The Scottish Question
Not long now until Scotland votes on whether to stay as part of the UK or leave and go its own way. It's quite nerve-wracking really, especially as the rest of us in the UK have absolutely no say in it so we just have to sit and watch, and hope that Scotland makes the right decision. I can understand why Scotland wants to be independent, it's not news to those of us in the North that London and the South of the country have absolutely no idea what it's like for us up here - I know the North-South divide has been a running joke for years but it's true. London certainly thinks that the rest of the country has the same experiences that it does and it couldn't be more wrong. There are parts of the country where a pint doesn't cost over £5 and it is permissible to talk to strangers on public transport. I seem to remember around 2002-2003 there was the suggestion of a Northern Parliament for Lancashire, Merseyside, Cumbria, Greater Manchester, Yorkshire and Northumberland because of this but nothing came of it.
I've been a bit gobsmacked by the amount of people who have said they want to be independent purely because they didn't vote for a Conservative Government. You're not the only ones! There's been a strong tradition of Labour voting in the North as well as Scotland, but you don't see us demanding to become an independent state! You just sit tight and wait for the next election in 5 years. It just seems like a banal reason for independence, especially when governments change but independence is forever. That's one irrevocable vote.
Over the past few weeks as this whole thing has hotted up, I've begun to realise what a smarmy get Alex Salmond is. I get the feeling that he's treating this as his big moment, not Scotland's. He wants to be the one remembered for this historic decision. I know politicians are famous for not answering questions but Salmond seems to take it to extremes. There was something not so long ago where he was being asked what currency an independent Scotland would use and he just kept repeating that they'll keep the pound; no matter what was put to him, that was his response over and over again. Avoiding the question does not further your cause!
I've been going over a lot of the details as best I can to see what the reality of an independent Scotland would be like and I'm not sure I like what I see. Salmond and the Yes lot are banking on North Sea Oil as being their main source of income which seems mad because in the first place, it's not going to last forever. In the second place, it's not a guaranteed amount of income either as the price varies so much. It's been slowly dropping over the past few years as it is, from $112 a barrel in 2011 to $103 today. According to Sir Ian Wood, lauded by both Salmond and Cameron as the foremost expert, there's only 35 years worth of oil left and the decline will start in 15 years. (source) 15 years!? I knew it wouldn't last for much longer but I didn't think it was going to be that quick. I do wonder if that's why Cameron has been so quick to allow fracking in the UK, so that we have some source of gas for ourselves and we can't be held hostage by Scotland for it.
It seems that the Yes lot are also banking on export of Scottish whisky to bring in a substantial amount of revenue, despite the fact that it again is such a volatile market. Last year, exports to China dropped by 30% due to the Chinese government clamping down on luxury items, and exports to Taiwan, Japan and South Korea also dropped by 13-15%. (source) It seems that while they're exporting into newer countries, such as Poland, the value of those exports is dropping. (source) That's not a good sign.
I'm also not sure that Scotland will be a major player on an international scale straight away. The UK does have a fair bit of clout for our size and I presume, up until now, Scotland has had the might of the UK behind it. But when it's out there on its own? That's got to be a different story. I don't know what international markets think of tiny new countries, but I don't imagine they're very trusting right from the off. Obviously Scotland does have some history behind it but I'm still not sure it's going to be looked on favourably as a major player. How is that going to affect their exports? Whisky counts for 85% of their food and drink exports which is a high amount just on one thing. I think the rest is probably made up of Irn Bru, Tunnocks teacakes and wafers, and Walkers shortbread.
Then there's the controversy over what currency they will use. Salmond is determined to use pound despite the Bank of England saying no way, not on your Nellie, matey. If they do continue to use it despite that, what kind of value is it going to have? I mean, what reserve does Scotland have for any currency anyway? Is it going to end up like Canada, where their dollar is worth slightly less than the US one? And is the Scottish pound going to be accepted in the rest of the UK? Scottish banknotes aren't technically legal tender here as it is, they're allowed because there's an agreement within the banks which makes me wonder if that's likely to carry on should Scotland gain independence and continue to use the pound anyway.
