IT'S THE MOST WONDERFUL TIME OF THE YEAR...
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As promised, my predictions...
Best animated feature film of the year
CARS
HAPPY FEET
MONSTER HOUSE
Should Win: The only one I saw was Monster House, which was good, so let's go with that.
Will Win: Pixar does it again. Cars.
Achievement in art direction
DREAMGIRLS
THE GOOD SHEPHERD
PAN'S LABYRINTH
PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MAN'S CHEST
THE PRESTIGE
Should Win: Is there any doubt? Pan's Labyrinth. It created a beautiful and imaginative fantasy world not seen since the likes of The Wizard of Oz. Or, okay, Labyrinth.
Will Win: It comes down to Pan's Labyrinth and Dreamgirls in a pretty close race. A Dreamgirls sweep is not unlikely, but then again, what's the point of a sweep if the movie isn't even nominated for Best Picture? I'd say, for once, voters have the good sense to choose the more interesting choice, Pan's Labyrinth.
Achievement in cinematography
THE BLACK DAHLIA
CHILDREN OF MEN
THE ILLUSIONIST
PAN'S LABYRINTH
THE PRESTIGE
Should Win: Children of Men. Breathtaking.
Will Win: Oh Black Dahlia, how did you get an Oscar nomination? Ah, no matter. Notice that none of these are Best Picture contenders. It's an interesting race. The only movies with a high enough profile to win here are Children of Men and Pan's Labyrinth. Either could take it. But if Pan's wins its much-deserved art direction award, Children of Men should get rewarded here.
Achievement in costume design
CURSE OF THE GOLDEN FLOWER
THE DEVIL WEARS PRADA
DREAMGIRLS
MARIE ANTOINETTE
THE QUEEN
Should Win: Marie Antoinette might be the deserving contender...
Will Win: ...But Dreamgirls is likely to rack up as many awards as it can in the "overall prettiness" categories.
Achievement in film editing
BABEL
BLOOD DIAMOND
CHILDREN OF MEN
THE DEPARTED
UNITED 93
Should Win: Though much of it was impressive because of not cutting, Children of Men had seamless editing. Both that and United 93 were so tight and well-paced that one forgets they're watching a movie, but I give the edge to Children.
Will Win: Probably The Departed, a high-profile favorite that cut between two parallel characters effortlessly.
Best foreign language film of the year
AFTER THE WEDDING
DAYS OF GLORY (INDIGÈNES)
THE LIVES OF OTHERS
PAN'S LABYRINTH
WATER
This year, there's actually a movie nominated that the mainstream has heard of. That almost certainly means victory for the acclaimed Pan's Labyrinth. I'm on board with that.
Achievement in makeup
APOCALYPTO
CLICK
PAN'S LABYRINTH
If Click wins an Oscar, I quit. Luckily, this should and will go to Pan's Labyrinth.
Original score
BABEL
THE GOOD GERMAN
NOTES ON A SCANDAL
PAN'S LABYRINTH
THE QUEEN
Alexandre Desplat's The Queen score has the right pedigree, and will probably take the gold. Fine by me...it's a good one.
Original song
"I Need to Wake Up" - AN INCONVENIENT TRUTH
"Listen" - DREAMGIRLS
"Love You I Do" - DREAMGIRLS
"Our Town" - CARS
"Patience" - DREAMGIRLS
Without a doubt, something from Dreamgirls will take this. Let's go with "Listen," since that's Beyonce's number (though "Love You I Do" is much catchier).
Best animated short film
THE DANISH POET
LIFTED
THE LITTLE MATCHGIRL
MAESTRO
NO TIME FOR NUTS
Not that I've seen any of them, but I'm predicting the cute CG Maestro, just 'cause.
Best live action short film
BINTA AND THE GREAT IDEA (BINTA Y LA GRAN IDEA)
ÉRAMOS POCOS (ONE TOO MANY)
HELMER & SON
THE SAVIOUR
WEST BANK STORY
Again, I've seen none, but Eramos Pocos sounds like a likely winner.
