentucky.
Midwest semis: Illinois sends Boston College back to the drawing board and Arizona beats Oklahoma State, setting up a rematch of 2001.
West semis: Louisville beats Washington and Wake Forest edges Gonzaga in one of the tournament's better games.
East semis: Villanova is the team that doesn't blow away in the wind. The experience of Big East play gives them an edge over a North Carolina team that experiences an odd, turnover-laden breakdown. Kansas, meanwhile, exposes UConn as a bit too sketchy and advances to the Elite Eight.
South semis: Syracuse beats Duke with a powerful defensive effort that holds down J.J. Redick. Duke finds that it has a hard time matching up with Hakim Warrick. Oklahoma catches Kentucky on a poor shooting night and also advances to the South finals.
At this point the regional finals are:
(1) Illinois vs. (3) Arizona - Illinois avenges its loss of 2001, as Luke Walton is gone and Lute Olson has no one to call a "dirty player." Defensive intensity is enough to get Illinois into the Final Four.
(4) Louisville vs. (2) Wake Forest - Wake in a walk. WF's weakness is poor defensive play. Louisville's is "who-dat" factor: if you aren't in the Big Ten and I only know one or two players on your team, you might well be in trouble. This could be one of those "first one to 90 wins" games. I really like WF's balance with Paul/Gray on the outside and Williams on the inside.
(5) Villanova vs. (3) Kansas - Villanova's joyride comes to an end as Kansas escapes what most people seem to think is the toughest regional of the four. Kansas is better than a lot of locals want to give them credit for. They've been on a bit of a backslide lately, but I think they'll show up in the tournament - especially given the way the chips have fallen around them.
(4) Syracuse vs. (3) Oklahoma - I'll take Syracuse in this one because I like their game. McNamara is what, a 90% free throw shooter? Those are good to have in close ones. Oklahoma also suffers from a very bad case of "who-dat" factor.
The semifinals:
(1) Illinois vs. (2) Wake Forest - Rematch of the Brawl in the Hall! This, I think, is a chance for a team to show up against Wake Forest's defensive weaknesses. Unfortunately, if they really buckle down in this game, they'll probably have the edge: Illinois will have to play immaculate defense to hold down Williams inside. Jack Ingram is just a bit too slow and Nick Smith a bit too weak and Roger Powell a bit too small. Augustine will have to stay out of foul trouble. When I bet this one, I'll probably take Wake Forest to avoid the double stomach punch, but I think Illinois could definitely win Round 2.
(3) Kansas vs. (4) Syracuse - Syracuse. Kansas is OK but I still think Syracuse meshes pretty well. This attitude seemed to work pretty well for me back when Carmelo Anthony was around. Maybe it'll carry me here, too.
The finals: Wake over Syracuse. Call it a gut instinct.
These picks are bound to change as the world turns and ESPN puts up some statistics for me to look at.
West round 1: Washington over Montana in another walk...Pittsburgh over Pacific...GW over Georgia Tech in the 5-12 upset special -- everyone talks about Tech and B.J. Elder missing some games, but they just aren't all there enough of the time...Louisville over LA-Lafayette...Texas Tech over UCLA...Gonzaga over Winthrop...WVU over Creighton with a bigger margin than you might expect...Wake Forest over Chattanooga.
East round 1: UNC over Oakland...Minnesota over Iowa State...Villanova over New Mexico...Florida over Ohio...Wisconsin over UNI...Kansas over Bucknell...Charlotte over N.C. State...UConn over UCF. (WTF? Did I just pick no upsets in that bracket? Maybe I should think this over.)
South round 1: Duke over Delaware State...Mississippi State over Stanford...Michigan State over Old Dominion (hmm...)...Syracuse over Vermont...Utah over UTEP...Oklahoma over Niagara...Iowa over Cincinnati...Kentucky over EKU.
Midwest round 2: Illinois over Texas in a bit of a nail-biter...BC over UWM...Arizona over UAB...Oklahoma State over Saint Mary's.
South round 2: Washington scrapes by Pitt...Louisville demolishes GW...Gonzaga edges Texas Tech...Wake Forest beats West Virginia.
East round 2: Foreshadowing what is to come, North Carolina hangs on against a scrappy never-say-die Minnesota...Villanova slaps Florida with a wet trout...Kansas over Wisconsin...UConn over Charlotte.
South round 2: Duke over Mississippi State...Syracuse over Michigan State...Oklahoma over Utah...Iowa over Kentucky.
Midwest semis: Illinois sends Boston College back to the drawing board and Arizona beats Oklahoma State, setting up a rematch of 2001.
West semis: Louisville beats Washington and Wake Forest edges Gonzaga in one of the tournament's better games.
East semis: Villanova is the team that doesn't blow away in the wind. The experience of Big East play gives them an edge over a North Carolina team that experiences an odd, turnover-laden breakdown. Kansas, meanwhile, exposes UConn as a bit too sketchy and advances to the Elite Eight.
South semis: Syracuse beats Duke with a powerful defensive effort that holds down J.J. Redick. Duke finds that it has a hard time matching up with Hakim Warrick. Oklahoma catches Kentucky on a poor shooting night and also advances to the South finals.
At this point the regional finals are:
(1) Illinois vs. (3) Arizona - Illinois avenges its loss of 2001, as Luke Walton is gone and Lute Olson has no one to call a "dirty player." Defensive intensity is enough to get Illinois into the Final Four.
(4) Louisville vs. (2) Wake Forest - Wake in a walk. WF's weakness is poor defensive play. Louisville's is "who-dat" factor: if you aren't in the Big Ten and I only know one or two players on your team, you might well be in trouble. This could be one of those "first one to 90 wins" games. I really like WF's balance with Paul/Gray on the outside and Williams on the inside.
(5) Villanova vs. (3) Kansas - Villanova's joyride comes to an end as Kansas escapes what most people seem to think is the toughest regional of the four. Kansas is better than a lot of locals want to give them credit for. They've been on a bit of a backslide lately, but I think they'll show up in the tournament - especially given the way the chips have fallen around them.
(4) Syracuse vs. (3) Oklahoma - I'll take Syracuse in this one because I like their game. McNamara is what, a 90% free throw shooter? Those are good to have in close ones. Oklahoma also suffers from a very bad case of "who-dat" factor.
The semifinals:
(1) Illinois vs. (2) Wake Forest - Rematch of the Brawl in the Hall! This, I think, is a chance for a team to show up against Wake Forest's defensive weaknesses. Unfortunately, if they really buckle down in this game, they'll probably have the edge: Illinois will have to play immaculate defense to hold down Williams inside. Jack Ingram is just a bit too slow and Nick Smith a bit too weak and Roger Powell a bit too small. Augustine will have to stay out of foul trouble. When I bet this one, I'll probably take Wake Forest to avoid the double stomach punch, but I think Illinois could definitely win Round 2.
(3) Kansas vs. (4) Syracuse - Syracuse. Kansas is OK but I still think Syracuse meshes pretty well. This attitude seemed to work pretty well for me back when Carmelo Anthony was around. Maybe it'll carry me here, too.
The finals: Wake over Syracuse. Call it a gut instinct.
These picks are bound to change as the world turns and ESPN puts up some statistics for me to look at.