There's also a lot riding on whether Scotland will continue to be part of the EU. The Yes lot seem to be assuming they will be part of EU automatically, even though the EU says nope, you'll have to apply like everyone else. In which case, Scotland may have to use the Euro as it's a requisite for being part of EU. The UK (and Denmark) are exempt from that as part of the Maastrict Treaty but if Scotland is no longer part of the UK, will that continue to apply to them? Some Scottish people have been saying they'd rather use the Euro than the pound anyway but I'm still not sure how well that would go down there. And it'd be a huge pain in the arse for them too, they'd have to have Euros for use in Scotland but pounds for any time they came into the rest of the UK. Can you imagine having to keep hold of a different currency, just in case you decided to have a day trip to the Lake District?
There's also a few things that are free in Scotland compared to other parts of the UK and obviously, the public would probably like and expect for those free things to continue, but how much is that costing the Scottish government and are they going to be able to continue to afford it? There are currently no university fees and Nicola Sturgeon, the deputy first minister said that they won't be bringing in uni fees in the future. (source) However, students from England, Wales and Northern Ireland do have to pay to study at Scottish unis, although that will change in a independent Scotland, resulting in a loss of £150m a year. (source) That's quite a chunk! The Sunday Post (Scottish newspaper) mentioned this ages ago, they were concerned that Scottish universities would lose a huge amount of revenue as a result. EU students can currently study for free at a university in another EU state - it doesn't work in the UK because it's all one state at the moment. But if Scotland gains independence, then students from the rest of the UK can study there for free. And how much more attractive would that be to prospective students? Why pay £9,000 a year to some English uni when you could go to St Andrews or Edinburgh for free? You'd be daft not to!
Scots pay less income tax because there's less in the way of high incomes in Scotland, but they contribute more through VAT, and taxes on alcohol and tobacco. (source) They also don't pay for prescriptions, that stopped in 2011, although the cost had been getting lower and lower over several years before that happened. Prescriptions cost only £3 before they were abolished and doing so lost the Scottish government £57m a year. (source) England is the only part of the UK that pays prescriptions and ours are £8.25 now. That would make quite a hefty income for Scotland, maybe about £160m a year at that same price. That would cover the loss made from the uni fees!
The main sticking point for a lot of people is the Scottish economy and it looks like the Yes lot are banking on a lot of income that's not stable or lasting. What are the odds that taxes are going to have to go up to cover all the free tuition and prescriptions, if nothing else. There has been mention of that already, that each person in an independent Scotland will face a rise in income tax of £1000 each. Banks and businesses are already making arrangements to leave the country for England. To paraphrase Robin Williams, "if your banks are hightailing it out of your country, WARNING!" If the banks are worried the economy is unsustainable, it makes me wonder if independence is such a good idea. Are they rats deserting a sinking ship?
There's various other costs that I thought of that I've not seen mentioned anywhere. An independent and non-EU member Scotland would need to reissue a lot of documentation, namely passports and driving licences. Currently UK driving licences specify that they are UK ones and also have an EU flag to allow for use throughout the EU (like this). Obviously, that would no longer apply to Scotland and they would have to replace all licenses. In 2005/6 there were 68m licence holders. (source) Are the motorists going to have to pay for a new licence? Also, these new licences will have to be accepted in the rest of the UK and the EU as well, for all those Scots who go driving in France or Spain or wherever they go on holiday. As for passports, that's going to throw up a huge bone of contention because that means deciding who is a Scottish citizen. If they just have everyone who is resident in the country at the time, a lot of those were born in the UK and may not want to be a Scottish citizen. There's also a lot of people who weren't born in the UK at all, who might want to keep their other citizenship, so are Scotland going to allow dual citizenship? Also a lot of Scots live in the UK and may want to be a Scottish citizen. A close family friend born in Scotland but living in Lancashire has said that he's always considered going back to Scotland in his later years but will he have to apply to be a Scottish citizen first? So once all the citizenshipness has been sorted out, there'll also have to be systems set up to deal with the mad rush of people applying for a Scottish passport, and we all know how well passport offices deal with mad rushes. And what of the cost of a new passport? A new UK passport costs £72.50 or £81.25 (renewal costs are the same) so imagine if you've just got a brand new UK passport and now you've got to pay again for a Scottish one. I really doubt it's going to be free.
There's just so many questions that aren't getting asked, never mind answered. It's as if when the clock strikes midnight on the day of Scotland's independence, all of these systems will just fall into place by magic and everything will go along as before. Is there going to be a border crossing put in place and huge tailbacks will become a daily occurrence like there is for entering Gibraltar? Is Hadrian's Wall going to get rebuilt asap to stop the floods of people leaving Scotland for sanctuary in England? Will the Hogwarts Express have to stop and be subject to a border search? I think we're better off staying as we are, there's just far too much uncertainty to be able to say that independence would be a good thing.