Achievement in sound editing
APOCALYPTO
BLOOD DIAMOND
FLAGS OF OUR FATHERS
LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA
PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MAN'S CHEST
The Clint Eastwood war movies cancel each other out. Blood Diamond and Apocalypto might, too, leaving the swashbuckling actioner Pirates to take the Oscar booty. I'm not passionate enough about the sound in any of these movies to care either way.
Achievement in sound mixing
APOCALYPTO
BLOOD DIAMOND
DREAMGIRLS
FLAGS OF OUR FATHERS
PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MAN'S CHEST
The standout here is Dreamgirls, since musicals typically do well in this category. Again, I'm not passionate enough about the sound in any of these movies to care, so viva la Dreamgirls.
Achievement in visual effects
PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MAN'S CHEST
POSEIDON
SUPERMAN RETURNS
No one saw Poseidon (possibly not even the people who did the visual effects). Not only is Pirates by far the biggest hit, its effects also stand out a lot more, making it a sure thing to win here. It deserves to.
Adapted screenplay
BORAT: CULTURAL LEARNINGS OF AMERICA FOR MAKE BENEFIT GLORIOUS NATION OF KAZAKHSTAN
CHILDREN OF MEN
THE DEPARTED
LITTLE CHILDREN
NOTES ON A SCANDAL
Should Win: I'm not sure Borat really needed to be nominated here...really? Screenplay? But it pains me to have to choose between the other four. Children of Men was the strongest film here, but I credit the direction more than the screenplay. Notes on a Scandal's most notewrothy attribute were the performances from its leading ladies, and The Departed was a great script but trumped by Scorsese's direction. That leaves Little Children, alternately funny, touching, and creepy, but always smart and engaging.
Will Win: The Departed has the most momentum.
Original screenplay
BABEL
LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA
LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE
PAN'S LABYRINTH
THE QUEEN
Should Win: Pan's Labyrinth, for it's imaginative and innovative storytelling.
Will Win: Little Miss Sunshine, which will be rewarded here because it wasn't elsewhere.
Best documentary feature
DELIVER US FROM EVIL
AN INCONVENIENT TRUTH
IRAQ IN FRAGMENTS
JESUS CAMP
MY COUNTRY, MY COUNTRY
I didn't see any of them this year, but An Inconvenient Truth has by far the highest profile, and is likely to win. So you're not President, Al Gore, but getting an Oscar is a nice consolation.
Best documentary short subject
THE BLOOD OF YINGZHOU DISTRICT
RECYCLED LIFE
REHEARSING A DREAM
TWO HANDS
Two Hands sounds like it has Oscar written all over it...
Performance by an actor in a leading role
Leonardo DiCaprio - BLOOD DIAMOND
Ryan Gosling - HALF NELSON
Peter O'Toole - VENUS
Will Smith - THE PURSUIT OF HAPPYNESS
Forest Whitaker - THE LAST KING OF SCOTLAND
Should Win: Tough call. There's no doubt that Forest Whitaker was good, but his role was almost a supporting one, and it's a showier role. (I was more impressed by his costar James McAvoy.) I prefer the more understated Ryan Gosling. However, in light of his two very good performances (and two spot on accents) I might also give this one to DiCaprio, who has gone underrated for years.
Will Win: DiCaprio might have had it if he'd only been nominated for The Departed. O'Toole still has a fighting chance, but Venus itself has not received much attention. It looks like Forest.
Performance by an actor in a supporting role
Alan Arkin - LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE
Jackie Earle Haley - LITTLE CHILDREN
Djimon Hounsou - BLOOD DIAMOND
Eddie Murphy - DREAMGIRLS
Mark Wahlberg - THE DEPARTED
Should Win: Strange, that of all the stars in The Departed, it was Wahlberg who got the nomination. Not that he wasn't good. I didn't find anything too special about Djimon Hounsou in Blood Diamond, but Alan Arkin shined in a standout ensemble. Eddie Murphy was also surprisingly good, but he was also recently in Norbit, and that is unforgivable. He's going to have to work harder to make up for the slate of shit he's shoveled at us over the past decade. That means my award goes to Jackie Earle Haley, who was creepy yet kind of sympathetic in Little Children, freaking us out just when we'd started to feel for him.
Will Win: Arkin has an ever-so-slight chance for an upset, but it's unlikely. It'll be Murphy. Dreamgirls needs to recoup its losses not being nominated for the other major awards.
Performance by an actress in a leading role
Penélope Cruz - VOLVER
Judi Dench - NOTES ON A SCANDAL
Helen Mirren - THE QUEEN
Meryl Streep - THE DEVIL WEARS PRADA
Kate Winslet - LITTLE CHILDREN
Should Win: Everyone! Mirren's much-hyped performance was, indeed, a nice embodiment of the Queen, but it wasn't my favorite of the year. Streep once again carried a film that, without her, would have been nothing (just watch most of the scenes she isn't in). Personally, I'm tempted to go with Cruz, who displayed a radiance we haven't quite seen from her in Hollywood fare. We expect Dench, Streep, Mirren, and Winslet to be good...but who knew Penelope could hold her own with them?
Will Win: If you have to ask, you have no business watching the Oscars.
Performance by an actress in a supporting role
Adriana Barraza - BABEL
Cate Blanchett - NOTES ON A SCANDAL
Abigail Breslin - LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE
Jennifer Hudson - DREAMGIRLS
Rinko Kikuchi - BABEL
Should Win: I admire Barraza's emotive performance as a Mexican nanny and Kikuchi's dedication to her role (she learned sign language before she was even cast), but I'm going to go with the only old pro here, Cate Blanchett, because she's just that divine.
Will Win: Jennifer Hudson, who was as good as can be in a movie that basically left her hanging after her big number. (In a stronger movie, I might have wanted her to win too.)
Achievement in directing
BABEL
THE DEPARTED
LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA
THE QUEEN
UNITED 93
Should Win: As much as I love Scorsese, I'd be more content to see his film take Best Picture and this award go to Paul Greengrass for his astounding achievement in United 93. (By the way, it's a crime that Alfonso Cuaron wasn't nominated here.)
Will Win: Clint Eastwood won too recently. The Academy loves him, but I think they're ready to move on. Stephen Frears' The Queen was too quiet and understated a film to take this award. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu may have enjoyed buzz from the Golden Globes win of Babel, but the buzz on that has been cooled by all the people who were afraid it might win Best Picture. Paul Greengrass and United 93 don't have enough support in other categories. That means this is almost certainly Marty's year, and I'll be happy to see him up there.
Best motion picture of the year
BABEL
THE DEPARTED
LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA
LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE
THE QUEEN
Should Win: As usual, most of these films aren't even in my Top 10 of the year. I enjoyed Babel but came away from it, ironically enough, not quite knowing what it was trying to say. Letters From Iwo Jima was beautifully done and far superior to Eastwood's American side of the story, but I admired it more than I connected to it. The Queen also kept me at something of a distance, despite interesting subject matter and great performances. And Little Miss Sunshine was cute, fun, and had a great ensemble, but at times felt like it was trying too hard to be the Little Indie That Could (no thanks to its cloying marketing). Only The Departed made the cut on my Best Of List, and upon a second viewing this weekend, I stand by that choice.
Will Win: The race is fairly open. It's conceivable that any of these could take it. Sunshine is probably too quirky and indie, and a bit lightweight, and the focus on The Queen has been placed back on its central performance. Count them out. As for the rest, Letters From Iwo Jima didn't find a wide audience and is in a foreign language, and Babel has a fairly heavy backlash after winning the Golden Globe. But pretty much everyone liked The Departed, a hit with critics and audiences alike helmed by one of the great filmmakers working today and starring some of our finest actors. What's not to love? Exactly.