So those are my thoughts on the matter. I think there's only one person on my friends list currently in Scotland but I'm still interested as to what the rest of you think.
Poll The Independence Determination
I've been a bit gobsmacked by the amount of people who have said they want to be independent purely because they didn't vote for a Conservative Government. You're not the only ones! There's been a strong tradition of Labour voting in the North as well as Scotland, but you don't see us demanding to become an independent state! You just sit tight and wait for the next election in 5 years. It just seems like a banal reason for independence, especially when governments change but independence is forever. That's one irrevocable vote.
Over the past few weeks as this whole thing has hotted up, I've begun to realise what a smarmy get Alex Salmond is. I get the feeling that he's treating this as his big moment, not Scotland's. He wants to be the one remembered for this historic decision. I know politicians are famous for not answering questions but Salmond seems to take it to extremes. There was something not so long ago where he was being asked what currency an independent Scotland would use and he just kept repeating that they'll keep the pound; no matter what was put to him, that was his response over and over again. Avoiding the question does not further your cause!
I've been going over a lot of the details as best I can to see what the reality of an independent Scotland would be like and I'm not sure I like what I see. Salmond and the Yes lot are banking on North Sea Oil as being their main source of income which seems mad because in the first place, it's not going to last forever. In the second place, it's not a guaranteed amount of income either as the price varies so much. It's been slowly dropping over the past few years as it is, from $112 a barrel in 2011 to $103 today. According to Sir Ian Wood, lauded by both Salmond and Cameron as the foremost expert, there's only 35 years worth of oil left and the decline will start in 15 years. (source) 15 years!? I knew it wouldn't last for much longer but I didn't think it was going to be that quick. I do wonder if that's why Cameron has been so quick to allow fracking in the UK, so that we have some source of gas for ourselves and we can't be held hostage by Scotland for it.
It seems that the Yes lot are also banking on export of Scottish whisky to bring in a substantial amount of revenue, despite the fact that it again is such a volatile market. Last year, exports to China dropped by 30% due to the Chinese government clamping down on luxury items, and exports to Taiwan, Japan and South Korea also dropped by 13-15%. (source) It seems that while they're exporting into newer countries, such as Poland, the value of those exports is dropping. (source) That's not a good sign.
I'm also not sure that Scotland will be a major player on an international scale straight away. The UK does have a fair bit of clout for our size and I presume, up until now, Scotland has had the might of the UK behind it. But when it's out there on its own? That's got to be a different story. I don't know what international markets think of tiny new countries, but I don't imagine they're very trusting right from the off. Obviously Scotland does have some history behind it but I'm still not sure it's going to be looked on favourably as a major player. How is that going to affect their exports? Whisky counts for 85% of their food and drink exports which is a high amount just on one thing. I think the rest is probably made up of Irn Bru, Tunnocks teacakes and wafers, and Walkers shortbread.
Then there's the controversy over what currency they will use. Salmond is determined to use pound despite the Bank of England saying no way, not on your Nellie, matey. If they do continue to use it despite that, what kind of value is it going to have? I mean, what reserve does Scotland have for any currency anyway? Is it going to end up like Canada, where their dollar is worth slightly less than the US one? And is the Scottish pound going to be accepted in the rest of the UK? Scottish banknotes aren't technically legal tender here as it is, they're allowed because there's an agreement within the banks which makes me wonder if that's likely to carry on should Scotland gain independence and continue to use the pound anyway.
There's also a lot riding on whether Scotland will continue to be part of the EU. The Yes lot seem to be assuming they will be part of EU automatically, even though the EU says nope, you'll have to apply like everyone else. In which case, Scotland may have to use the Euro as it's a requisite for being part of EU. The UK (and Denmark) are exempt from that as part of the Maastrict Treaty but if Scotland is no longer part of the UK, will that continue to apply to them? Some Scottish people have been saying they'd rather use the Euro than the pound anyway but I'm still not sure how well that would go down there. And it'd be a huge pain in the arse for them too, they'd have to have Euros for use in Scotland but pounds for any time they came into the rest of the UK. Can you imagine having to keep hold of a different currency, just in case you decided to have a day trip to the Lake District?