As promised, my predictions...
Best animated feature film of the year
CARS
HAPPY FEET
MONSTER HOUSE
Should Win: The only one I saw was Monster House, which was good, so let's go with that.
Will Win: Pixar does it again. Cars.
Achievement in art direction
DREAMGIRLS
THE GOOD SHEPHERD
PAN'S LABYRINTH
PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MAN'S CHEST
THE PRESTIGE
Should Win: Is there any doubt? Pan's Labyrinth. It created a beautiful and imaginative fantasy world not seen since the likes of The Wizard of Oz. Or, okay, Labyrinth.
Will Win: It comes down to Pan's Labyrinth and Dreamgirls in a pretty close race. A Dreamgirls sweep is not unlikely, but then again, what's the point of a sweep if the movie isn't even nominated for Best Picture? I'd say, for once, voters have the good sense to choose the more interesting choice, Pan's Labyrinth.
Achievement in cinematography
THE BLACK DAHLIA
CHILDREN OF MEN
THE ILLUSIONIST
PAN'S LABYRINTH
THE PRESTIGE
Should Win: Children of Men. Breathtaking.
Will Win: Oh Black Dahlia, how did you get an Oscar nomination? Ah, no matter. Notice that none of these are Best Picture contenders. It's an interesting race. The only movies with a high enough profile to win here are Children of Men and Pan's Labyrinth. Either could take it. But if Pan's wins its much-deserved art direction award, Children of Men should get rewarded here.
Achievement in costume design
CURSE OF THE GOLDEN FLOWER
THE DEVIL WEARS PRADA
DREAMGIRLS
MARIE ANTOINETTE
THE QUEEN
Should Win: Marie Antoinette might be the deserving contender...
Will Win: ...But Dreamgirls is likely to rack up as many awards as it can in the "overall prettiness" categories.
Achievement in film editing
BABEL
BLOOD DIAMOND
CHILDREN OF MEN
THE DEPARTED
UNITED 93
Should Win: Though much of it was impressive because of not cutting, Children of Men had seamless editing. Both that and United 93 were so tight and well-paced that one forgets they're watching a movie, but I give the edge to Children.
Will Win: Probably The Departed, a high-profile favorite that cut between two parallel characters effortlessly.
Best foreign language film of the year
AFTER THE WEDDING
DAYS OF GLORY (INDIGÈNES)
THE LIVES OF OTHERS
PAN'S LABYRINTH
WATER
This year, there's actually a movie nominated that the mainstream has heard of. That almost certainly means victory for the acclaimed Pan's Labyrinth. I'm on board with that.
Achievement in makeup
APOCALYPTO
CLICK
PAN'S LABYRINTH
If Click wins an Oscar, I quit. Luckily, this should and will go to Pan's Labyrinth.
Original score
BABEL
THE GOOD GERMAN
NOTES ON A SCANDAL
PAN'S LABYRINTH
THE QUEEN
Alexandre Desplat's The Queen score has the right pedigree, and will probably take the gold. Fine by me...it's a good one.
Original song
"I Need to Wake Up" - AN INCONVENIENT TRUTH
"Listen" - DREAMGIRLS
"Love You I Do" - DREAMGIRLS
"Our Town" - CARS
"Patience" - DREAMGIRLS
Without a doubt, something from Dreamgirls will take this. Let's go with "Listen," since that's Beyonce's number (though "Love You I Do" is much catchier).
Best animated short film
THE DANISH POET
LIFTED
THE LITTLE MATCHGIRL
MAESTRO
NO TIME FOR NUTS
Not that I've seen any of them, but I'm predicting the cute CG Maestro, just 'cause.
Best live action short film
BINTA AND THE GREAT IDEA (BINTA Y LA GRAN IDEA)
ÉRAMOS POCOS (ONE TOO MANY)
HELMER & SON
THE SAVIOUR
WEST BANK STORY
Again, I've seen none, but Eramos Pocos sounds like a likely winner.
Achievement in sound editing
APOCALYPTO
BLOOD DIAMOND
FLAGS OF OUR FATHERS
LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA
PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MAN'S CHEST
The Clint Eastwood war movies cancel each other out. Blood Diamond and Apocalypto might, too, leaving the swashbuckling actioner Pirates to take the Oscar booty. I'm not passionate enough about the sound in any of these movies to care either way.
Achievement in sound mixing
APOCALYPTO
BLOOD DIAMOND
DREAMGIRLS
FLAGS OF OUR FATHERS
PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MAN'S CHEST
The standout here is Dreamgirls, since musicals typically do well in this category. Again, I'm not passionate enough about the sound in any of these movies to care, so viva la Dreamgirls.
Achievement in visual effects
PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MAN'S CHEST
POSEIDON
SUPERMAN RETURNS
No one saw Poseidon (possibly not even the people who did the visual effects). Not only is Pirates by far the biggest hit, its effects also stand out a lot more, making it a sure thing to win here. It deserves to.
Adapted screenplay
BORAT: CULTURAL LEARNINGS OF AMERICA FOR MAKE BENEFIT GLORIOUS NATION OF KAZAKHSTAN
CHILDREN OF MEN
THE DEPARTED
LITTLE CHILDREN
NOTES ON A SCANDAL
Should Win: I'm not sure Borat really needed to be nominated here...really? Screenplay? But it pains me to have to choose between the other four. Children of Men was the strongest film here, but I credit the direction more than the screenplay. Notes on a Scandal's most notewrothy attribute were the performances from its leading ladies, and The Departed was a great script but trumped by Scorsese's direction. That leaves Little Children, alternately funny, touching, and creepy, but always smart and engaging.
Will Win: The Departed has the most momentum.
Original screenplay
BABEL
LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA
LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE
PAN'S LABYRINTH
THE QUEEN
Should Win: Pan's Labyrinth, for it's imaginative and innovative storytelling.
Will Win: Little Miss Sunshine, which will be rewarded here because it wasn't elsewhere.
Best documentary feature
DELIVER US FROM EVIL
AN INCONVENIENT TRUTH
IRAQ IN FRAGMENTS
JESUS CAMP
MY COUNTRY, MY COUNTRY
I didn't see any of them this year, but An Inconvenient Truth has by far the highest profile, and is likely to win. So you're not President, Al Gore, but getting an Oscar is a nice consolation.
Best documentary short subject
THE BLOOD OF YINGZHOU DISTRICT
RECYCLED LIFE
REHEARSING A DREAM
TWO HANDS
Two Hands sounds like it has Oscar written all over it...
Performance by an actor in a leading role
Leonardo DiCaprio - BLOOD DIAMOND
Ryan Gosling - HALF NELSON
Peter O'Toole - VENUS
Will Smith - THE PURSUIT OF HAPPYNESS
Forest Whitaker - THE LAST KING OF SCOTLAND
Should Win: Tough call. There's no doubt that Forest Whitaker was good, but his role was almost a supporting one, and it's a showier role. (I was more impressed by his costar James McAvoy.) I prefer the more understated Ryan Gosling. However, in light of his two very good performances (and two spot on accents) I might also give this one to DiCaprio, who has gone underrated for years.
Will Win: DiCaprio might have had it if he'd only been nominated for The Departed. O'Toole still has a fighting chance, but Venus itself has not received much attention. It looks like Forest.
Performance by an actor in a supporting role
Alan Arkin - LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE
Jackie Earle Haley - LITTLE CHILDREN
Djimon Hounsou - BLOOD DIAMOND
Eddie Murphy - DREAMGIRLS
Mark Wahlberg - THE DEPARTED
Should Win: Strange, that of all the stars in The Departed, it was Wahlberg who got the nomination. Not that he wasn't good. I didn't find anything too special about Djimon Hounsou in Blood Diamond, but Alan Arkin shined in a standout ensemble. Eddie Murphy was also surprisingly good, but he was also recently in Norbit, and that is unforgivable. He's going to have to work harder to make up for the slate of shit he's shoveled at us over the past decade. That means my award goes to Jackie Earle Haley, who was creepy yet kind of sympathetic in Little Children, freaking us out just when we'd started to feel for him.