There's also a few things that are free in Scotland compared to other parts of the UK and obviously, the public would probably like and expect for those free things to continue, but how much is that costing the Scottish government and are they going to be able to continue to afford it? There are currently no university fees and Nicola Sturgeon, the deputy first minister said that they won't be bringing in uni fees in the future. (source) However, students from England, Wales and Northern Ireland do have to pay to study at Scottish unis, although that will change in a independent Scotland, resulting in a loss of £150m a year. (source) That's quite a chunk! The Sunday Post (Scottish newspaper) mentioned this ages ago, they were concerned that Scottish universities would lose a huge amount of revenue as a result. EU students can currently study for free at a university in another EU state - it doesn't work in the UK because it's all one state at the moment. But if Scotland gains independence, then students from the rest of the UK can study there for free. And how much more attractive would that be to prospective students? Why pay £9,000 a year to some English uni when you could go to St Andrews or Edinburgh for free? You'd be daft not to!
Scots pay less income tax because there's less in the way of high incomes in Scotland, but they contribute more through VAT, and taxes on alcohol and tobacco. (source) They also don't pay for prescriptions, that stopped in 2011, although the cost had been getting lower and lower over several years before that happened. Prescriptions cost only £3 before they were abolished and doing so lost the Scottish government £57m a year. (source) England is the only part of the UK that pays prescriptions and ours are £8.25 now. That would make quite a hefty income for Scotland, maybe about £160m a year at that same price. That would cover the loss made from the uni fees!
The main sticking point for a lot of people is the Scottish economy and it looks like the Yes lot are banking on a lot of income that's not stable or lasting. What are the odds that taxes are going to have to go up to cover all the free tuition and prescriptions, if nothing else. There has been mention of that already, that each person in an independent Scotland will face a rise in income tax of £1000 each. Banks and businesses are already making arrangements to leave the country for England. To paraphrase Robin Williams, "if your banks are hightailing it out of your country, WARNING!" If the banks are worried the economy is unsustainable, it makes me wonder if independence is such a good idea. Are they rats deserting a sinking ship?
There's various other costs that I thought of that I've not seen mentioned anywhere. An independent and non-EU member Scotland would need to reissue a lot of documentation, namely passports and driving licences. Currently UK driving licences specify that they are UK ones and also have an EU flag to allow for use throughout the EU (like this). Obviously, that would no longer apply to Scotland and they would have to replace all licenses. In 2005/6 there were 68m licence holders. (source) Are the motorists going to have to pay for a new licence? Also, these new licences will have to be accepted in the rest of the UK and the EU as well, for all those Scots who go driving in France or Spain or wherever they go on holiday. As for passports, that's going to throw up a huge bone of contention because that means deciding who is a Scottish citizen. If they just have everyone who is resident in the country at the time, a lot of those were born in the UK and may not want to be a Scottish citizen. There's also a lot of people who weren't born in the UK at all, who might want to keep their other citizenship, so are Scotland going to allow dual citizenship? Also a lot of Scots live in the UK and may want to be a Scottish citizen. A close family friend born in Scotland but living in Lancashire has said that he's always considered going back to Scotland in his later years but will he have to apply to be a Scottish citizen first? So once all the citizenshipness has been sorted out, there'll also have to be systems set up to deal with the mad rush of people applying for a Scottish passport, and we all know how well passport offices deal with mad rushes. And what of the cost of a new passport? A new UK passport costs £72.50 or £81.25 (renewal costs are the same) so imagine if you've just got a brand new UK passport and now you've got to pay again for a Scottish one. I really doubt it's going to be free.
There's just so many questions that aren't getting asked, never mind answered. It's as if when the clock strikes midnight on the day of Scotland's independence, all of these systems will just fall into place by magic and everything will go along as before. Is there going to be a border crossing put in place and huge tailbacks will become a daily occurrence like there is for entering Gibraltar? Is Hadrian's Wall going to get rebuilt asap to stop the floods of people leaving Scotland for sanctuary in England? Will the Hogwarts Express have to stop and be subject to a border search? I think we're better off staying as we are, there's just far too much uncertainty to be able to say that independence would be a good thing.
So those are my thoughts on the matter. I think there's only one person on my friends list currently in Scotland but I'm still interested as to what the rest of you think.
Poll The Independence Determination