Will Win: Arkin has an ever-so-slight chance for an upset, but it's unlikely. It'll be Murphy. Dreamgirls needs to recoup its losses not being nominated for the other major awards.
Performance by an actress in a leading role
Penélope Cruz - VOLVER
Judi Dench - NOTES ON A SCANDAL
Helen Mirren - THE QUEEN
Meryl Streep - THE DEVIL WEARS PRADA
Kate Winslet - LITTLE CHILDREN
Should Win: Everyone! Mirren's much-hyped performance was, indeed, a nice embodiment of the Queen, but it wasn't my favorite of the year. Streep once again carried a film that, without her, would have been nothing (just watch most of the scenes she isn't in). Personally, I'm tempted to go with Cruz, who displayed a radiance we haven't quite seen from her in Hollywood fare. We expect Dench, Streep, Mirren, and Winslet to be good...but who knew Penelope could hold her own with them?
Will Win: If you have to ask, you have no business watching the Oscars.
Performance by an actress in a supporting role
Adriana Barraza - BABEL
Cate Blanchett - NOTES ON A SCANDAL
Abigail Breslin - LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE
Jennifer Hudson - DREAMGIRLS
Rinko Kikuchi - BABEL
Should Win: I admire Barraza's emotive performance as a Mexican nanny and Kikuchi's dedication to her role (she learned sign language before she was even cast), but I'm going to go with the only old pro here, Cate Blanchett, because she's just that divine.
Will Win: Jennifer Hudson, who was as good as can be in a movie that basically left her hanging after her big number. (In a stronger movie, I might have wanted her to win too.)
Achievement in directing
BABEL
THE DEPARTED
LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA
THE QUEEN
UNITED 93
Should Win: As much as I love Scorsese, I'd be more content to see his film take Best Picture and this award go to Paul Greengrass for his astounding achievement in United 93. (By the way, it's a crime that Alfonso Cuaron wasn't nominated here.)
Will Win: Clint Eastwood won too recently. The Academy loves him, but I think they're ready to move on. Stephen Frears' The Queen was too quiet and understated a film to take this award. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu may have enjoyed buzz from the Golden Globes win of Babel, but the buzz on that has been cooled by all the people who were afraid it might win Best Picture. Paul Greengrass and United 93 don't have enough support in other categories. That means this is almost certainly Marty's year, and I'll be happy to see him up there.
Best motion picture of the year
BABEL
THE DEPARTED
LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA
LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE
THE QUEEN
Should Win: As usual, most of these films aren't even in my Top 10 of the year. I enjoyed Babel but came away from it, ironically enough, not quite knowing what it was trying to say. Letters From Iwo Jima was beautifully done and far superior to Eastwood's American side of the story, but I admired it more than I connected to it. The Queen also kept me at something of a distance, despite interesting subject matter and great performances. And Little Miss Sunshine was cute, fun, and had a great ensemble, but at times felt like it was trying too hard to be the Little Indie That Could (no thanks to its cloying marketing). Only The Departed made the cut on my Best Of List, and upon a second viewing this weekend, I stand by that choice.
Will Win: The race is fairly open. It's conceivable that any of these could take it. Sunshine is probably too quirky and indie, and a bit lightweight, and the focus on The Queen has been placed back on its central performance. Count them out. As for the rest, Letters From Iwo Jima didn't find a wide audience and is in a foreign language, and Babel has a fairly heavy backlash after winning the Golden Globe. But pretty much everyone liked The Departed, a hit with critics and audiences alike helmed by one of the great filmmakers working today and starring some of our finest actors. What's not to love? Exactly.